Yeliz Akmaca 
Global markets are focused on the upcoming FOMC meeting as the U.S. Federal Reserve prepares to announce its decision tomorrow. Inflationary pressures persist, while cooling signs in the labor market have become more pronounced. This backdrop increases uncertainty over the Fed next move.
Futures markets, however, are clearer. They price in a 97% chance that the Fed will pause rate hikes, following three consecutive cuts. This expectation reflects a market gradually adjusting to the central bank’s recent policy moves.
Cautious Sentiment on the Fed Side
Last month’s FOMC minutes showed that caution dominates among policymakers. Officials are carefully weighing inflation risks against potential unemployment. With the policy rate at 3.5–3.75%, the Fed has limited room to maneuver. Recent quarter-point cuts aimed to prevent sharp labor market disruptions, but now the consensus leans toward pausing. For Fed Chair Jerome Powell, this is a challenging environment.
CME FedWatch data reinforces this view. Last week, the probability of a rate hold stood at 95%, now it’s over 97%. Powell’s recent remarks underline the difficulty of balancing inflation and unemployment risks simultaneously.
Crypto Markets Feel the Pressure
Uncertainty over interest rates continues to weigh on crypto assets. The total market capitalization has approached $2.99 trillion, but this modest rise offers little confidence. Bitcoin and major altcoins are trying to hold their ground, yet the market remains fragile.
Sharp gains in gold and silver signal that risk appetite is shifting toward safe havens. This trend tempers investor enthusiasm in Bitcoin and weakens crypto’s short-term narrative.
Polymarket data shows almost a 99% probability that the Fed will hold rates. This expectation favors directionless, jittery movements rather than sudden crypto rallies. Upward attempts exist, but their sustainability is limited.
What Derivatives Markets Indicate
Derivatives indicators suggest investors are not convinced about further upside. Demand for leveraged long positions is weak, while professional traders price higher probabilities of downside risks in options markets.
Bitcoin options’ delta skew reached 12% on Monday. Normally, this indicator fluctuates between -6% and +6%. This level shows put options are trading at a premium, reflecting strong hedging demand. The last time delta skew reached similar levels was December 1, 2025, when Bitcoin dropped from $91,500 to $83,900 in hours. This market memory helps explain today’s cautious stance.
Gold at Record, Bitcoin Behind
Concerns about a weaker U.S. dollar have boosted gold prices to record levels, with spot gold briefly hitting $5,100. Analysts are questioning whether “value-loss trades” are accelerating.
Bitcoin, however, has yet to follow this trend. Even as the S&P 500 rose 0.6% in a single day, Bitcoin remained subdued. This suggests the decline cannot be solely linked to U.S. financial risks. Broader confidence issues dominate the crypto market.
In summary, the Fed’s upcoming decision could increase short-term volatility. If rates remain on hold, the crypto market is likely to continue grappling with uncertainty rather than clear direction.
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