Haciyev Reşit 
As risk perception in global markets continues to be reshaped, a notable assessment closely concerning the cryptocurrency and commodities markets has come from JPMorgan analysts. The bank stated that Bitcoin futures have entered oversold territory, while gold and silver futures are trading in overbought zones. According to JPMorgan, this picture shows that investors are moving away from bitcoin and turning toward precious metals.
Clear Divergence Between Bitcoin, Gold, and Silver
JPMorgan analysts emphasize that momentum indicators point to a clear divergence between Bitcoin, gold, and silver. According to the report, Bitcoin futures are in oversold territory, gold futures are in overbought territory, and silver futures are trading at strongly overbought levels. This situation indicates a shift in investor preferences from crypto assets toward precious metals, while also bringing short-term profit-taking and limited price correction risks—especially for trend-following investors and commodity trading advisors.
The report also draws attention to changes in retail investor behavior. According to JPMorgan analysts, investors followed a portfolio-balancing strategy involving both bitcoin and gold throughout most of 2025. However, this trend reversed as of August. During this period, Bitcoin ETF flows stagnated and turned into net outflows in the final quarter of the year. In contrast, gold ETF inflows accelerated, and the year ended with cumulative inflows of approximately $60 billion. Strong inflows into silver ETFs were largely concentrated in the final quarter of 2025 and coincided with the period of bitcoin ETF outflows.
Institutional Investors Increased Positions in Silver and Gold
According to JPMorgan, institutional investors also supported this shift. Based on data derived from changes in open interest in CME futures, the bank notes that there was a noticeable increase in long positions in silver during the final quarter of 2025 and early 2026. Hedge funds were highlighted as playing a significant role in this increase, while a similar trend in gold futures was reported to have persisted throughout the past year. In contrast, no comparable increase in positioning was observed in bitcoin futures.
Analysts also shared important findings based on the Hui-Heubel ratio, which measures market breadth and liquidity. Gold, with its low ratio, indicates deeper liquidity and broader market participation, while silver’s ratio remains at higher levels. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has the highest Hui-Heubel ratio among the three assets, indicating more limited liquidity and showing that smaller orders can have a stronger impact on prices.
JPMorgan’s Long-Term Gold Scenario: $8,000–$8,500
While warning of short-term correction risks in gold and silver prices, JPMorgan analysts maintain an optimistic long-term outlook for gold. According to the report, if private investors and central banks continue to increase their gold allocations, the share of gold in household portfolios could rise from the current level of around 3% to approximately 4.6%. This increase would strengthen structural demand for gold and provide long-term support for prices.
Under this scenario, JPMorgan forecasts that gold prices could theoretically reach the $8,000–$8,500 range. The bank had previously shared a medium-term upside scenario of $170,000 for bitcoin based on volatility-adjusted comparisons. However, it has not provided clear confirmation on whether this target remains valid under current market conditions. JPMorgan’s analysis highlights a strong divergence between Bitcoin futures, gold and silver futures, and ETF flows. While precious metals face correction risks in the short term, long-term upside expectations for gold remain intact. On the Bitcoin side, oversold signals suggest that volatility may increase in the period ahead.
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