Emre Yumlu 
A potential policy shift by global index provider MSCI may have significant implications for crypto markets. The firm is considering changes to how it classifies companies that hold a substantial portion of their balance sheets in crypto assets. Analysts warn that if such firms are excluded from MSCI indexes, the resulting forced rebalancing by passive investment funds could lead to crypto-related sell-offs reaching as much as $15 billion.
This development comes at a sensitive time for digital asset markets, which have already been experiencing downward pressure for several months.
How Large Could the Outflows Be?
According to estimates shared by BitcoinForCorporations, an advocacy group opposing the proposal, as many as 39 publicly listed companies could be affected. These firms collectively represent approximately $113 billion in float-adjusted market capitalization. Based on this data set, projected outflows range between $10 billion and $15 billion if MSCI proceeds with the exclusion.
More conservative analyst calculations suggest total forced selling could amount to around $11.6 billion. Even at the lower end of estimates, such a volume would likely amplify volatility across crypto markets, particularly given the current fragile sentiment.
One company stands out as disproportionately exposed: Strategy, led by Michael Saylor. JPMorgan estimates that Strategy alone could face roughly $2.8 billion in outflows if removed from MSCI indexes. The firm accounts for nearly 74.5% of the total impacted float-adjusted market capitalization, underscoring how concentrated the potential impact could be.
Debate Over the Use of Balance Sheet Metrics
MSCI announced in October that it was consulting market participants on whether companies holding the majority of their assets in crypto should remain eligible for its indexes. Because MSCI benchmarks play a central role in determining passive fund allocations, any change in eligibility criteria carries material consequences for corporate access to institutional capital.
BitcoinForCorporations has strongly criticized the proposal, arguing that balance sheet composition alone is an inadequate measure of a company’s true economic activity. The group contends that such a rule ignores core factors such as revenue generation, operational structure, customer base, and business model. As a result, companies could be excluded despite no change in how they operate.
Growing Pushback From the Industry
Opposition to the proposal has continued to build. In early December, Nasdaq-listed Strive urged MSCI to allow market participants—not index rules—to decide whether Bitcoin-holding companies belong in passive portfolios. Shortly afterward, Strategy echoed similar concerns, warning that the change could introduce a structural bias against crypto as an asset class.
MSCI is expected to announce its final decision on January 15, with any approved changes potentially taking effect during the February 2026 index review. Until then, the outcome remains a key risk factor for both crypto-focused firms and the broader digital asset market.
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