Emre Yumlu 
Recent volatility in the crypto market has prompted major institutional players to reassess their long-term outlooks. In this context, investment firm Galaxy has updated its 2025 Bitcoin price forecast, lowering its target from $185,000 to $120,000. According to the company, shifting liquidity conditions, a wave of leveraged liquidations, and reduced market volatility are the key factors behind this revision.
Bitcoin Enters a “Maturity Era,” Says Galaxy
Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy, highlighted that Bitcoin’s market structure has fundamentally evolved. He noted that institutional absorption has increased, passive ETF and financial institution inflows are gaining influence, and overall price volatility is diminishing.
Thorn also pointed out that large holders offloaded 400,000 BTC in October, while capital flowed into alternative investment themes such as gold, artificial intelligence, and stablecoins. Combined with aggressive liquidations, these shifts have contributed to downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.
According to Thorn, Bitcoin is now in a phase dominated by steady institutional demand rather than speculative trading patterns. He added:
“If Bitcoin can hold above the $100,000 level, the nearly three-year bull structure remains intact, but the pace of future gains may slow compared to previous cycles.”
Thorn further referenced the October 10 flash crash, which triggered around $20 billion in liquidations within 24 hours—the largest liquidation event in crypto history. He stated that this episode has “materially weakened” the bullish trend.
Is the Next Bear Market Beginning?
Market sentiment took a sharp hit this week after a rapid sell-off led to $1.3 billion in liquidations, pushing Bitcoin below $100,000 for the first time in four months. Adding to concerns, BTC closed below its 365-day moving average for two consecutive days—historically seen as a key dynamic support level.
The recent decline represents a drop of more than 20% from Bitcoin’s all-time high above $126,000, leading some investors to question whether a new bear market has begun.
However, analysts remain divided. While some interpret a 20% correction as a bearish signal, others argue that such moves are typical within Bitcoin’s historical cycle behavior. Trader Lourenço VS commented:
“In this cycle, normal corrections have ranged between 20–25%, with a few extending to 30%. The current pullback sits at 21%, completely within expected parameters.”
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