Yeliz Akmaca 
Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday, trading near $4,305 per ounce and closing in on October’s all-time high of $4,381. The precious metal is up more than 64% year-to-date, driven by rate cut expectations and persistent demand for safe-haven assets. Bitcoin, by contrast, continues to struggle, hovering around $86,000 after a sharp wave of liquidations earlier this week.
Why it matters?
The growing gap between gold and Bitcoin highlights a shift in investor behavior during periods of macro uncertainty. Similar divergences in the past have often preceded changes in risk appetite across global markets.
Gold Strength Supported by Rates, ETFs, and Central Banks
Gold’s rally has been underpinned by several macro factors. The US dollar slipped to a two-month low during the Asian session, providing additional support for bullion. Markets are currently pricing in a 76% probability of another Federal Reserve rate cut in January, further boosting the appeal of non-yielding assets.
According to the World Gold Council, holdings in gold-backed ETFs have increased in every month of the year except May. Central bank purchases and ongoing geopolitical risks continue to reinforce demand. As interest rates fall, the opportunity cost of holding gold declines, keeping investor interest elevated.
Bitcoin Under Pressure After Liquidations
Bitcoin remains under selling pressure following an hour-long liquidation event that wiped out nearly $200 million in long positions on Monday. The asset is still trading roughly 30% below its October peak of $126,210, reflecting weaker short-term sentiment.
While gold tends to benefit from uncertainty, Bitcoin often trades more like a risk asset. During periods of heightened caution, capital flows typically favor stability over volatility, limiting upside momentum for cryptocurrencies.
Technical Signals Draw Market Attention
The divergence between gold and Bitcoin has not gone unnoticed by analysts. Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index against gold has fallen below 30, a level reached only a handful of times historically. Analysts note that previous occurrences often aligned with market bottoms, though outcomes have varied depending on macro conditions.
The BTC/Gold pair is also testing a long-term ascending support line that has held since 2019. The current Z-Score sits near -1.76, placing the ratio in oversold territory. Still, analysts caution that technical patterns alone are not enough to predict a reversal, especially with inflation remaining above target levels globally.
Liquidity Levels Shape Short-Term Outlook
Bitcoin’s liquidation map highlights key price zones that could influence near-term volatility.
• Approximately $740 million in liquidity sits above the market near the $92,113 level.
• Around $175 million in liquidity is positioned below price near $87,112.
This imbalance suggests that upside moves could trigger larger liquidation cascades. However, sustained momentum will likely depend on spot market demand rather than derivatives activity alone.
On-Chain Data Shows Mixed Signals
On-chain indicators reveal continued spot selling on Binance and Coinbase over recent days. While Coinbase briefly showed signs of net buying, traders are watching closely to see whether daily closes confirm a shift in behavior. Binance, meanwhile, has recorded spot selling for eleven consecutive days.
ETF-driven inflows previously supported Bitcoin’s price action. However, data suggests that some of these coins have been redistributed via Binance, making renewed spot demand on the exchange a key factor for price stability.
Macro Data Could Influence Market Direction
Markets are now focused on upcoming US labor data following a six-week government shutdown. Economists expect a modest 50,000 increase in payrolls and an unemployment rate of 4.5%, pointing to a cooling but resilient labor market.
Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson notes that even moderate weakness in the data could strengthen the case for further rate cuts. Although the Fed recently reduced rates by 25 basis points and signaled a potential pause, officials have emphasized that current inflation levels do not reflect deeper structural pressure.
For now, gold continues to benefit from caution and uncertainty. Bitcoin, meanwhile, remains sensitive to shifts in risk appetite. Whether the gap between the two assets narrows will depend on how quickly investor confidence returns to higher-risk markets
You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.