Haciyev Reşit 
One of the world’s leading banks, Standard Chartered, has made a notable revision to its long-term Bitcoin price forecasts. The bank’s analysts cut their year-end target from $200,000 down to $100,000, effectively halving their previous estimate. Additionally, the long-term target of $500,000, previously expected for 2028, has now been pushed back to 2030. According to analysts, the main reason for this sharp downward adjustment is the lack of a new catalyst to fuel Bitcoin’s upward momentum.
Major Revision in Bitcoin Forecasts
The Standard Chartered analysis team, led by Geoffrey Kendrick, announced significant changes to their projections in a newly published report. The report states that demand growth has progressed more slowly than expected and the market has failed to maintain its previous pace. As a result, the $200,000 year-end target has been reduced to $100,000, while the long-term $500,000 target has been postponed by two years.
Kendrick commented:
“The main reason for lowering our Bitcoin target is that demand is not as strong as it used to be. The long-term target remains $500,000, but the expected date has been moved from 2028 to 2030. Demand growth is slower than anticipated.”
“ETF Inflows Are the Only Strong Support Left”
The report highlights that Bitcoin’s recent resilience is largely dependent on spot ETF inflows. According to the analysts, corporate treasury purchases have decreased significantly, leaving ETF flows as nearly the only remaining driver supporting Bitcoin’s price strength. Based on the report’s data:
- Over the past three months, spot ETF inflows totaled only 50,000 BTC.
- Toward the end of 2024, however, three-month inflows were around 450,000 BTC.
This stark contrast shows that weakening ETF demand is narrowing the structural support behind Bitcoin. The analysts summarized the situation:
“Bitcoin’s price is essentially walking on a single leg—ETFs. But ETF inflows have also weakened noticeably.”
“No New Catalyst for a Rally”
The report states that there is currently no clear catalyst in the market to trigger a strong upward trend for Bitcoin in the near term. Although tomorrow’s expected Fed decision could include a rate cut, analysts believe the key factor will be Powell’s messaging regarding 2026.
The report noted:
“Political pressure on the Fed is affecting risk assets. While the market is optimistic about tomorrow’s rate cut, Powell’s signals for 2026 will be the real determinant. Hassett’s appointment to the Fed could lead to a more expansionary policy, but at the moment there is no new catalyst to support a Bitcoin rally.”
Assessment
Standard Chartered’s decision to halve its Bitcoin target and postpone its long-term forecasts by two years is seen as a major indication of slowing demand in the market. Although spot ETF inflows remain a key supportive factor for Bitcoin, the weakening of these flows has prompted a cautious revision of expectations. When combined with uncertainty surrounding Fed policy and declining institutional demand, the analysts’ cautious approach comes as no surprise. Under these conditions, Bitcoin will likely need a much stronger catalyst to regain upward momentum.
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