Emre Yumlu 
As Bitcoin (BTC) approaches the end of the year without delivering the explosive rally many investors had anticipated, sentiment across the market has turned mixed. While some see this lack of excitement as a disappointment, others argue that the absence of excessive price acceleration could actually be constructive. According to prominent Bitcoin investor and entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano, a market that avoids overheating is less vulnerable to a severe collapse in early 2026.
Declining Volatility Flies Under the Radar
One of Pompliano’s key observations centers on Bitcoin’s volatility. He highlights that volatility has compressed significantly, yet this trend has received far less attention than short-term price movements. Historically, sharp volatility spikes have often preceded dramatic drawdowns of 70% to 80%. In contrast, today’s calmer market structure suggests that such extreme downside scenarios may be less likely, even if price action feels uninspiring in the short term.
Bitcoin’s Long-Term Performance Remains Strong
Despite failing to meet the most optimistic price targets, Bitcoin’s broader performance paints a different picture. Over the past two years, BTC has roughly doubled in value, while its three-year performance approaches a 300% gain. This steady compounding underscores Bitcoin’s resilience as a long-term asset. From this perspective, missing a speculative peak does not negate its role as one of the strongest performers in global financial markets over recent years.
No Blow-Off Top, No Brutal Crash
Many market participants expected a classic “blow-off top” toward the end of the third quarter or the start of the fourth quarter. That scenario never materialized. However, Pompliano emphasizes that the lack of a euphoric peak also meant avoiding the equally familiar aftermath: a massive collapse. In past cycles, parabolic rallies were often followed by devastating corrections. This time, the market’s moderation may have acted as a stabilizing force.
Diverging Outlooks for 2026
While Pompliano leans toward a more balanced outlook, not all analysts share his confidence. Some experienced traders believe Bitcoin could face renewed pressure in the coming years. Veteran chartist Peter Brandt has suggested that BTC could revisit the $60,000 region by the third quarter of 2026. Similarly, Fidelity’s global macro research team has floated the idea that 2026 could represent a consolidation phase, with prices potentially drifting toward $65,000.
Less Hype, More Structural Strength
The current environment may feel underwhelming to investors chasing dramatic upside. However, reduced excitement can also translate into greater structural durability. Without extreme speculation driving prices, Bitcoin may be building a foundation that limits severe drawdowns. In this sense, the market’s restraint today could be quietly preparing Bitcoin for a more sustainable trajectory into 2026 and beyond.
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