Emre Yumlu 
For more than a decade, Bitcoin’s price movements were commonly interpreted through the lens of its four-year halving cycle. However, in the era of growing institutional participation, this long-standing framework may no longer be sufficient. According to Bitwise analyst Jeff Park, Bitcoin has entered a new phase driven by structural market factors, and the dominant rhythm of the market is transitioning toward two-year price cycles.
Park argues that this shift stems from the decreasing influence of supply-driven shocks. While miner economics and halving events once played a major role in shaping medium-term market behavior, those variables have lost their power. Instead, Bitcoin’s trajectory today is increasingly dictated by ETF flows and institutional decision-making patterns.
The End of the Old Bitcoin Cycle: Supply Impact Diminishes
Historically, Bitcoin major bull runs were reinforced by a combination of reduced supply, rising media attention, and aggressive retail participation. These elements created a self-reinforcing cycle that repeatedly aligned with the halving timeline. Park asserts that this model no longer defines the market, noting that supply constraints have limited influence in an environment dominated by large asset managers.
In the institutional era, fund managers’ year-end performance targets and liquidity considerations have become central to Bitcoin’s price behavior.
Inside the ETF Era: A New Two-Year Decision Cycle
Park highlights that professional investors tend to reassess their risk exposure around annual P&L periods, making them more likely to exit volatile assets during periods of uncertainty. Even prolonged sideways movement, he notes, can trigger selling pressure.
Another structural factor is the divide between ETF inflows. While most capital that entered during 2024 remains in profit, a significant portion of 2025 entrants is underwater. This creates a decision crossroads for institutional players:
-
wait for a stronger rally, or
-
consider exiting positions at a loss.
This dynamic could form a pivotal stress point within Bitcoin’s emerging two-year cycle.
The Significance of the 84,000 Dollar Region
Park emphasizes that the current price area around 84,000 dollars is a key threshold for ETF investors, serving as a rough average cost basis for many institutions. Large inflows recorded between October and November 2024 mean these investors require substantial performance through 2026 to meet their compounded return expectations. Failure to achieve this may activate the two-year evaluation window and potentially introduce new waves of institutional selling.
Time as a Pressure Mechanism
One of Park’s most notable claims is that time itself has become a headwind. Bitcoin is often presented to investment committees as an asset capable of generating annualized returns of 25–30 percent. When price growth stalls, the expected return profile declines even without a drop in price, weakening Bitcoin appeal relative to its risk. In the institutional environment, this could trigger a new form of structural sell pressure.
You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.