Emre Yumlu 
This week, attention across the crypto market has once again turned toward the U.S. Fed. Although Bitcoin started the week with a positive tone, selling pressure returned as the upcoming interest rate decision approached. Investors are closely watching whether Bitcoin can regain bullish momentum after the Fed’s decision—or if history is about to repeat itself.
Past performance suggests that expectations often exceed reality when it comes to Bitcoin’s reaction following Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This raises an important question: can Bitcoin break the pattern this time?
A Look at Bitcoin’s FOMC Track Record in 2025
According to data shared by crypto analyst Ali Martinez, Bitcoin has struggled to sustain gains after FOMC meetings throughout 2025. Out of seven meetings held this year, Bitcoin managed to post a meaningful rally only once. That exception came after the May seventh FOMC meeting, when the price surged by approximately fifteen percent.
In contrast, several meetings triggered sharp declines. Bitcoin recorded its steepest drop in January, falling close to twenty-nine percent. Additional notable losses were seen in October with a nineteen percent pullback and in March with a twelve percent decline. These figures suggest that the market has frequently responded with risk-off behavior following Fed policy updates.
Correction Risk Ahead of the Next Decision
Based on these historical patterns, Martinez warns that Bitcoin could face another downside move if the upcoming FOMC meeting fails to deliver a clear bullish catalyst. In particular, heavily leveraged positions are seen as a major vulnerability in the current environment. Without a strong positive macro signal, the market may struggle to sustain upward momentum.
Matrixport Maintains a Cautious Outlook
Market intelligence firm Matrixport echoes this cautious tone. While Bitcoin has displayed short-term technical strength, the firm believes that uncertainty remains unresolved ahead of the Fed’s decision. According to their assessment, the current price stability alone is not sufficient to confirm the beginning of a new bullish phase.
Matrixport also emphasizes that the final weeks of the year are often associated with deleveraging and risk reduction across financial markets. As a result, short-term recoveries may present opportunities to trim exposure rather than initiate aggressive new long positions.
Market Sentiment Remains on Standby
In summary, historical FOMC data paints a largely negative picture for Bitcoin’s post-meeting performance in 2025. As traders brace for the next Fed decision, the broader market appears locked in a cautious wait-and-see mode. A sustained rally would likely require a strong shift in macroeconomic signals—something that remains uncertain for now.
This content does not constitute investment advice.
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