Yeliz Akmaca 
The crypto market is heading into a pivotal moment as all eyes turn to the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data set to be released tomorrow at 16:30 local time (TSI). The figures won’t just shape the inflation narrative — they are also expected to directly influence expectations around the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut timeline.
Markets are not treating this release as a routine data point. Instead, it is being viewed as an early stress test for first-quarter assumptions. In recent weeks, the growing belief that rate cuts could be delayed has pushed investors into a cautious wait-and-see mode, particularly across risk-sensitive assets.
Against this backdrop, Bitcoin and Ethereum have not completely lost upside momentum. Still, both assets appear to be waiting for a clear macro signal before committing to a decisive move.
Inflation Expectations Hold Firm, Pressure Builds on the Fed
Consensus expectations suggest that both headline and core U.S. CPI will remain at 2.7% year over year. That level signals little improvement compared to the previous month and keeps inflation well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
While inflation has been cooling gradually, the pace has not been convincing enough to justify an imminent policy shift. Falling energy prices have offered limited relief to core inflation, complicating the outlook. Although the Fed’s preferred gauge — core PCE — has yet to be released, CPI continues to serve as a critical early signal for markets.
Adding another layer of uncertainty, renewed debate over Federal Reserve independence has surfaced following legal scrutiny involving Chair Jerome Powell. While no immediate policy impact is expected, the issue introduces additional risk sensitivity into already fragile market sentiment.
Bitcoin Remains Compressed Below Resistance
Bitcoin has entered a consolidation phase just below the 95,000 dollar zone after its recent rally. This area is not merely a technical ceiling — it also represents a zone highly sensitive to inflation surprises.
The failure to reclaim the 92,000 dollar level on a sustained basis suggests that upside momentum remains controlled. Still, despite trading below resistance for several days, Bitcoin has yet to show clear signs of structural weakness.
On the downside, the 88,000 dollar level stands out as a key support. A break below that zone could open the door to 86,000 dollars and potentially the stronger demand area near 80,000. On the upside, a decisive move above 95,000 could shift focus back toward the psychologically significant 100,000 level.
Current price structure points to tightening conditions, indicating that a directional move may be approaching. The CPI data could act as the catalyst that resolves this compression.
Ethereum Tests the 3,200 Dollar Threshold
Ethereum’s setup appears more fragile, though not outright bearish. ETH has been trading within a narrow range between 2,600 and 3,350 dollars for nearly two months, reflecting broader market indecision.
The recent bounce from the 3,060 support level suggests short-term buyers remain active. However, this was the second test of that zone, raising concerns about weakening support. Failure to clear the 3,180 resistance could trigger a deeper pullback, with 2,850 dollars emerging as the next area of interest.
Conversely, sustained acceptance above 3,200 dollars could quickly improve sentiment. Such a move would likely put the 3,300 region back into play, followed by the major resistance area near 3,800 if broader risk appetite improves. A CPI reading that supports easing expectations could help unlock that upside scenario.
Is CPI the Only Catalyst Tomorrow?
The day’s agenda extends beyond CPI. Markets will also digest the U.S. Producer Price Index, the release of the Fed’s Beige Book, and developments surrounding the completion of the Fed’s Treasury purchase operations. Additionally, attention remains on a potential U.S. Supreme Court ruling related to tariff policies.
This crowded macro calendar makes it difficult for markets to focus on a single headline. Still, inflation remains the central variable. An upside surprise in CPI could push rate-cut expectations further out, increasing short-term selling pressure across crypto markets.
A softer print, on the other hand, may offer temporary relief — though whether that relief proves durable is far from certain. At this stage, markets are no longer willing to price in optimism based on a single favorable data point.
As a result, the ongoing compression in Bitcoin and Ethereum is not merely technical. It reflects the pricing of uncertainty itself. Tomorrow’s data may break the stalemate, but any lasting trend will ultimately depend on how the Federal Reserve responds to the evolving inflation picture.
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