Yeliz Akmaca 
The fragile recovery in February produced quiet but noteworthy signals in the altcoin market. Technical indicators are gradually improving, yet investor capital remains heavily concentrated in Bitcoin. This picture brings up the possibility of an altcoin season in March, even though risk appetite has not fully returned.
Historical Hope Amid Weak Market Conditions
Only about 5% of altcoins listed on Binance are trading above their 200-day Simple Moving Average (200-day SMA), meaning 95% are still below that long-term trend line — a sign of broad weakness across altcoins.
However, historical cycles offer a different perspective. Over the past two years, this ratio has typically remained below 15% for no more than five months before recovering. Similar structures formed from June–October 2024 and again from February–June 2025. The current downtrend began last October and has now reached the end of its fifth month. This development suggests that many altcoins have fallen to potentially attractive price levels and may attract renewed demand.
Meanwhile, analysts have spotted early positive signals on the OTHERS/BTC chart (which measures total altcoin market capitalization excluding Bitcoin). On the monthly timeframe, the MACD indicator crossed above its signal line and produced its first green histogram bar since early 2024 — similar to formations that appeared ahead of major altcoin rallies in 2017 and 2020.
Analyst Blade notes that momentum shifts combined with structural compression often precede expansion. This technical setup strengthens the possibility of altcoins posting gains in March.
Altcoin Market Structure and Supply Dynamics
In February, the total market capitalization of altcoins (TOTAL2) remained under $1 trillion, and overall market sentiment hit multi-year lows. Selling pressure on altcoins (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) reached levels not seen over the past five years. Over the past 13 months, the cumulative net flow from altcoin buying and selling reached -$209 billion; in January 2025, this figure was nearly flat, indicating a balanced supply-demand picture at the time. Since then, the decline has continued without meaningful recovery.
The expansion of the altcoin ecosystem is also significant: five years ago, there were roughly 430,000 listed coins, compared with 31.8 million today — nearly a 70‑fold increase. However, rising supply amid weak demand has exerted downward pressure on most altcoins.
Capital Still Concentrated in Bitcoin
A broader view of trading volumes shows that on centralized exchanges (CEXs), altcoin volume relative to Bitcoin volume has dropped to the lowest level in a year. In 2025, this ratio peaked near 3.5 before falling below 2.5 by late last year and stabilizing around 2.2 in early 2026. This trend highlights ongoing investor preference for Bitcoin at the expense of altcoins.
For a true altcoin season to begin, fresh capital would need to enter the market and rotate from Bitcoin into a broader range of altcoins.
As of writing, the Altcoin Season Index stands at 43 — well below the 75 threshold typically regarded as confirmation of a real altcoin season. Divergences between technical indicators and market sentiment often occur just before major trend shifts. Whether this balance will change in March remains to be seen.
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