Yeliz Akmaca 
On June 11, 2025, Polymarket estimated the probability of Israel launching a military operation against Iran at approximately 60%. This rate provided a remarkable foresight into the developments on the ground before the attack that took place on June 13.
Following the announcement of the attacks, new predictions about Iran’s likelihood of retaliation rapidly surged on the platform. Polymarket data calculated only a 12% chance that the conflict would de-escalate by the following Friday (June 20, 2025). Even more striking were the bets on Iran declaring war on Israel within the same time frame, which had reached a notably high level of 55% by early Friday.
And indeed, the events matched the predictions exactly. Israeli warplanes struck numerous military targets inside Iran, including nuclear facilities such as the Natanz nuclear site. Approximately 100 targets were hit using at least 330 munitions, and several high-ranking Iranian commanders were killed. However, methodological limitations (information access, volume, manipulation) should not be ignored. Founded in 2020, the platform creates “Yes/No” markets on many topics including political events, wars, and the economy. Users trade on these markets using USDC.
Polymarket: A Barometer for Global Events
- Conflict de-escalation chance 12%: The market views the likelihood of tension easing next week as low.
- Iran’s war declaration risk down to 33%: Although the risk rose in the initial critical hours, the market now sees a large military move by Iran in the short term as unlikely.
- Israel’s war declaration chance 25%: This indicates the market considers Israel’s imminent war declaration possible but with low probability.
Prediction markets like Polymarket serve as an interesting barometer reflecting collective expectations about global events’ outcomes. Betting trends in the Israel-Iran tension not only mirror potential military actions but also reveal perceptions about the impact of such events on international relations and regional stability.
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