Emre Yumlu 
The recent surge in social media claims that the crypto market has already found its bottom has sparked renewed debate, especially after the latest analysis from on-chain data provider Santiment. Known for tracking crowd sentiment and behavioral trends, the platform cautions that widespread confidence about a market bottom often signals the opposite.
When the Crowd Calls the Bottom, Caution Is Warranted
In its weekend report, Santiment emphasized that moments of broad agreement among investors rarely align with actual market lows. According to the firm, if large groups of traders begin labeling a price level as the bottom, it may be a sign to stay alert rather than celebrate. Historically, true bottoms tend to form when the majority expects prices to continue falling, not stabilizing.
This warning gains significance as Bitcoin briefly slipped below the $95,000 level, prompting a wave of “the bottom is in” comments across social platforms. Santiment notes that similar waves of optimism in the past have often been followed by renewed downward pressure.
Bitcoin Sentiment Hits a One-Month Low
Despite increasing calls that the dip is over, several well-known market participants remain confident in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. Figures such as BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and BitMine Chairman Tom Lee continue to predict that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 before the end of the year.
Nonetheless, Santiment’s sentiment indicators point to a different short-term trend. Positive commentary surrounding Bitcoin has dropped to its lowest level in a month, even as Bitcoin’s share of overall crypto discussion has climbed above 40%. This combination suggests elevated fear across the market. During the recent correction, social media users heavily focused on allegations that MicroStrategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor was selling Bitcoin—a claim that surged so rapidly online that “Saylor” became a dominant keyword.
Are ETF Outflows Signaling a Crypto Bottom?
Saylor later addressed the rumors directly in a CNBC interview, stating clearly that his company has not sold any Bitcoin. Meanwhile, Santiment highlights another potential indicator worth watching: the sharp rise in outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Historical trends suggest that large ETF inflows often accompany short-term tops, while heavy outflows have frequently aligned with market bottoms driven by panic selling. Over the last three trading days, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a combined outflow of $1.17 billion. Thursday’s $866 million in net outflows was the second-largest daily total since late February, when $1.14 billion exited the market.
As these conflicting signals unfold—optimistic long-term forecasts, fearful sentiment data, and notable ETF withdrawals—investors continue to monitor the market for clues about Bitcoin’s next major move.
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