Haciyev Reşit 
Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency in the market, continues to remain in the spotlight as investors closely watch its recent sideways and weak price action. The fact that the price has been moving within a narrow range indicates prevailing uncertainty in the market. In response to the frequently asked question, “Can Bitcoin start rising again?”, a noteworthy assessment came from digital asset management firm Bitwise. Bitwise advisor Jeff Park stated that current market conditions do not support a strong upward move for Bitcoin and emphasized the need for caution in the short term.
Bitwise: Current Market Structure Is Challenging for Bitcoin
According to Jeff Park, the fundamental dynamics of the Bitcoin market pose significant obstacles to a strong short-term upside breakout. Park highlighted that early Bitcoin investors continuing to take profits are creating selling pressure on the price. The inability of incoming new buying demand to sufficiently offset this selling pressure is one of the key factors making it difficult for Bitcoin to gain strong upward momentum.
In addition, demand from Bitcoin spot ETFs and other digital asset investment products (DAPs) has slowed noticeably in recent periods. This stagnation on the institutional investor side limits fresh capital inflows into the market and weakens Bitcoin’s ability to move higher. This situation suggests that prices may continue to move sideways with a cautious tone in the short term.
Volatility Plays a Critical Role
Jeff Park notes that for Bitcoin to break out of its current tight trading range, the market needs to return to a higher and more sustained level of volatility. In particular, strengthening upside volatility stands out as a critical factor for a healthy uptrend.
Park recalled his statement from November, “volatility or death,” emphasizing that Bitcoin can only exit its prolonged stagnant phase through a sharp breakout. Although a temporary increase in volatility in November created short-lived optimism in the market, this expectation has weakened in recent weeks.
Notable Decline in Implied Volatility
According to Bitwise data, Bitcoin’s implied volatility rose to around 63% toward the end of November. However, over the past two weeks, it has fallen rapidly to approximately 44%. This decline signals reduced risk appetite in the market and a more cautious stance among investors. According to Jeff Park, if implied volatility remains at these levels, it will be difficult for Bitcoin to achieve strong upward momentum in the short term. If volatility does not begin to rise again, the price is likely to continue fluctuating within its current range. Jeff Park stated:
“For a sustainable rally in Bitcoin, not only the price but also volatility needs to gain upward strength. Without a clear recovery on the demand side, expecting a strong trend may not be realistic.”
Overall Assessment
Bitwise’s evaluations suggest that a rapid recovery in Bitcoin’s price may be difficult in the coming days. Early investor selling, slowing ETF demand, and declining volatility stand out as the main factors increasing pressure on the market. Factors such as the Bitcoin price, the Bitwise report, implied volatility, and ETF demand will continue to play a decisive role in shaping the short-term outlook. Investors are advised to closely monitor market data during this period.
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