Emre Yumlu 
Despite reaching a new all-time high of $125,100 in October, Bitcoin overall performance throughout 2025 has been widely debated. Price volatility, declining sentiment, and unmet bullish expectations have led many market participants to question the current phase of the cycle. However, Jan3 founder Samson Mow offers a markedly different perspective, arguing that 2025 should be viewed not as a continuation of a bull market, but as a hidden bear market setting the stage for something much larger.
“The Real Bull Market Is About to Begin”
According to Mow, the past year represents a transitional phase rather than a failure of Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. He suggests that the market conditions seen throughout 2025 resemble a bear market in structure and sentiment, even though prices previously reached record highs. In his view, this period of pressure and consolidation may be the foundation for a bull run that could extend well into the next decade.
Bitcoin analyst PlanC has echoed this interpretation, describing 2025 as a year that tested market resilience. From this perspective, investors who endured the drawdowns and negative sentiment may be positioned ahead of a stronger and more sustained growth cycle.
Bitcoin May Close the Year in the Red
Historically, Bitcoin has never posted two consecutive years with negative annual returns. However, current price action suggests that this pattern could be challenged. Since the start of the year, Bitcoin has declined by approximately 9%, trading near the $87,000 level.
This performance stands in stark contrast to optimistic projections made earlier in the year, when forecasts of $250,000 by year-end gained traction. As prices failed to meet those expectations, market confidence weakened, contributing to persistently low sentiment.
Throughout December, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remained in the “extreme fear” zone, reflecting heightened caution and uncertainty among investors.
Divided Outlooks for 2026
Looking ahead to 2026, the industry remains split. Some veteran market participants anticipate a deeper correction, with potential downside targets ranging between $60,000 and $65,000. These forecasts suggest that another bearish phase could emerge once the current cycle fully resets.
On the other hand, several prominent voices remain constructive. Strategy CEO Phong Le has emphasized that Bitcoin’s underlying fundamentals remained strong throughout 2025, despite price weakness. Similarly, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan believes that 2026 could mark a return to positive momentum rather than a prolonged downturn.
Overall, while short-term uncertainty persists, the debate surrounding Bitcoin’s long-term direction is increasingly focused on structural strength rather than cyclical noise.
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