Yeliz Akmaca 
Tensions between Iran and the US are shaking markets. Brent crude hit $71.66 per barrel, US crude rose to $66.43, and gold reached $5,007.44 per ounce. Investors are seeking safe havens—but the question is: why did gold surge? In short: uncertainty and the risk around the Strait of Hormuz are pushing prices up.
Oil Prices Jump Amid Supply Concerns
Brent crude rose 1.86% to $71.66, while US crude climbed 1.9% to $66.43. Wednesday saw a more than 4% increase—the largest daily surge since October. Markets are cautious, understandably. The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz is key here.
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, commented: “The recent moves in oil prices reflect the market pricing in the geopolitical risk premium from the world’s most critical oil artery being close to a conflict zone.”
Gold Surpasses $5,000: Safe-Haven Demand Surges
Gold reached $5,007.44 per ounce. After a 2% rise on Wednesday, it gained a slight 0.2% on Thursday. Why the surge? Investors are flocking to safe-haven assets amid uncertainty. Volatility and escalating Middle East tensions have boosted demand. Daniela Hathorn, Senior Market Analyst at Capital.com, says, “Gold is no longer just an investment vehicle; it is trading almost like a gauge of geopolitical concern.”
Strait of Hormuz: The Critical Oil Passage
US and Iranian diplomats met in Geneva, but talks have not eased tensions. US Vice President JD Vance noted that Iranian negotiators ignored some of President Trump’s “red lines.” Daily oil flow through the Strait is about 20 million barrels, representing 20% of global consumption. Iran partially closed the strait for naval exercises, heightening market anxiety. Even minor disruptions could trigger sudden price spikes.
Market Reactions and Inflation Worries
US stock markets closed lower on Thursday: Dow Jones -0.54%, S&P 500 -0.28%, Nasdaq -0.31%. Analysts at Capital Economics warn that potential strikes on Iran could spike oil prices, push global inflation higher, and reduce the pace or number of central bank rate cuts.
Dennis Follmer, Chief Investment Officer at Montis Financial, says: “Maintaining oil flow from the Strait of Hormuz should be a priority for the White House. Diplomacy first; if not possible, a military plan to safeguard supply.”
Past Conflicts and Market Response
In June, clashes between Israel and Iran and US operations on Iran’s nuclear facilities drove oil prices up. Gold and oil served as a geopolitical risk signal. Investors remain cautious toward Iran due to its proximity to the Strait of Hormuz.
Thursday’s market swings show that tensions remain high. Gold and oil prices rising indicates that safe-haven demand continues. Risks are not gone; investors are cautious.
Iran-US tensions are directly affecting oil and gold markets. Brent crude $71.66, US crude $66.43, gold $5,007.44. Investors are seeking safe-haven assets.
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