Emre Yumlu 
Concerns around quantum computing and its potential impact on Bitcoin have resurfaced in recent months, reigniting debates about the network’s long-term security. While some narratives suggest an existential risk, a recent analysis by digital asset manager CoinShares argues that these fears are largely exaggerated. According to the firm, there is a significant gap between theoretical vulnerability and a realistic, market-disruptive threat.
How Much Bitcoin Is Actually Exposed?
Estimates circulating in the market often claim that 20% to 50% of Bitcoin’s total supply could eventually be compromised by quantum-enabled attacks. CoinShares challenges this view, stating that such figures conflate hypothetical exposure with coins that could feasibly be targeted and stolen at scale.
The analysis focuses on legacy Pay-to-Public-Key (P2PK) addresses, an older format in which public keys are permanently visible on-chain. Because these keys are openly accessible, they are theoretically more vulnerable if quantum computers become capable of reversing cryptographic signatures. CoinShares estimates that roughly 1.6 million BTC, or about 8% of total supply, resides in these address types.
Distribution Matters More Than Headlines
The most critical insight from the report lies not in the total number of potentially exposed coins, but in how they are distributed. CoinShares estimates that only around 10,200 BTC is concentrated in amounts large enough to cause meaningful market disruption if compromised.
The remaining coins are spread across more than 32,000 individual UTXOs, each holding an average of approximately 50 BTC. This fragmented structure significantly reduces the appeal of a quantum attack. Instead of breaching a single large wallet, an attacker would need to crack thousands of separate outputs individually, making the process slower, more expensive, and far more detectable.
Technological Reality and Timeline
From a technical standpoint, CoinShares argues that breaking Bitcoin’s cryptography would require fault-tolerant quantum systems around 100,000 times more powerful than today’s most advanced machines. Ledger CTO Charles Guillemet has noted that while current systems operate at the scale of hundreds of qubits, such attacks would require millions of qubits. This places the realistic threat horizon at a decade or more away.
A Manageable Engineering Challenge
Rather than framing quantum computing as an emergency, CoinShares characterizes it as a foreseeable engineering problem. The firm supports a gradual migration toward post-quantum signature schemes, allowing the Bitcoin ecosystem to adapt over time.
While debate continues between developers and institutional investors regarding preparedness, current evidence suggests that quantum computing does not pose an immediate or systemic risk to Bitcoin. The issue appears less like an impending crisis and more like a long-term transition that can be addressed methodically.
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