Haciyev Reşit 
As volatility in the crypto sector rises, prediction markets continue to reflect investor expectations in real time. According to Polymarket data, the probability of Bitcoin dropping to the $80,000 level by November is priced at 75%. This figure is seen as a key indicator of current market risk sentiment and investor psychology.
What Do the Polymarket Data Show?
Polymarket a decentralized prediction market where users place real-money bets on future outcomes — offers direct insight into investor sentiment.
In the Bitcoin price prediction market for November, the platform currently prices a 75% chance that BTC falls to $80,000.
This high probability suggests:
- Volatility is increasing
- Investors expect short-term downside
- Market corrections may continue
Why Is Bitcoin Under Pressure?
Bitcoin fell below $82,000 on Friday morning, triggering a wave of selling across the crypto market. In the last 24 hours alone, roughly $2 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated, with the majority coming from long positions accelerating the downward move. BTC had previously set an all-time high at $126,199, but the sharp correction has exposed renewed fragility in the market.
ETF Outflows & Risk-Off Sentiment Intensify the Decline
Several major factors lie behind Bitcoin’s recent sell-off:
- Significant outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs
- Declining global risk appetite
- Rising macroeconomic uncertainty
- Weakening liquidity
ETF outflows, in particular, indicate that institutional capital is pulling back from crypto in the short term, creating additional downward pressure.
Analysts commented:
“Polymarket’s pricing shows that investors are taking macro pressures and liquidity tightening very seriously. The market does not yet appear to believe that a true bottom has been reached.”
Outlook: Market Sentiment Remains Bearish
With Polymarket pricing a 75% probability of further decline, short-term expectations remain cautious. As long as ETF outflows, volatility, and macroeconomic pressures persist, the market is likely to maintain a weak posture. However, analysts also point out that deep liquidity zones formed at these levels may represent long-term accumulation opportunities for strategic investors.
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