Emre Yumlu 
The long-debated four-year cycle in Bitcoin markets has once again become a focal point for investors. However, this time the discussion is no longer centered on block reward halvings. Instead, political developments, global liquidity conditions, and election calendars are emerging as the dominant drivers shaping Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior. According to Markus Thielen, Head of Research at 10x Research, Bitcoin’s cycle remains intact, but the mechanics behind it have fundamentally evolved.
From Bitcoin Halving to Politics and Liquidity
Thielen challenges the idea that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle has “broken down.” In his view, the cycle itself has not disappeared; rather, the variables influencing it have shifted. While supply shocks from halvings once played a central role, today’s market dynamics are increasingly dictated by U.S. elections, central bank policies, and capital flows into risk assets.
Looking at historical data, Thielen points out that major Bitcoin market peaks occurred in the fourth quarter of 2013, 2017, and 2021. These peaks, he argues, align more closely with presidential election cycles and periods of heightened political uncertainty than with the timing of Bitcoin halvings, which have taken place at different points in the calendar over the years.
Elections and Market Psychology for Bitcoin
Election years tend to amplify uncertainty across financial markets. Concerns about potential shifts in political power, changes in fiscal priorities, and stalled policy agendas often weigh on investor sentiment. According to Thielen, this uncertainty directly influences risk appetite and capital allocation decisions.
Bitcoin, as an alternative and globally traded asset, can react differently during such periods. Rather than following a strictly supply-driven narrative, its price behavior increasingly reflects broader macro and political stress factors.
Why Rate Cuts Failed to Spark a Rally
Another key element of Thielen’s analysis is Bitcoin’s muted response to the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cut. Historically, looser monetary policy has supported risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. This time, however, the expected momentum failed to materialize.
The reason, Thielen suggests, lies in the changing composition of the crypto market. Institutional investors now play a dominant role and tend to be more cautious when policy signals are mixed and liquidity conditions remain tight. Additionally, capital inflows into Bitcoin have slowed compared to previous years, limiting upside pressure. Without a clear expansion in global liquidity, Thielen expects Bitcoin to remain in a consolidation phase rather than enter a new explosive rally.
A Broader Debate on Cycles
Not all market participants agree that the four-year cycle still matters. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has argued that crypto cycles were never truly tied to fixed timelines, but rather to global liquidity trends. In his view, past bull markets ended when monetary conditions tightened, not because of halving events.
Despite differing perspectives, both views converge on a key point: understanding Bitcoin’s future now requires looking beyond block rewards and focusing more closely on macroeconomic forces, political developments, and liquidity conditions shaping global markets.
You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.