According to PlanB, considering Bitcoin’s supply structure and past market cycles, much higher price levels appear theoretically possible in this cycle. This assessment is based on economic models relying on Bitcoin’s limited supply.

What Does the Stock-to-Flow Model Say?

At the core of PlanB’s analysis lies the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model. This model attempts to measure scarcity by comparing an asset’s existing stock with the rate of new production. For assets with limited supply like Bitcoin, this approach provides a framework for understanding potential value increases.

The “halving” event that occurs approximately every four years in the Bitcoin network halves the block reward miners receive. This mechanism reduces the amount of newly produced Bitcoin while also restricting the new supply entering the market. If demand remains the same or increases, this scarcity can create upward pressure on the price.

According to PlanB’s calculations, in the current cycle Bitcoin’s price could trade in a range between $250,000 and $1 million. The analyst suggests that the average value of this range could be around $500,000. However, he particularly emphasizes that this forecast does not represent a specific peak price, but rather the average levels that could form throughout the cycle.

There Are Also More Cautious Forecasts

That said, not all analysts share such high price predictions. While some market experts acknowledge significant upside potential for Bitcoin, they set more measured targets.

Crypto analyst Bobby A believes Bitcoin could experience a strong rise in the current market cycle, but more realistic targets would likely fall in the $200,000 to $250,000 range. According to him, these levels could be seen as the market cycle matures in 2026 or 2027.

Bobby A also argues that models like Stock-to-Flow should be evaluated more as theoretical tools that help understand long-term trends rather than tools that produce precise price predictions.

Short-Term Outlook for Bitcoin

In the short term, Bitcoin’s price continues to follow a volatile path. Recently approaching the $74,000 level, the price then experienced some pullback. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $67,300. Although a slight decline was observed in the last 24 hours, a limited increase stands out on a weekly basis.

Various factors lie behind this volatility in the market. Geopolitical developments in the Middle East and changes in investment flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs are among the main elements influencing price movements.

Nevertheless, many analysts believe that after the strong rally that pushed Bitcoin above $72,000 earlier in the year, the market is currently in more of a consolidation phase. This period is regarded as a time when the market is trying to balance itself before determining a new direction.

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Why Market Dynamics Have Shifted

Back in 2018, roughly 1,000 cryptocurrencies were actively traded, and market cycles appeared more predictable. Investors closely followed Bitcoin halving events, which often served as psychological anchors for broader bull and bear cycles. After major post-halving rallies, traders typically rotated capital between Bitcoin and altcoin pairs, locking in gains as momentum slowed.

Through 2021, market activity remained largely retail-driven. The four-year cycle model—anchored around Bitcoin halvings—was widely accepted as a reliable framework for anticipating market peaks and corrections.

However, analyst Inmortal argues that this framework no longer reflects today’s environment. Institutional capital has entered the market at scale, directing billions of dollars primarily toward large-cap assets such as Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana. At the same time, thousands of new tokens were launched in 2025 alone, spreading liquidity across an increasingly fragmented landscape.

Liquidity Fragmentation and Diminishing Upside

Many retail participants expected institutional inflows to lift the entire market. Instead, large funds have concentrated exposure in a handful of major assets, while retail investors have chased short-term narratives across smaller tokens.

This dispersion of liquidity has reduced the probability of explosive rallies across the broader altcoin market. Under current conditions, the analyst projects that as many as 99% of altcoins may never return to their former peaks. The traditional four-year cycle model, once used as a strategic compass, may no longer provide reliable signals.

Is the Four-Year Cycle Breaking Down?

Historically, halving-driven cycles worked partly because limited awareness made patterns self-reinforcing. As more participants began anticipating these cycles, their predictive power weakened. Some projections made in 2022 pointed to a late-2025 peak, which broadly aligned with the market high seen in October 2025.

Unlike the 2018–2021 cycle, which featured a sharp 75% drawdown followed by prolonged sideways movement, the current correction has unfolded more rapidly. Yet long-term support levels, such as the 200-week moving average, remain intact.

The analyst suggests that 80–90% of the expected decline may already be complete, potentially followed by around 200 days of consolidation before expansion resumes. If accurate, this would represent a mid-cycle reset rather than a prolonged bear market. Even so, the outlook for most altcoins remains challenging, as capital concentration in major assets continues to limit broader recovery potential.

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A Standout Performance Across All Time Horizons

Silver’s rally becomes even more striking when viewed across different timeframes. On a daily basis, prices climbed by 2.95%, while the monthly gain has reached an impressive 51%. On an annual scale, silver is up an extraordinary 292%, placing it among the best-performing major assets.

The pace of the move has accelerated sharply in recent weeks. Over the past two weeks alone, prices have risen by more than 30%, making silver one of the most significant market stories of 2026 so far. This rapid appreciation has forced many market participants to abandon previously conservative short-term forecasts much earlier than expected.

Citi Revises Outlook: $150 Target Comes Into Focus

Following the sharp advance, Citigroup has revised its short-term outlook decisively upward. Just two weeks ago, the bank had set a 0–3 month target of $85 per ounce. After silver swiftly broke above $100, Citi increased its short-term target to $150 per ounce.

According to Maximilian Layton, Global Head of Commodities Research at Citi, silver still has room to climb until it begins to look historically expensive relative to gold. Layton emphasizes that the current price action is being driven less by traditional supply-demand fundamentals and more by capital flows. This behavior has led many investors to describe silver as acting like “gold squared” or “gold on steroids.”

What Is Powering Silver’s Surge?

Citi points to several forces underpinning the rally. Rising geopolitical tensions and renewed concerns over the independence of the US Federal Reserve are fueling both investment and speculative demand. In periods of heightened uncertainty, silver appears to be benefiting alongside other hard assets.

Demand from China has been a key driver, with additional support coming from India and a broad base of global retail investors. Notably, traditional indicators that might normally slow prices—such as falling ETF holdings, lower Comex positioning, or declining inventories—have failed to cool the rally. Premiums in Shanghai and India continue to signal tight market conditions.

Will Policy Tightening Slow the Momentum?

Chinese authorities have taken steps to curb speculative excess by suspending new subscriptions in the country’s sole silver ETF and raising margin requirements on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. Despite these measures, Citi does not expect a meaningful slowdown in demand.

Layton argues that retail investors in China tend to follow strong price trends, which could further tighten the market rather than ease it. As long as this behavior persists, upward pressure on prices may remain intact.

In summary, silver continues to stand out as one of the hottest assets in global markets, supported by powerful momentum, strong investor conviction, and increasingly bullish expectations.

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Trade Tensions Drive Gold to New Highs

Gold prices climbed to an all-time high of $5,080 on Monday, marking a significant milestone for the precious metal. Since the beginning of the year, gold has gained 17%, reflecting strong demand from investors seeking protection against macroeconomic instability.

Concerns surrounding a potential US government shutdown have added further pressure to markets, amplifying risk aversion. At the same time, the Trump administration’s increasingly aggressive trade rhetoric has unsettled global investors. In particular, renewed tariff threats have reignited fears of prolonged trade disputes and supply chain disruptions.

US President Donald Trump’s warning of a 100% tariff on Canada, linked to broader China-related trade negotiations, has once again placed global commerce under scrutiny. These developments extend beyond short-term volatility and have reinforced longer-term demand for assets perceived as stores of value.

Silver and Precious Metals Join the Rally

The surge in gold is not occurring in isolation. Silver prices have also reached a historic milestone, surpassing $107 per ounce for the first time ever. Since the start of 2026, silver has risen 48%, underscoring a broader bullish trend across the precious metals complex.

This coordinated move suggests that investors are positioning defensively across multiple hard assets rather than reacting to a single headline-driven catalyst.

Bitcoin and Gold Continue to Decouple

While precious metals advance, Bitcoin tells a different story. The leading cryptocurrency has retreated to around $86,000, roughly 30% below its October peak of $126,000. This decline has widened the gap between Bitcoin and gold, challenging the narrative that digital assets consistently function as “digital gold” during periods of macro stress.

Investors Favor Gold Over Treasuries

Another notable shift is the relatively muted demand for US Treasuries. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged—supported by resilient economic growth and labor data—have reduced the appeal of bonds as a defensive play.

Combined with political uncertainty and fiscal risk, these conditions have pushed global investors away from government debt and toward gold instead.

In summary, gold’s record-breaking rally highlights how capital flows behave during periods of elevated uncertainty. While Bitcoin remains a long-term speculative asset for many, recent price action suggests that, for now, investors continue to place greater trust in traditional safe havens.

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New All-Time High in Daily Transactions

Ethereum processed 2,885,524 transactions in a single day on Friday, setting a new record for daily activity. This milestone reflects a clear acceleration in network usage that has been building since mid-December. After a prolonged slowdown throughout much of 2025, transaction volumes began to recover toward the end of the year and have continued climbing into early 2026.

Importantly, this increase does not appear to be a one-off spike. Instead, it suggests a broader shift back toward higher baseline activity levels across the Ethereum ecosystem, driven by applications, users, and infrastructure returning to sustained growth.

Network Load Rising Without Fee Pressure

One of the most notable aspects of this surge is what has not happened. Despite record transaction counts, average gas fees remain close to recent lows. In previous market cycles, similar increases in usage often resulted in sharp fee spikes and network congestion.

This time, Ethereum appears better equipped to handle demand. Ongoing protocol upgrades, combined with the growing role of layer-2 networks, have significantly reduced pressure on the main chain. While overall activity is rising, a meaningful portion of that load is being distributed more efficiently across the broader Ethereum scaling stack.

Staking Queues Signal Stability, Not Stress

Alongside higher transaction activity, Ethereum’s staking mechanics are showing signs of balance rather than strain. The validator exit queue has dropped to zero, meaning stakers can withdraw ETH without delay. At the same time, entry queues remain extended, indicating continued interest in staking without a rush to exit.

This combination points to a stable staking environment. There is no evidence of panic withdrawals or speculative lockups. Instead, participation appears steady, suggesting confidence in the network’s long-term fundamentals.

What This Means for Ethereum Narrative

Taken together, record transaction throughput, low fees, and stable staking conditions suggest Ethereum is maturing as a network. It is increasingly capable of supporting heavy usage without the bottlenecks that once defined periods of high demand.

For users, this translates into a smoother experience. For the broader market, it subtly challenges the long-standing assumption that higher usage must inevitably lead to fee spikes and reduced supply pressure. Ethereum’s current performance suggests a more nuanced reality is taking shape.

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Gold Pushes to All-Time Highs

Gold prices continued their upward momentum during Asian trading hours, rising by approximately 0.6% to trade above $4,500 per ounce. During the session, spot gold reached a new all-time high near $4,530, while U.S. gold futures climbed to around $4,535.

The yellow metal delivered an exceptionally strong performance throughout 2024, marking its best annual gain since 1979. This sustained rally has been driven by several factors, including signals of monetary easing from the Federal Reserve, consistent purchases by central banks, increasing demand from gold-backed ETFs, and persistent global uncertainty. Together, these dynamics have reinforced gold’s role as a strategic store of value.

Silver Breaks a Historic Barrier

Silver prices posted even sharper gains. Spot silver rose more than 3% during the session, briefly exceeding $75 per ounce and setting a new historical record. This milestone represents a significant psychological and technical breakthrough for the metal.

Since the beginning of the year, silver has surged by approximately 158%, far outperforming gold’s 72% increase over the same period. Market analysts attribute silver’s strength to a combination of structural supply deficits, its classification as a critical industrial metal, and robust demand from sectors such as renewable energy, electronics, and advanced manufacturing.

Platinum and Palladium Join the Rally

Platinum prices also recorded notable gains, reaching an intraday record of nearly $2,430 before settling around $2,393, up more than 7% on the day. Palladium followed suit, climbing over 5% to trade near $1,770.

On a year-to-date basis, platinum has gained more than 160%, while palladium is up over 90%. Both metals are heavily used in automotive catalytic converters, making them sensitive to supply constraints, trade-related uncertainties, and shifts in investor allocation toward hard assets.

Interest Rate Expectations and Geopolitical Risks

Markets are increasingly pricing in two interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2025. Lower rates tend to benefit non-yielding assets such as precious metals by reducing the opportunity cost of holding them. At the same time, geopolitical developments — including sanctions on Venezuelan oil and ongoing security concerns in the Middle East and parts of Africa — continue to drive demand for safe-haven assets.

Overall, the current environment underscores the renewed importance of precious metals as investors seek protection amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

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Gold Reaches a Historic Peak

Gold prices climbed to a new all-time high, with spot gold reaching $4,475 per ounce. This milestone reflects heightened risk aversion across global markets, particularly following increasing geopolitical tensions between the United States and Venezuela. As uncertainty intensifies, investors have continued to reduce exposure to risk assets in favor of stores of value such as gold.

Since the beginning of the year, gold has gained more than 70%, supported by multiple structural drivers. Expectations of interest rate cuts, sustained buying by central banks, reduced reliance on the US dollar in global reserves, and strong inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds have all contributed to the rally. Market analysts note that as the year-end approaches, declining liquidity could amplify price volatility, leaving gold especially sensitive to geopolitical developments and shifts in monetary policy expectations.

Silver Outperforms with Stronger Momentum

Silver has delivered an even more impressive performance. Spot silver briefly tested the $70 level, marking a new record, and is currently trading around $69.10. With gains exceeding 141% year-to-date, silver has significantly outperformed gold in percentage terms.

Analysts attribute silver’s strong rally to a combination of structural supply deficits, robust industrial demand, and growing investor participation. While some consolidation may occur in the short term due to seasonal factors such as the holiday period, many market participants expect the upward trend to resume once trading volumes normalize.

Broad-Based Strength Across Precious Metals

The rally is not limited to gold and silver. Other precious metals have also recorded notable gains. Platinum rose 1.2% to $2,145.10, reaching its highest level in 17 years. Meanwhile, palladium surged 3.4% to $1,819, marking a three-year high.

Looking ahead, analysts continue to highlight ambitious medium- to long-term price targets. Gold is increasingly discussed around the $5,000 level, while $75 is viewed as a potential upside target for silver. Overall, the strong performance across precious metals underscores their resilience and strategic importance in an environment defined by uncertainty and shifting global dynamics.

*This content does not constitute investment advice.

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The scale and consistency of the price movement suggest that silver is not experiencing a temporary spike, but rather benefiting from a broader structural trend within the global market environment.

Strong Performance Across All Timeframes

Recent price data highlights the strength of silver’s upward momentum. On a daily basis, the metal has posted a gain of 3.62 percent, signaling aggressive short-term demand. Looking at a broader horizon, monthly growth has reached 31.14 percent, while the annual increase stands at an impressive 116.23 percent.

These figures place silver among the strongest-performing assets in the commodities space over the past year. The magnitude of this rise indicates that silver is outperforming many traditional investment instruments, reinforcing its relevance in diversified portfolios.

Key Drivers Behind the Rally

Several macroeconomic and sector-specific factors are contributing to silver’s historic surge. Global economic uncertainty continues to push investors toward assets perceived as stores of value, while persistent inflation concerns are further strengthening demand for precious metals.

Beyond its role as a financial hedge, silver’s industrial importance is also playing a critical role. Expanding use in renewable energy technologies, electric vehicles, and advanced electronics has significantly increased consumption. As these industries grow, silver’s dual identity as both a monetary and industrial metal becomes increasingly valuable.

Supply Constraints and Market Outlook

On the supply side, limited production growth has added upward pressure on prices. Mining constraints, rising operational costs, and slower capacity expansion have made it difficult for supply to keep pace with accelerating demand.

Market analysts note that while short-term price fluctuations and profit-taking remain possible, the broader trend for silver remains constructive. Long-term interest appears resilient, supported by both macroeconomic conditions and structural demand growth.

Silver Reclaims the Spotlight

Silver’s rise to 66 dollars per ounce marks a defining moment for the precious metals market. With strong daily, monthly, and annual performance, silver is no longer viewed merely as an alternative asset but as a central component of global investment narratives. Future price direction will largely depend on economic developments, inflation trends, and the continued expansion of industrial demand.

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A Weakening Dollar Could Open the Door for Bitcoin Buyers

According to QCP Capital’s latest report, while the U.S. economy shows signs of slowing, it still maintains resilience. Core inflation remains near 3%, and the potential for a gradual shift in the Federal Reserve’s policy stance is emerging.

The firm noted that the latest market correction was less about policy changes and more about portfolio repositioning. Rising long-term bond yields and a brief strengthening of the dollar prompted profit-taking, particularly in technology and AI-related stocks.

Gold Hits Record Highs — What Does It Mean for Bitcoin?

Gold recently crossed the $4,000 per ounce threshold, highlighting a renewed safe-haven demand. QCP Capital emphasized that “a more flexible, lower interest rate stance from the Fed could create a ‘Goldilocks’ environment for both gold and Bitcoin.”

Asian Markets Provide Supportive Liquidity

In Asia, markets reacted positively to Japan’s election results, with the Nikkei index climbing higher. A weakening yen combined with expansionary fiscal policies boosted regional risk appetite. QCP pointed out that this could also translate into additional liquidity for crypto markets during Asian trading hours.

Long-Term Trend Favors Risk Assets

The report concluded that periods of dollar weakness should be seen as potential buying opportunities for Bitcoin. While short-term volatility may persist due to limited data availability and geopolitical risks, QCP stressed that the broader, long-term trajectory still leans in favor of risk assets — with Bitcoin at the forefront.

*This content does not contain investment advice.

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Liquidity Flows: Bitcoin as the Final Destination

One of the most decisive drivers in today’s markets is liquidity. Following Federal Reserve rate cuts, institutional capital tends to move first into highly liquid assets like equities and gold. Crypto assets, on the other hand, typically receive capital inflows at a later stage of the cycle.

This isn’t new. Previous cycles have shown the same pattern: a short-term rally right after rate cuts, followed by corrections in traditional markets, and only then a delayed move where Bitcoin and Ethereum start gaining traction.

Stablecoin Reserves Show Weak Momentum

Another factor is the movement of stablecoins. While the overall supply of stablecoins is at record levels, exchange balances are shrinking. Instead of deploying stablecoins into centralized platforms, investors are increasingly using them for cross-chain bridging, private deals, or simply holding them on the sidelines.

This reduced inflow of stablecoins into exchanges slows down fresh liquidity entering crypto markets, limiting Bitcoin’s ability to build strong upward momentum.

Leverage and Hedging Pressure

Data from derivatives platforms reveal a growing preference for leveraged trades and hedging strategies rather than outright accumulation. This is common in range-bound environments, where traders aim to manage risk instead of betting on long-term upside.

Such positioning adds pressure on Bitcoin in the short run, keeping prices subdued even as other asset classes continue their rallies.

Bitcoin’s Delayed but Stronger Catch-Up

History suggests that Bitcoin tends to lag behind gold and equities before eventually playing catch-up. Analysts highlight that in the 30 days after equity markets peak, Bitcoin has historically gained around 12% on average. Over a 90-day period, that figure climbs to nearly 35%.

In the near term, however, challenges remain: ongoing quantitative tightening (QT), Treasury issuance draining liquidity, and looming options expiries could all weigh on price action. Still, the longer-term outlook remains favorable, with liquidity cycles expected to shift in crypto’s favor as traditional markets begin to lose momentum.

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