According to Hayes, the smarter approach right now is to wait and observe global macroeconomic developments, particularly the next moves from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed).

Federal Reserve Policy Could Be the Key Driver for Bitcoin

Hayes explained that his decision to re-enter the Bitcoin market will largely depend on whether the Federal Reserve begins easing monetary policy. In his view, Bitcoin becomes significantly more attractive when central banks start injecting liquidity into the financial system.

He pointed out that rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could increase the likelihood of large-scale government spending. If that happens, the U.S. may eventually resort to expanding liquidity to support its economic and military commitments. Such an environment could create favorable conditions for assets like Bitcoin.

Hayes emphasized that while some investors argue that war itself benefits Bitcoin, the more accurate interpretation is that money printing benefits Bitcoin. Historically, periods of monetary expansion have tended to support risk assets and alternative investments.

Geopolitical Tensions Could Pressure Markets

The ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran could weigh on global markets, according to Hayes. Escalating conflict often reduces overall risk appetite among investors, which can lead to broad sell-offs across multiple asset classes.

In such a scenario, not only equities but also digital assets like Bitcoin could face downward pressure. Hayes suggested that if the conflict continues to intensify, the market could experience a significant wave of selling.

Under those circumstances, Bitcoin could potentially fall below the $60,000 level. A move like that might trigger a cascade of liquidations in leveraged positions, amplifying volatility across the market.

Bitcoin briefly approached the $60,000 level earlier in February before recovering slightly. At present, the asset is trading near the $69,000 range after a modest rebound.

Hayes Remains Bullish in the Long Term

Despite his cautious stance in the short term, Hayes remains highly optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.

He previously projected that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by 2026, and he continues to stand by that forecast. In his view, the long-term structural drivers supporting Bitcoin remain intact.

Hayes also noted that the period during which Bitcoin trades below $100,000 may not last for many more years. As institutional adoption grows and the market matures, such price levels could eventually become far less common.

Not All Analysts Share the Same View for Bitcoin

While Hayes is taking a wait-and-see approach, some analysts hold a more optimistic short-term outlook for the cryptocurrency market.

Recent strength in technology stocks, particularly the surge in the Nasdaq index, has led some market observers to believe that Bitcoin and altcoins could benefit from renewed investor optimism.

According to this perspective, the broader macroeconomic environment may still support further upside in the crypto market.

Markets Are Watching the Fed

Ultimately, Hayes’ stance reflects a broader theme currently shaping financial markets: the influence of central bank policy. While he maintains strong confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term potential, he believes that the next major bullish phase could be closely tied to renewed monetary easing.

For that reason, Hayes prefers to remain on the sidelines for now, waiting for clearer signals from the Federal Reserve before making new Bitcoin investments.

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The post Arthur Hayes: “I Wouldn’t Bet Even $1 on Bitcoin Right Now” appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Historical Connection Between War and FED Policy

According to Hayes, since 1985, following U.S. military operations in the Middle East, the FED has generally leaned toward loosening monetary policy. Key examples supporting this view include interest rate cuts during the 1990 Gulf War, emergency rate reductions led by Alan Greenspan after the September 11 attacks, and quantitative easing policies during Obama’s Afghanistan operations. Hayes notes that these measures were aimed at stabilizing the economy and supporting the financial system. He emphasizes that this recurring pattern is not coincidental: increased public spending and uncertainty during wartime encourage central banks to inject liquidity and ease financial conditions. An increased money supply translates into greater dollar liquidity in the market. Historically, such expansionary policies support risk assets and can create strong upward momentum for digital assets like Bitcoin, which have a limited supply.

Potential Impact on Bitcoin

Hayes suggests that if the FED lowers interest rates or expands the money supply, it would increase dollar liquidity in the market, creating a more favorable macro environment for Bitcoin. Increased liquidity makes it easier for investors to move into higher-risk assets, typically accelerating capital flows into stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin, with its limited supply, can benefit from the “digital scarcity” narrative during periods of expansionary monetary policy and potentially outperform other assets. However, Hayes warns that this scenario does not mean an automatic or immediate price surge. Without a clear rate cut, balance sheet expansion, or explicit easing signal from the FED, markets are unlikely to price in aggressive upward moves. He stresses that investors should focus not only on geopolitical developments but also on concrete changes in central bank policy; otherwise, taking early positions could increase short-term volatility risk.

Caution in the Short Term

Although Hayes views the long-term picture positively, he emphasizes that investors should act cautiously in the short term. He notes that before the FED officially cuts rates or signals clear expansionary policy, markets may continue to experience sharp and directionless swings. Investors should monitor central bank policies, interest rate decisions, and liquidity conditions closely, rather than relying solely on geopolitical events. At the time of the report, Bitcoin was trading around $68,000. The leading cryptocurrency had lost roughly 30% year-to-date and was about 47% below its October 2025 peak of $126,000. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, remaining in the “extreme fear” zone for five months, underscores the cautious market sentiment. This suggests that investor risk appetite is still limited and clear macro signals are needed for a strong recovery.

Conclusion

Arthur Hayes’ analysis highlights the strong relationship between geopolitical risks and monetary policy. Historical examples show that during wartime and crises, increased liquidity can provide a supportive foundation for limited-supply assets like Bitcoin over the long term. In this context, expansionary monetary policies could serve as a potential catalyst for the crypto market. However, in the short term, it is risky to expect a strong and sustainable rally without clear policy signals from the FED. Therefore, both geopolitical developments and FED interest rate and liquidity decisions will continue to be decisive factors for Bitcoin’s direction in the near future.

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The post Why the Iran Conflict Could Boost Bitcoin? appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Hyperliquid (HYPE) Price Prediction

According to Hayes, HYPE has not yet reached its true valuation. He argues that the token is still undergoing price discovery and that the market has not fully priced in its potential. Once this discovery phase is complete, Hayes believes HYPE could climb into triple-digit territory, maintaining a long-term price target of $150. Currently trading at around $31 with a market capitalization of approximately $8 billion, HYPE ranks among the top 15 altcoins by market value. Based on current levels, Hayes’ $150 target implies nearly a 5x upside. However, for this scenario to materialize, both broader market conditions and the continued growth of the Hyperliquid ecosystem would need to remain strong.

Hayes commented:

“While traditional markets are closed, price discovery in the HYPE chart continues. My long-term target is $150.”

This statement has drawn particular attention from investors interested in derivatives exchanges and on-chain trading ecosystems.

Controversy Around Hayes’ Past HYPE Activity

Arthur Hayes has previously made multiple bullish statements about HYPE and openly expressed his interest in the project. However, on-chain data indicates that he has also sold portions of his HYPE holdings during previous price rallies. This has occasionally sparked debate within the market, as investors closely monitor the relationship between his public statements and wallet activity. Recent data shows that wallets associated with Hayes still hold approximately $6.9 million worth of HYPE tokens. This suggests he has not fully exited his position and continues to maintain significant exposure. Large investor portfolio movements, especially in highly liquid altcoins, are closely watched for short-term market signals.

Hayes has followed similar patterns before with other altcoins such as Ethena and Pendle, where he expressed bullish expectations before selling at certain price levels. As a result, his latest comments on HYPE are being interpreted in two ways: as a strong bullish signal, but also as a potential setup for future profit-taking. The transparency of on-chain data makes such movements particularly significant following public statements.

Why Is Hyperliquid (HYPE) Gaining Attention?

Hyperliquid stands out as a next-generation decentralized derivatives exchange. Offering high speed, low transaction fees, and an on-chain liquidity structure, it has quickly attracted a substantial user base. With an $8 billion market capitalization, HYPE has entered the ranks of major altcoins and is closely followed by professional traders and DeFi participants. Arthur Hayes’ $150 target for Hyperliquid (HYPE) has reignited debate in the market. Given the current price level, this projection signals strong upside expectations. However, considering Hayes’ history of similar bullish calls followed by strategic selling, investors continue to monitor both his statements and on-chain wallet movements carefully.

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The post Arthur Hayes Expects a Rally for This Altcoin! appeared first on Coin Engineer.

An Ambitious Target for HYPE from Arthur Hayes

In his assessment, Arthur Hayes stated that the HYPE token could deliver strong performance in the coming period. He argued that potential financial stress and liquidity shifts in global markets may trigger rapid and sharp upward movements in certain altcoins. During such periods, capital flowing into alternative assets can drive stronger-than-expected price action in selected projects. Hayes suggested that fragilities in the financial system could create new opportunities in the crypto market and described the $150 target for July as achievable. He noted that this level represents approximately a fivefold increase from current prices, adding that a potential liquidity expansion and a change in risk appetite could act as powerful catalysts for assets like HYPE.

The prominent investor also highlighted growing risks in the global financial system. Hayes described Bitcoin’s recent weakening correlation with the Nasdaq 100 index as an “alarm” for global fiat liquidity conditions. According to him, this divergence could signal the onset of a credit crunch and a period of market stress. Hayes further warned that the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence could significantly reshape the labor market. He suggested that around 20% of white-collar workers could lose their jobs, potentially increasing default rates in consumer and mortgage loans. Such a scenario, he noted, could lead to hundreds of billions of dollars in losses for commercial banks.

Fed Policy and Altcoin Strategy

Hayes stated that even if Bitcoin experiences sharp declines, market pressure could persist if the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) does not resume monetary easing. However, in the event of a financial crisis or credit contraction, he believes the Fed would be forced to step in to support the economy and inject liquidity into the system. Such intervention could reignite demand for risk assets.

Under this scenario, Hayes indicated that his Maelstrom fund could allocate part of its stablecoin holdings to altcoins such as ZEC and HYPE. He argued that altcoins often show stronger and faster price movements during periods of fresh liquidity entering the market. Therefore, a potential phase of monetary expansion could trigger sharp rallies, particularly in select altcoins.

A New Wave of Speculation in the Market?

Hayes’ statements are widely viewed as capable of igniting a new speculative wave in the altcoin market. Large investors shifting toward specific projects during potential liquidity expansion phases could significantly accelerate short-term price movements. Arthur Hayes’ $150 projection for HYPE has once again turned market attention toward altcoins. Global liquidity trends, Fed policy decisions, and possible financial stress scenarios will likely continue to shape the direction of crypto market price action in the coming period.

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The post Arthur Hayes: Expects an Explosion in This Altcoin’s Price! appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Where Could the Liquidity Come From?

At the heart of Hayes’ argument is the US Treasury General Account (TGA), essentially the government’s primary cash account held at the Federal Reserve. When balances in the TGA are elevated, funds remain parked and largely outside the broader financial system. As the balance declines through government spending, liquidity flows back into banks and markets.

Currently, the TGA balance stands near $750 billion, while the Treasury’s guidance suggests a target closer to $450 billion. That gap implies roughly $301 billion could be released into the financial system as the balance is drawn down.

In addition, the Treasury has initiated bond buybacks aimed at improving market functioning by repurchasing older debt. Hayes estimates that, at the current pace, these buybacks could inject another $271 billion annually. Combined, these two channels represent a potential liquidity boost of approximately $572 billion.

A Form of “Stealth Stimulus”?

Although this process is not formally labeled as monetary easing, Hayes argues that its practical effect may resemble stimulus. While the Federal Reserve maintains a tight policy stance in its messaging, Treasury operations are simultaneously increasing cash circulation. In liquidity-driven markets, capital flows often carry more weight than rhetoric.

Historically, periods of expanding liquidity have tended to support risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

What Does This Mean for Bitcoin?

Hayes believes the most difficult phase for crypto may already be over. He points out that Bitcoin has historically shown a strong relationship with global liquidity conditions. When US dollar supply expands, scarce assets such as BTC often experience upward pressure.

He also notes that extreme funding rates suggest crowded short positioning in the market. If fresh liquidity enters the system while traders are heavily positioned to the downside, a sharp short squeeze could follow. In that scenario, Hayes sees room for Bitcoin to revisit all-time highs and potentially approach the $100,000 level.

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Hayes describes Bitcoin as a “global fiat liquidity fire alarm.” Among freely traded assets, he believes Bitcoin reacts fastest to shifts in fiat money supply and credit conditions. The recent decoupling from the Nasdaq 100 Index—after a long period of correlation—raises red flags in his framework. When historically aligned assets begin to move in opposite directions, Hayes suggests investors should investigate what underlying stress might be building within the financial system.

AI Job Losses and the Credit Risk Scenario

At the core of Hayes’ thesis is the accelerating wave of AI-related job cuts. In 2025 alone, companies reportedly attributed around 55,000 layoffs directly to artificial intelligence adoption—more than twelve times the figure recorded just two years earlier.

Hayes projects a more severe macro impact if this trend intensifies. He estimates that if 20% of the United States’ 72 million knowledge workers were displaced, the resulting losses in consumer credit and mortgage debt could reach approximately $557 billion. Such a shock would translate into roughly a 13% write-down of U.S. commercial bank equity. Regional banks, in particular, could face acute stress, triggering deposit flight and tightening credit markets.

Central Banks and the Return of Money Printing

In this scenario, Hayes believes the Federal Reserve would eventually be forced to respond with aggressive liquidity measures. An AI-driven financial shock, in his assessment, would reopen the monetary spigots.

He argues that renewed fiat credit expansion would likely propel Bitcoin sharply higher from depressed levels. Even the anticipation of expanded money supply, he suggests, could push Bitcoin toward a new all-time high. Hayes has also indicated that his firm, Maelstrom, would allocate capital to Zcash and Hyperliquid if the Fed pivots toward monetary easing.

A Pattern in Hayes’ Liquidity Thesis

This is not the first time Hayes has advanced a bold liquidity-driven forecast. Earlier, he suggested that money printing could emerge in response to a Japanese bond crisis, and he previously projected Bitcoin reaching $200,000 amid anticipated Fed liquidity programs.

While controversial, Hayes’ central argument remains consistent: as vulnerabilities within the fiat system intensify, Bitcoin may increasingly be viewed as an alternative store of value.

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The post Hayes Issues a “Fiat Fire Alarm” Warning: Bitcoin vs. Tech Stocks appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Let’s break down Hayes’ wallet activity, the market impact, and the surrounding information noise.

Hayes’ Wallet Activity and Sale Details

Massive token transfers over the past 15–20 minutes have been interpreted by the market as sales. Movements from Hayes’ known wallets to addresses such as Binance, Wintermute, and FalconX indicate a possible liquidation.

Lookonchain data further clarifies the situation:

Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) is selling DeFi tokens.
In the past 15 minutes, he moved approximately 8.57M $ENA ($1.06), 2.04M $ETHFI ($954K), and 950K $PENDLE ($1.14M) out of his wallet — likely to sell.

Key sales are as follows:

• ENA (Ethena): 8,570,000 tokens at $0.123 per token, total value $1,060,900

• PENDLE: 950,022 tokens at $1.19–$1.20 per token, total value $1,137,350

• ETHFI (Ether.fi): 2,043,142 tokens at $0.466 per token, total value $953,410

These numbers are being interpreted as significant selling pressure by the market.

$10.37 Million Loss Claim

Some reports suggest Hayes suffered a $10.37 million loss, but current verified data indicates a smaller loss. On-chain analyst Yujin reports that Hayes’ total loss on accumulated DeFi tokens since December is approximately $3.15 million.

Therefore, the $10 million figure cannot yet be confirmed without cost-basis and transaction-level verification. Hayes’ own statement reflects the uncertainty:

“I had to take it all back… I promise, I’ll never take profit again.”

While phrased sarcastically, this remark may indicate a reduced risk appetite.

Market Conditions and Strategic Retreat

CoinGecko data shows Bitcoin briefly dipped to around $68,500, with a weekly loss of about 16%. Such market conditions tend to make the movements of large wallets closely scrutinized.

Hayes’ $3.15–$3.48 million sales alone are sufficient to create short-term price pressure. However, without a transparent cost table, any interpretation remains somewhat speculative.

The data relies on Arkham-labeled wallets. Sending crypto to exchanges does not always equate to immediate sales; past actions provide a reference for possible liquidation strategies.

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The post Which DeFi Token Did BitMEX Founder Arthur Hayes Sell? appeared first on Coin Engineer.

According to Hayes, Bitcoin has the potential to reclaim leadership in 2026, provided that US dollar liquidity begins to expand meaningfully.

Can Bitcoin Rally Without Liquidity Support?

Hayes emphasizes that Bitcoin’s historical price movements are deeply connected to monetary conditions. Periods of abundant liquidity have consistently aligned with strong Bitcoin rallies, while tightening cycles have weighed heavily on crypto markets.

He notes that assets such as gold and the Nasdaq benefited from favorable liquidity dynamics, leaving Bitcoin sidelined. For Bitcoin to “find its rhythm again,” Hayes argues, the supply of dollars must increase. In his view, this shift is not only possible but likely to occur in 2026.

Key Drivers Behind Potential Dollar Liquidity Growth

Several catalysts could contribute to a sharp increase in dollar liquidity over the coming years. Hayes points to a potential expansion of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, signaling renewed monetary easing. Lower mortgage rates, driven by looser financial conditions, could also inject additional liquidity into the system.

In addition, Hayes highlights the role of commercial banks, suggesting they may become more willing to extend credit to government-backed strategic industries. Rising defense-related expenditures, in particular, could require substantial financing through the banking sector, reinforcing broader monetary expansion.

Why Technology Stocks Stayed Strong in 2025

Despite declining dollar liquidity in 2025, the Nasdaq avoided a comparable downturn. Hayes attributes this resilience to the strategic importance of artificial intelligence. Both the United States and China have effectively elevated AI to a national priority, channeling capital into the sector through government investment and executive actions.

This intervention, he argues, weakened traditional free-market signals and allowed capital to flow into AI-related equities regardless of underlying return metrics. As a result, technology stocks emerged as the strongest-performing segment within the S&P 500.

Bitcoin as Monetary Technology

Hayes ultimately frames Bitcoin as a form of monetary technology whose value is inseparable from fiat currency debasement. While Bitcoin declined roughly 14% in 2025 and gold surged more than 44%, he cautions against drawing long-term conclusions from short-term performance gaps.

In his assessment, sustained monetary expansion remains the critical condition for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs, positioning 2026 as a potential turning point for the asset.

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On-chain data shows Hayes not only sold ETH but also withdrew $2.52 million from exchanges, moving it into DeFi assets. This is not a sudden trade but a deliberate two-week repositioning. His move increases ETH selling pressure while signaling a strategic tilt toward undervalued DeFi opportunities.

DeFi Portfolio Highlights

PENDLE dominates Hayes’ DeFi holdings, making up nearly 49% of the allocation at $1.75 million. LDO and ENA holdings are valued around $1.3 million and $1.24 million, respectively, while ETHFI is a smaller but strategic component at $343k. This allocation shows a concentrated confidence in certain DeFi projects rather than a broad diversification.

Liquidity Over Price Drops

Despite recent declines in PENDLE, LDO, and ETHFI, Hayes focuses on macro liquidity trends rather than short-term price movements. He expects fiat liquidity improvements to disproportionately benefit DeFi tokens over large-cap layer-one assets like Ethereum, challenging traditional market assumptions.

ETH Pressure Mounts

Hayes’ repeated ETH sales, including previous moves to Binance, reinforce the ongoing selling pressure. While Ethereum remains foundational, high-profile exits like Hayes’ increase negative sentiment and highlight a growing preference for DeFi tokens.

Arthur Hayes’ DeFi bet signals a shift in market focus. ETH remains under pressure, while DeFi tokens could see underappreciated gains as liquidity flows in. The outcome remains uncertain, but this strategic reallocation offers a strong market signal.

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The post Arthur Hayes Dumps ETH: Which DeFi Tokens Did He Buy? appeared first on Coin Engineer.

According to Hayes, the Federal Reserve (Fed) may be engaging in an indirect form of monetary expansion—one that markets have yet to fully price in.

A “Technical” Program With QE-Like Effects

At the center of Hayes’ argument is a Federal Reserve mechanism known as Reserve Management Purchases (RMP). Officially, the Fed describes RMP as a technical liquidity management tool designed to ensure the smooth functioning of the banking system. Hayes, however, believes the real impact closely mirrors that of traditional quantitative easing.

He points out that under this framework, the Fed is purchasing roughly $40 billion worth of short-term US Treasury bills each month. While the central bank avoids labeling this as stimulus, Hayes argues that the result is the same: fresh liquidity entering the financial system. Unlike previous QE programs, RMP does not appear to have a clearly defined cap or end date, which, in his view, makes it even more supportive for risk assets over time.

“Not QE, Just Money Creation”

Hayes breaks the process down in simple terms. The Fed creates new money and uses it to buy government debt. The institutions selling those bonds then redeploy the newly created capital—either back into fixed income markets, through lending to hedge funds, or into risk assets such as equities and cryptocurrencies. Eventually, that liquidity filters through the broader economy.

From Hayes’ perspective, the distinction between QE and RMP is largely semantic. He describes the mechanism bluntly as the monetary printing press operating at full speed. Once investors begin to recognize this dynamic, he believes Bitcoin could respond aggressively to the upside.

A $200,000 Bitcoin Scenario for 2026

Despite his long-term optimism, Hayes remains cautious in the near term. He expects Bitcoin to remain range-bound between $80,000 and $100,000 through the end of 2025. The main reason, he argues, is that markets are still accepting the Fed’s narrative that RMP is not a form of monetary easing.

That perception, according to Hayes, could change in early 2026. If investors begin to treat RMP as de facto QE, he expects Bitcoin to reclaim the $124,000 level and potentially accelerate toward $200,000 within the first quarter of that year.

Policy Uncertainty as a Market Driver

Recent Federal Open Market Committee decisions underscore the uncertainty surrounding US monetary policy. A 25-basis-point rate cut, combined with visible disagreements among policymakers, highlights a lack of clear direction. Hayes views this uncertainty not as a threat, but as an opportunity for Bitcoin to strengthen its role as a monetary hedge.

As 2026 approaches, the broader message is clear: Federal Reserve policy—whether openly expansionary or not—may play a decisive role in shaping Bitcoin’s next major move.

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