Haciyev Reşit 
One of the most frequently asked questions in the crypto markets is back in focus: Will an altcoin season arrive? As market volatility continues, Raoul Pal, CEO of Real Vision and a well-known macro strategist, shared striking insights on the future of Bitcoin and altcoins. His analysis stands out particularly for its strong expectations for 2026.
Raoul Pal: “This Is Not a Bear Market”
Speaking at Binance Blockchain Week 2025, Raoul Pal argued that recent pullbacks are being misinterpreted. According to Pal, the current declines do not signal the start of a broad bear market; instead, they represent healthy corrections within a major bull run. He suggested that crypto markets may move away from the traditional four-year cycle model and enter one of the largest crypto supercycles in history, driven primarily by global liquidity.
At the heart of Pal’s 2026 Alpha Thesis lies the expansion of global money supply. Pal claims that roughly 90% of Bitcoin’s price movement is directly linked to liquidity. He believes that fiscal stimulus policies under the Trump administration and expected adjustments in the U.S. Treasury system will force banks to create significant amounts of capital. This influx of liquidity could provide strong support for risk assets. Pal identifies January and February 2026 as especially critical months.
“January–February 2026 Is the Litmus Test”
According to Pal, price action in the first two months of 2026 will be decisive in validating the supercycle thesis. A strong rally during this period would confirm that crypto markets have entered a long-term expansion phase. Pal expects that as the U.S. dollar weakens and global liquidity increases, capital will first flow into Bitcoin, then rotate further down the risk curve into altcoins.
For altcoin investors, Pal points to a clear macro indicator. He argues that a true altcoin season is likely to begin when the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) index rises above 50, signaling economic expansion. With an improving ISM reading, Pal expects Bitcoin dominance to fall sharply, allowing altcoins to outperform Bitcoin. Historically, such periods have coincided with rapid and aggressive altcoin rallies.
Which Altcoins Could Stand Out?
While acknowledging that the AI narrative will remain relevant, Pal emphasizes that the highest risk–reward opportunities still lie within the crypto ecosystem itself. He highlights next-generation Layer-1 blockchains with rapidly growing network metrics as potential leaders.
In this context, emerging networks such as Sui could be among the biggest beneficiaries of new capital inflows. Pal also suggests that given the scale of expected liquidity, token unlocks or supply increases may be insufficient to halt upward momentum.
Overall Assessment
Raoul Pal’s outlook reinforces a strong long-term bullish narrative for crypto markets. In his view, recent pullbacks are not signs of an ending, but rather pauses within a much larger upward trend. The anticipated rise in global liquidity—especially in 2026—could open the door to a new era for both Bitcoin and altcoins, potentially marking the beginning of a historic expansion phase..
You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.