What Is the 4-Year Cycle?

Bitcoin four-year cycle is triggered by halving events, which reduce miner rewards by half and slow new supply. Historically, the cycle has three phases:

1. Accumulation Phase: Investors collect Bitcoin as supply tightens. Long-term holders take positions, while new investors enter the market.

2. Bull Run: Approximately 12–18 months after accumulation, prices surge and often reach new all-time highs (ATH).

3. Correction / Bear Market: After the bull run, prices pull back sharply, followed by a multi-year consolidation as the market resets for the next cycle.

“Cycles used to give us a roadmap, but the market is now shaped by more complex dynamics,” says Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research.

By 2025, institutional ETFs, corporate Bitcoin reserves, and macro factors are reshaping the classic cycle, making price movements more complex than halving alone.

Is the Cycle Broken?

Some analysts argue the four-year cycle broke in 2025. Sustained institutional demand and corporate reserves have softened the typical post-halving drop.

Grayscale predicts strong macro demand and a supportive U.S. regulatory environment will help Bitcoin reach a new ATH in the first half of 2026.

“The four-year cycle theory is no longer valid,” says Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, revising Bitcoin’s 2026 target to $150,000.

Is the Cycle Still Valid?

Other experts believe the cycle continues. Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, notes:

“Bitcoin entered a bear market in October 2025, pricing in a slowing economy.”

Rekt Capital says even if the cycle is “broken,” it may be just leveling up. Stock-to-Flow creator PlanB points out that selling pressure largely comes from 2021 veterans and traders expecting a post-halving bear market.

“Altcoins showed no excitement; cycles sometimes stretch. They haven’t ended—only expectations have shifted,” says Alex Wacy.

Global Crypto Reserves and Corporate Demand

By 2025, some countries officially created crypto reserves. Kyrgyzstan was among the first, and the U.S. supported the trend via a March 2025 executive order. Brazil’s Congress also advanced a bill allowing up to 5% of international reserves in Bitcoin.

“If more countries add Bitcoin to foreign exchange reserves, others may follow due to competitive pressure,” says Chris Kuiper, research VP at Fidelity Digital Assets.

Corporate demand is also rising. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and over 100 public companies now hold crypto, with 50 of them controlling around 1 million BTC.

“Some corporations can use market access to purchase Bitcoin—arbitrage opportunities supported by investment mandates and regulations,” Kuiper adds.

However, risks remain. Bear markets or forced corporate sales could put downward pressure on Bitcoin or other digital assets.

Why It Matters

Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, government reserves, and corporate adoption will shape market dynamics in 2026. Investors should monitor these factors when assessing price trends and risk.

2025 highlighted questions around Bitcoin’s traditional cycles and showed accelerating demand from nations and corporations. 2026 will test these new norms and risks.

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“The 4-Year Pattern Won’t Work This Time”

In his latest blog post, Hayes pointed out that many investors still expect Bitcoin to follow its historical four-year rhythm, predicting a market top based on previous bull cycles. However, he believes this approach is now outdated.

“As we approach the anniversary of this fourth cycle, traders are eager to apply the old pattern — but this time it will fail,” Hayes wrote.

According to Hayes, Bitcoin’s price cycles are shaped by the availability and flow of money — mainly the U.S. dollar (USD) and Chinese yuan (CNY) — rather than arbitrary timelines or institutional adoption phases.

He emphasized that past bull markets didn’t end because of time, but because monetary conditions tightened globally.

Why This Cycle Is Different

Hayes outlined several reasons why the current market cycle differs fundamentally from previous ones:

• U.S. Treasury liquidity boost: The Treasury has injected around $2.5 trillion into markets by drawing down funds from the Federal Reserve’s Reverse Repo (RRP) program.

• “Run it hot” economic policy: Former U.S. President Donald Trump aims to stimulate growth through looser monetary policies to manage national debt.

• Bank deregulation plans: The U.S. is preparing to ease restrictions on banks, encouraging more lending and credit expansion.

• Rate cuts despite inflation: Despite inflation still being above target, the Federal Reserve has resumed rate cuts. According to CME futures data, there’s a 94% probability of another cut in October and an 80% chance in December.

These factors, Hayes suggests, are combining to create a liquidity-rich environment — the perfect condition for Bitcoin’s continued rise.

What Really Drives Bitcoin’s Market Cycles

Hayes connects Bitcoin’s historical bull markets to three distinct periods of monetary expansion:

1. The first bull run (2013): Fueled by Federal Reserve quantitative easing and China’s credit boom, it ended when both economies began tightening liquidity.

2. The “ICO cycle” (2017): Driven by yuan devaluation and massive Chinese credit expansion, it collapsed once China slowed credit growth and the dollar strengthened.

3. The “COVID cycle” (2020–2021): Powered primarily by U.S. dollar liquidity while China remained conservative. The rally ended when the Fed turned hawkish in late 2021.

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Matthew Hougan, CIO of Bitwise Asset Management, offered a similar perspective. Hougan stated that it is still too early to declare the cycle over without positive returns by 2026. However, he believes the cycle will eventually end in the long term. Historically, BTC price peaks occurred in 2013, 2017, and 2021 after halving events. Analysts expect a similar scenario in 2025. 

Pierre Rochard, CEO of Bitcoin Bond Company, suggested the four-year cycles might have ended. Rochard pointed out that 95% of Bitcoin’s supply has already been mined. He also noted that the impact of halvings on trading volume has diminished. Demand now mainly comes from retail investors, wealth management platforms adding ETPs, and corporate treasuries. 

Macroeconomics and Institutional Capital Impact 

Martin Burgherr, Head of Client Coverage at Sygnum Bank, said the halving cycle remains an important reference. However, macroeconomic conditions, institutional capital flows, regulatory developments, and ETF adoption have become equally influential on the market. Burgherr emphasized that the four-year framework is no longer the sole determinant. 

In contrast, crypto analyst CRYPTOBIRB rejected claims that the four-year cycle has ended. He stated that ETFs increase market correlation, thus reinforcing this cycle. He also reminded that halving cycles are mathematically programmed and unchangeable. 

Seamus Rocca, CEO of Xapo Bank, similarly affirmed that the cycles still hold validity. Rocca said that despite institutional presence, Bitcoin’s cyclical nature continues. The debate is expected to become clearer with the anticipated price movements in 2025. 

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“Trust Data, Not Noise”

Onchained’s March 22 market report warns investors to be cautious:

“Trust data, not noise. Verify sources and cross-check onchain metrics.”

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

For instance, some narratives claim that Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) are capitulating. However, Inactive Supply Shift Index (ISSI) data indicates no meaningful selling pressure from these holders. Instead, structural demand continues to outpace supply.

4-Year Cycle Theory Under Fire

The long-debated Bitcoin 4-year cycle theory is now being questioned. MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe claims, “We can erase the entire 4-year cycle theory; Altcoins are in a longer cycle.”

Meanwhile, Bitwise Invest CIO Matt Hougan adds, “The traditional four-year cycle is over. Changes in DC signal a new decade-long cycle for crypto.”

Is the Bitcoin Bull Market Over?

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju believes so. In a March 17 post, he said, “Bitcoin bull cycle is over. Expect 6-12 months of bearish or sideways price action.”

Ju warns that onchain metrics point to a bear market, with fresh liquidity drying up and new whales selling Bitcoin at lower prices.

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Matt Hougan, the investment chief at Bitwise, suggests that President Donald Trump’s January 23 crypto executive order could disrupt the four-year boom and bust cycle that the crypto market has seen over the last decade.

With Trump’s sweeping order and changes at the Securities and Exchange Commission, Hougan noted that “Bitcoin has fully entered the mainstream,” and banks and Wall Street could “aggressively enter the space.”

Hougan also pointed out that crypto exchange-traded funds are “big enough” to attract billions from new investors. However, he believes Trump’s executive order to explore creating a digital asset stockpile and draft a regulatory framework will bring in “trillions.”

Related tweet:

Hougan Expects Shorter and Shallower Pullbacks for Bitcoin in 2026

Bitcoin has historically followed a four-year cycle, with losses seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022, but reaching new peaks in the three years between each pullback. If the cycle continues, the next pullback is expected in 2026.

Hougan stated that the industry will not “fully overcome” the four-year cycle, but he believes that “each pullback will be shorter and shallower than in previous years.”

“The crypto space has matured; there are more buyers and more value-oriented investors than ever before. I expect volatility, but I don’t think I would bet against crypto in 2026,” Hougan added.

Bankruptcies from companies like FTX, Three Arrows Capital, Genesis, BlockFi, and Celsius contributed to the 2022 market crash. Similarly, the SEC’s crackdown on token offerings and Mt. Gox’s collapse were two major catalysts behind pullbacks in previous cycles.

Hougan also noted that the full effect of Trump’s executive order will not be immediately visible, as White House crypto czar David Sacks will need time to craft a regulatory framework. Additionally, Wall Street “behemoths” will require more time to fully grasp crypto’s potential.

Following the SEC’s cancellation of its Staff Accounting Bulletin 121 rule, which previously required financial firms to record crypto holdings as liabilities on their balance sheets, Wall Street banks can now more easily custody crypto assets.

Hougan reiterated Bitwise’s Bitcoin price prediction of $200,000 by the end of 2025, stating that this could be achieved with or without a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

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