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As the crypto market experiences a sharp selling wave, Bitcoin has fallen to its weakest levels since November. With the recent drop, BTC slid to around $83,000, forming a new two-month low. This decline from approximately $98,000 represents a nearly 15% loss in a short time and has fueled concerns about a bear market. Recent selling pressure suggests that this may not be just a temporary correction but rather the start of a deeper trend change. The fact that Bitcoin has not attracted safe-haven demand despite a weakening US dollar adds to these concerns.
Is Bitcoin in a Bear Market?
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin’s current price structure closely mirrors previous market cycles. According to Cowen, despite positive news, macro developments, or temporary market optimism, Bitcoin may have independently entered a downward trajectory. He sees this as a potential structural trend change. Cowen notes that Bitcoin likely peaked around October 2025, after which price movements entered a gradual but steady downtrend. This behavior resembles the early stages of previous bear markets, suggesting that the market may already be in a bear phase.
Historical data shows that Bitcoin often peaks in the fourth quarter of major market cycles. Similar patterns occurred in 2013, 2017, 2021, and most recently in 2025. Each of these periods saw strong rallies followed by prolonged and gradual declines, indicating a recurring cyclical pattern. Cowen believes that the current market is closely following this historical timeline. Despite some investors expecting a “different” cycle, price movements align with past examples, suggesting the current decline may be part of a larger cycle.
Similarities with 2019
Cowen compares the current market to 2019, when Bitcoin experienced a slow, steady downtrend without sharp crashes or panic. Most altcoins also underperformed, market volumes dropped, and prices remained under pressure for an extended period. He argues that current dynamics are showing similar signals. Without a clear improvement in liquidity, Bitcoin may struggle to mount a strong recovery, and prices could remain under downward pressure for some time. This suggests that investors may benefit from focusing on long-term market cycles rather than short-term rallies.
How Long Could the Bear Market Last?
Historically, Bitcoin bear markets have lasted around 12 months. Sharp declines in 2018 and 2022 also followed similar timelines. Based on this historical pattern, and assuming the current decline began in October 2025, Cowen projects that the market could remain under pressure until the end of 2026. A bottom could form between mid-2026 and late 2026. If the downtrend persists, $50,000 is seen as a strong long-term support. In a more severe bear scenario, Bitcoin could drop to the $30,000 range, corresponding to deep-cycle lows from previous bear markets.
Bitcoin is currently testing a strong support zone between $80,000 and $84,000. The first key level is $80,000, followed by a secondary support band at $74,000–$75,000, and a deeper risk zone around $71,000. The recent decline has brought the bear market scenario into focus. Historical cycles and technical indicators suggest investors should prepare for high volatility and prolonged weakness in the coming months.
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