Emre Yumlu 
After a challenging November, the crypto market is entering December with renewed speculation about whether Bitcoin (BTC) could stage a recovery. Analysts at Coinbase Institutional point to improving global liquidity conditions and rising expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut as potential catalysts. Still, the decisive factor for the market’s short-term trajectory may be the tone adopted by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Liquidity Expansion and Fed Expectations Shape Market Outlook
Coinbase highlights that the expansion in global M2 money supply and the growing probability of a December rate cut—now exceeding 90 percent—are setting a supportive backdrop for digital assets. In its latest assessment, the institution noted that strengthening liquidity conditions, combined with expectations of monetary policy easing, may help crypto markets regain momentum before the year ends.
The firm previously signaled in October that a market shift was likely toward the end of the year, driven by trends in global money supply. Despite these improving macro indicators, investor sentiment remains deeply cautious. Both institutional and retail participants appear reluctant to increase exposure, and weaker ETF inflows have left the broader market in a holding pattern.
Powell’s Messaging Could Set the Tone for Early 2026
A potential rate cut in December could trigger a short-term year-end rally similar to traditional market patterns. However, what comes after that may depend largely on Powell’s forward-looking guidance.
Nic Puckrin, analyst and co-founder of Coin Bureau, argues that easing monetary policy would remove a significant barrier for Bitcoin, opening the door to renewed upside. Yet he emphasizes that markets will scrutinize every element of Powell’s press conference. Even a slightly hawkish tone, he notes, could limit the strength of any rally.
Technical Signals Improve, but Macro Drivers Dominate
Some analysts attribute November’s selling pressure to earlier hawkish Fed commentary but believe December could mark the start of a rebound. Chris Kim, CEO of Axis, points out that Bitcoin has already retested the $80,000 range and its 100-week moving average, both of which signal underlying resilience. He also notes that expanded ETF trading access is adding incremental support.
Looking further ahead, speculation surrounding the potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as the next Fed Chair in 2026 has introduced expectations of a more dovish policy stance. Such a shift could provide a meaningful long-term tailwind for crypto markets.
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