Emre Yumlu 
Bitcoin (BTC), the flagship of the crypto market, recently entered a corrective phase after hitting a new high above $124,000 in mid-August. While some analysts view this decline as the beginning of a potential bear market, others interpret it as a healthy correction within an ongoing bull cycle.
Fresh Insights from CryptoQuant
The latest outlook comes from CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler, who based his analysis on the traditional halving-bull cycle model. According to Adler, Bitcoin has not yet entered a bear phase but has transitioned into the final stage of the bull market. His model suggests that the peak could materialize around October or November 2025.
Despite heavy selling pressure, Bitcoin has shown resilience. Adler highlighted that long-term holders offloaded significant volumes at $70,000 in March, followed by additional sales near $98,000 and $117,000. Nevertheless, institutional investors have been absorbing this supply, signaling that bullish momentum remains intact.
Timing the Market Peak: October–November Window
Historically, Adler noted, bull cycle peaks often occur when Bitcoin’s spot price reaches roughly eleven times the average cost basis of long-term investors. Applying this metric, he forecasts that the current cycle could climax in the October–November timeframe, potentially pushing BTC to fresh all-time highs (ATHs).
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Outlook
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $112,286. In the short term, the primary support zone lies between $112,120 – $111,650, while the critical resistance level is positioned at $113,500. A breakout beyond these levels could provide clarity on Bitcoin’s next directional move.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets carry significant risks, and you should conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
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