Yeliz Akmaca 
US-Iran bets on Polymarket surged, with a single market reaching $529 million in trading volume, becoming one of the platform’s largest contracts ever. The contract on Ayatollah Khamenei’s death hit $45 million, and some traders made over $1 million in profits just hours before the attack. This shows how rapidly and aggressively geopolitical prediction markets can move.
The platform’s key advantage is speed: while traditional markets close on weekends, anyone with a crypto wallet can trade on regime change, US strikes, or ceasefire dates in real time. Investors are not only betting on whether the conflict escalates but also on weekly end dates, who replaces Khamenei, and whether US ground forces will enter Iran.
Market Movements and Insider Trading Questions
Onchain analysis identified six wallets that correctly predicted the February 28 US strike on Iran, netting about $1.2 million. Most were funded within 24 hours of the attack, bought “yes” shares on the specific date, and profited hours before the military operation. The largest wallet turned $61,000 into $493,000, while another gained $120,000 from $30,000.
Ceasefire markets price short-term resolutions: March 2 at 4%, March 6 at 15%, March 31 at 61%, and April 30 at 78%. “Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?” trades at 54%, up from the low-20s for months. Ground invasion contracts also show significant volume: “Will the US enter Iran before 2027?” at 19% with $207,000, and “US forces enter Iran by March 7?” at 28% with $2 million.
Trader stories highlight market intensity: “Curseaaaaaaa” earned $757,000 on Khamenei’s death contract. Four other traders made six-figure profits. Prices hovered 25–50% in Jan–Feb, then jumped to 100% after confirmation.
Polymarket’s Difference and Future Outlook
The largest resolved contract was Khamenei’s death, which resolved at 100%. The US strike contract reached $529 million, making it the largest in the “World” and “Geopolitics” categories and fourth in overall politics behind 2024 Trump election contracts.
Polymarket provides speed traditional markets cannot: weekend trading, real-time crowd pricing, and immediate settlement. US-Iran bets saw record weekly volumes, traders price both regime change and strike timing. Bitcoin’s $68,000 jump reflects parallel short-term expectations.
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