Emre Yumlu 
The final weeks of 2025 have brought one of the sharpest sentiment swings the crypto market has seen in years. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropping to 9 on November 16 signaled deep pessimism, marking one of the most extreme fear readings of the current cycle. Is the rally possible? This stands in stark contrast to November 2024, when the same index surged to 94—one of its highest historical values—indicating an overwhelming sense of greed. Although the indicator is widely used to gauge market psychology, it cannot offer certainties; fear phases can extend unexpectedly, and investor reactions often diverge from textbook patterns.
A Red November and the First Signals from Analysts
This year, Bitcoin closed November with a pronounced red candle, reflecting a downturn in overall sentiment. Yet the fact that BTC held the 90,000-dollar region suggests that bullish momentum has not entirely vanished. Stabolut CEO Eneko Knorr notes that December and January may play a decisive role in determining whether the market is preparing for a potential “super cycle.”
A similar tone is echoed by Bakkt International President Phillip Lord, who argues that recent volatility does not imply the end of the bull market. In his view, the pullback resembles a mid-cycle shakeout rather than a structural breakdown. Despite the Federal Reserve slowing rate cuts and equities showing signs of fatigue, sustained ETF inflows and continued institutional positioning indicate that the bullish framework remains intact. Lord adds that Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim levels above 100,000 dollars will likely depend on maintaining the 83,000 to 86,000-dollar support range. So how about the rally?
Is a Rally Possible in Early 2026?
Market liquidity dynamics may hold the key to Bitcoin’s direction heading into the new year. Liquidity specialist Michael Howell highlights that BTC’s price behavior has become increasingly correlated with global liquidity trends rather than strictly following the four-year halving cycle. Studies placing the correlation between Bitcoin and the Global Liquidity Index in the 0.83–0.94 range underscore how significant macro liquidity has become for crypto assets.
According to Howell, the sharp liquidity peak observed in November provides important context. Bitcoin’s decline ahead of this turning point aligns with historical patterns, as BTC often leads liquidity trends by several weeks. This suggests that the current price weakness could be reflecting expectations of a coming liquidity pullback across global markets.
Still, Howell points to the possibility of another liquidity expansion around the second quarter of 2026. A slowdown in U.S. monetary contraction, rising excess bank reserves, any supportive intervention from the Federal Reserve, or stronger stimulus efforts from China could all shift conditions in favor of risk assets. Should these catalysts emerge, Bitcoin may find the environmental support needed to regain upward momentum going into 2026.
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