Emre Yumlu 
The year 2025 has already proven to be historic for gold markets. Since the start of the year, the precious metal has surged nearly 40%, recently hitting an all-time high of $3,564 per ounce. Riding on this momentum, Goldman Sachs has unveiled an ambitious projection that has captured the attention of global investors.
Fed Independence in Question: A Catalyst for Gold
According to Goldman Sachs analysts, any erosion of the Federal Reserve’s independence could trigger a powerful new rally for gold. The bank emphasized that even a minor shift of capital out of U.S. Treasuries into bullion would be enough to send prices sharply higher.
Samantha Dart, one of the leading voices behind the report, noted:
“If just 1% of the U.S. Treasury market were to flow into gold, we estimate that the price could reach nearly $5,000 per ounce.”
Gold as a Value Anchor
The report highlighted one of gold’s enduring strengths: it does not rely on institutional trust. Analysts explained that if Fed credibility were undermined, it could result in higher inflation, weaker equities, declining long-term bond prices, and erosion of the dollar’s reserve currency status. In contrast, gold remains a reliable store of value outside institutional structures.
Political Pressures Stir Market Anxiety
Recent political dynamics have only intensified concerns. President Donald Trump’s attempts to exert greater control over the Fed—including efforts to remove board member Lisa Cook—have sparked debate about the central bank’s autonomy. While Cook has resisted such moves and pursued legal action, the episode is being closely monitored as no Fed governor has ever been removed in U.S. history.
Adding to the discussion, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned that weakening the Fed’s institutional resilience could pose a “serious threat” to the global financial system.
Three Scenarios: $4,000, $4,500, and $5,000
Goldman Sachs outlined three potential paths for gold prices:
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Base Case: $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026
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Upside Case: $4,500 per ounce
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Tail-Risk Scenario: Close to $5,000 per ounce (if 1% of U.S. Treasuries shift to gold)
The bank reiterated that gold remains its highest-conviction long recommendation in the commodities sector.
Central Bank Buying and Rate Cut Bets Fueling Momentum
Much of gold’s strength this year has been driven by robust central bank purchases and market expectations that the Fed will soon move toward interest rate cuts. These factors, combined with political uncertainty and rising demand for safe-haven assets, have reinforced gold’s status as one of the best-performing commodities in 2025.
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