Haciyev Reşit 
A notable divergence has emerged in the crypto market in recent days. While gold and silver prices continue to rise, Bitcoin—often referred to as “digital gold”—has failed to show the same performance. This situation is prompting investors to reassess the perception of safe-haven assets. A report by QCP Capital, which also includes assessments from Chinese analysts, sheds light on the macroeconomic developments and market dynamics explaining why Bitcoin has been unable to keep pace with this rally.
Dollar Weakens, Safe Havens Strengthen
According to QCP Capital’s latest analysis, crypto markets are facing a new macro risk premium. The report notes that sharp selling in the U.S. dollar occurred during the early hours of the Asian session, pushing investors toward alternative stores of value. As a result, the perception of safe-haven assets has once again come to the forefront.
As the dollar weakened, gold and silver accelerated their gains, while Bitcoin struggled to sustain a similar move. Although Bitcoin briefly moved above the $92,000 level, it failed to hold there and pulled back ahead of the European session. Analysts state that this price behavior indicates investors are approaching Bitcoin cautiously amid the current macroeconomic uncertainty.
Powell’s Statements Shifted Market Perception
The report highlights that comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell played a key role in these price movements. Powell’s remarks regarding potential notices and criminal charges from the U.S. Department of Justice against the Fed were perceived by the market as a signal of pressure or retaliation related to the Fed’s monetary policy stance. According to QCP Capital, the short-term economic impact may remain limited; however, questioning central bank independence represents a strong risk signal in terms of institutional credibility. Historically, such uncertainty has driven investors toward traditional safe havens like gold and silver.
Although Bitcoin initially participated in the buying wave, it was rejected at the $92,000 level and retreated. QCP Capital describes this price action as a “familiar fourth-quarter pattern” seen in past periods. The report suggests that Bitcoin’s safe-haven narrative has weakened in the short term, with investors viewing precious metals as a more stable alternative amid uncertainty.
Derivatives market data also supports the cautious outlook for Bitcoin. QCP Capital reported partial reductions in long-dated call option positions last week. Investors’ shift toward longer maturities and higher strike contracts suggests that bullish expectations may be deferred over time. In addition, ongoing selling pressure during U.S. session hours and uncertainty around excess supply are cited as factors limiting Bitcoin’s upside.
Focus on CPI Data and Supreme Court Decision
QCP Capital emphasizes that in an environment of rising macro volatility, the relative attractiveness of crypto assets is being challenged by resilient precious metals and equity markets.
In the coming days, markets will focus on two critical developments:
- U.S. CPI data (Tuesday, January 13)
- The U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling on tariffs (Wednesday, January 14)
According to QCP, these two events will be decisive for risk appetite and cross-asset positioning.
Assessment
While gold and silver continue to rise, Bitcoin’s inability to capture the same momentum stems not only from price action but also from macro-level confidence dynamics. Questions surrounding central bank independence and increasing uncertainty are pushing investors toward traditional safe havens in the short term. For Bitcoin to reverse this perception, clearer signals from the macroeconomic front will be required.
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