Emre Yumlu 
The creator of the famous Stock-to-Flow model, PlanB, has challenged one of the crypto market’s longest-standing beliefs — the idea that Bitcoin’s price movements follow a predictable four-year cycle. According to the analyst, many investors assume that a bear market will arrive in 2026, simply because past price trends have often aligned with Bitcoin’s halving events. However, PlanB argues that this assumption is flawed, calling it “a major misunderstanding.”
The Halving Cycle May No Longer Be the Main Driver
PlanB noted that Bitcoin’s history has largely been analyzed through the lens of four-year cycles tied to halving events, but he believes this framework is statistically weak. “Three cycles are not enough to build a reliable pattern,” he stated, emphasizing that there’s “absolutely no guarantee” the next market peak will arrive 18 months after the most recent halving.
Instead, PlanB suggested that Bitcoin’s next major top could occur in 2026, 2027, or even 2028, stressing that the average price levels over time matter more than short-term peaks or corrections.
A New Phase Yet to Begin
According to PlanB, the current market has not yet undergone a significant “phase transition.” He believes either a major upward move is still on the horizon, or Bitcoin has entered a more stable regime dominated by institutional investors, fund mandates, and portfolio rebalancing. In either case, PlanB considers the long-term outlook for Bitcoin to remain highly positive.
Long-Term Liquidity Takes the Spotlight on Bitcoin
Echoing this sentiment, on-chain analyst Willy Woo pointed out that the current market cycle differs from the previous one. During the last bull run, liquidity primarily came from short-term derivatives markets, whereas this cycle appears to be supported by stronger long-term spot liquidity.
Meanwhile, analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that Bitcoin’s recent dip below $104,000 caused panic among investors who feared the start of a new bear market. Yet, the subsequent rebound helped ease some of those concerns — though sentiment remains fragile.
Bitcoin Price Dips Again
In early Tuesday trading hours in Asia, Bitcoin’s price fell more than 3%, dropping to around $107,700 before stabilizing near the key $108,000 support level.
Overall, the crypto market remains highly volatile and cautious. Analysts agree that to sustain a new upward trend, Bitcoin will need strong fundamental drivers and renewed investor confidence in the months ahead.
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