Haciyev Reşit 
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at crypto asset management firm Bitwise, has outlined the critical conditions required for a major Bitcoin rally. According to Hougan, a parabolic surge in Bitcoin prices is likely if long-term ETF demand continues and the supply–demand balance in the market remains unchanged. He also emphasized that the selling behavior of current Bitcoin holders will play a decisive role in the timing of any rally. These insights are closely watched by investors and crypto professionals, offering important clues about Bitcoin’s potential future price movements.
Parallels Between Gold and Bitcoin’s Parabolic Moves
Hougan pointed out a strong parallel between Bitcoin’s price dynamics and the gold market trend observed in 2025. Both assets’ prices are primarily driven by supply–demand dynamics, with demand surges having a notable impact. Gold’s approximate 65% rise in 2025 was largely driven by heavy central bank purchases. Bitcoin today is experiencing price dynamics almost identical to the supply and demand pressures that influenced gold, providing investors a key reference for understanding potential parabolic moves in Bitcoin.
After the U.S. froze Russian Treasury holdings in 2022, central bank gold purchases surged from around 500 tons to 1,000 tons annually, maintaining a high level since. Hougan explained that although this strong demand initially didn’t immediately affect prices, over time, as existing holders sold less and their reserves depleted, gold experienced its parabolic momentum in 2025. Early-year demand increases were offset by sales from existing holders, delaying the price surge.
Similar Dynamics in Bitcoin and Spot ETFs
Hougan notes that the same mechanism applies to Bitcoin and spot ETFs. Since the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs in January 2024, ETF purchases have exceeded 100% of newly minted BTC supply. However, a parabolic price jump has not yet occurred because current Bitcoin holders continue to sell. Hougan suggests that if ETF demand remains persistent, these sellers’ “ammunition” will eventually deplete, leading to a reduced supply and rapid price increases.
“Sustained long-term ETF demand is critical for a parabolic rise in Bitcoin. Once current holders stop selling, supply will tighten, and prices could surge quickly.” – Matt Hougan, Bitwise CIO
Assessment
Hougan’s analysis provides investors with key insights into Bitcoin’s potential future price action. The supply–demand dynamics observed in the gold market are mirrored by persistent spot ETF demand in Bitcoin. If ETF purchases continue and existing holders reduce selling, Bitcoin could experience a massive rally, reinforcing the importance of monitoring both market demand and holder behavior for predicting short- to medium-term price trends.
Also, you can freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, please follow us on our Telegram, YouTube and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.