Haciyev Reşit 
Attention in the crypto markets has once again turned to Bitcoin. As expectations grow that the U.S. Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates, risk appetite for higher-risk assets is increasing. In this context, global asset manager Fidelity has published a notable analysis on Bitcoin. According to Fidelity’s analysts, Bitcoin is currently in the fifth wave of an upward cycle that began after the 2022 market bottom, and this cycle could theoretically extend toward the $150,000 level.
Fidelity: The Bitcoin Bull Cycle Began in 2022
In its report, Fidelity emphasized that Bitcoin formed a major bottom around $15,000 in 2022, marking the start of a new bullish cycle. Analysts noted that price movements within this cycle have followed a wave structure and that the market is currently experiencing the fifth upward wave.
The report also stated that after Bitcoin reached a recent peak near $126,000 in October, the market entered a period of correction and consolidation. Despite this pause, Fidelity believes the primary trend remains upward.
The Rally May Continue After the Fifth Wave
According to Fidelity analysts, the completion of the fifth wave does not necessarily signal the end of the broader uptrend. On the contrary, based on wave theory, price action could continue higher for some time.
The report includes the following assessment:
“According to the wave model, prices in this bull cycle could theoretically extend to around $151,360.”
This projection suggests that medium- and long-term expectations for Bitcoin remain strong.
Slower Gains, Longer Cycles
Managing approximately $5 trillion in assets, Fidelity highlighted that Bitcoin is increasingly maturing as a financial asset. As market capitalization grows, the pace of price increases tends to slow, while the duration of market cycles lengthens.
The report notes:
“With each new wave, the percentage gains decline, but the duration of the wave increases.”
This observation implies that Bitcoin is entering a more stable, time-extended growth phase compared with earlier cycles.
A Sixth Wave Could Begin in Early 2026
Another notable point in the report is the possibility that a sixth bullish wave could begin in early 2026. Fidelity suggests that once the current cycle concludes, Bitcoin may enter another consolidation phase before starting a new upward move. This scenario reinforces Bitcoin’s long-term appeal for investors and indicates that its cyclical structure remains intact.
Rising expectations of Fed rate cuts are seen as a key macroeconomic factor supporting risk assets. According to Fidelity, this environment is particularly favorable for scarce assets like Bitcoin. Increasing institutional interest and capital inflows via ETFs are also helping to create a more robust and sustainable price structure.
Overall Assessment
Fidelity’s analysis suggests that Bitcoin continues to have strong upside potential under current market conditions. The view that the fifth wave of the post-2022 bull cycle is ongoing, that prices could theoretically reach $150,000, and that a new wave may emerge in 2026, is being closely watched by the market.
This report stands out as a key reference point for understanding Bitcoin’s future direction, shaping discussions around Bitcoin price targets, market cycles, and long-term crypto investment outlooks.
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