Trade Talks Boost Bitcoin and Market Sentiment

Following a record $19 billion liquidation event that triggered widespread panic, reports of a temporary tariff truce between Washington and Beijing have helped calm investor nerves. Market sentiment has shifted from “fear” to “neutral,” according to recent indicators, as hopes of de-escalation improve risk appetite across global markets.

A crucial meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled for Thursday, where both sides are expected to discuss a new framework aimed at preventing further trade tensions. Industry experts believe the outcome of the meeting could set the tone for both traditional and digital asset markets in the weeks ahead.

Wenny Cai, co-founder and COO of SynFutures, commented that the latest progress in US-China trade talks had “ignited a weekend rally in Bitcoin,” adding that optimism around the negotiations “has lifted overall risk sentiment.”

Trump Signals Confidence in Reaching a Deal

In remarks made aboard Air Force One on Monday, President Trump said he believed both nations would “come away with the deal,” fueling optimism across markets. Following his statement, Bitcoin reclaimed the short-term holder (STH) cost basis at approximately $114,000 — a key level for sustaining short-term momentum.

Analysts note that holding above this threshold is crucial for Bitcoin’s stability, as dips below it tend to trigger increased selling pressure from short-term investors. The recovery above this point suggests improving resilience in the market despite recent shocks.

Markets Eye the Upcoming Fed Decision

Attention is now turning to Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision, another major catalyst for risk assets. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a 96.7% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Expectations of lower borrowing costs are fueling demand for risk-on assets, including cryptocurrencies. Many investors anticipate that a combination of monetary easing and easing trade tensions could pave the way for a broader market recovery.

A Renewed Sense of Stability for Bitcoin

Earlier this month, Trump’s announcement of a potential 100% tariff on Chinese imports — set to take effect on November 1 — triggered a sharp sell-off, sending Bitcoin briefly below $105,000. However, recent signs of diplomatic progress and dovish monetary expectations have helped stabilize market conditions.

Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim key technical levels amid improving macroeconomic sentiment highlights the asset’s growing maturity. If Thursday’s talks result in a concrete agreement, analysts believe Bitcoin could extend its rebound and strengthen its position as a global hedge against economic uncertainty.

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The Power of Mathematical Scarcity

Dorsey emphasizes that Bitcoin’s growth isn’t fueled by speculation but by its inherent mathematics. With a fixed supply capped at 21 million coins, Bitcoin’s scarcity drives demand. This structure underpins its value, making it a compelling choice for companies. Dorsey notes that traditional US savings accounts offer a mere 0.5% interest while 3% inflation erodes cash value.

In contrast, Bitcoin has outperformed gold, stocks, and real estate over the past decade. Data from Fidelity Digital Assets shows Bitcoin’s risk-adjusted returns from 2020 to 2025 surpassed most traditional assets, reinforcing its appeal as a corporate treasury asset.

Bitcoin as the New Digital Gold

Dorsey likens Bitcoin to gold, describing it as a digital store of value. While gold boasts a $13 trillion market cap, Bitcoin’s has exceeded $2.5 trillion. Post-2024 halving, Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow ratio rivals gold’s, cementing its status as a scarce asset and a hedge against economic uncertainty.

A Shield Against Dollar Devaluation

Dorsey highlights Bitcoin’s role as a safeguard against the US dollar’s declining purchasing power, which has dropped roughly 20% since 2009, per Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Major firms like MicroStrategy, Tesla, and Block hold billions in Bitcoin reserves, with MicroStrategy alone owning 190,000 BTC, valued at approximately $19 billion. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF holds over 300,000 BTC, signaling growing corporate trust in Bitcoin as a financial shield, according to Dorsey.

Market Trends and Adoption Surge

Per CoinGecko, Bitcoin trades near $100,000 with a daily volume of about $50 billion. It boasts over 500 million users worldwide and is accepted by more than 1,000 businesses. The SEC’s approval of Bitcoin ETFs in July 2025 fueled institutional adoption, reducing volatility from 100% in 2017 to 40% in 2025.

Critics argue that 30-40% monthly price swings undermine Bitcoin’s reliability as a savings vehicle. Yet, Dorsey focuses on long-term trends, dismissing short-term noise and regulatory hurdles, like India’s 30% crypto gains tax, as Bitcoin’s global adoption and historical post-halving rallies point to continued growth.

This content is not investment advice.

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Funds Lead Weekly Gains!

Fidelity’s FBTC, Ark Invest’s ARKB, and Bitwise’s BTB funds saw record inflows. They raised $622.3 million, $219 million, and $187.9 million, respectively. There was intense interest in ETFs. The Bitcoin price surpassed $120,000 for the first time since August.

BRN Research Director Timothy Misir stated that October is historically a strong period for Bitcoin. Misir also added that a similar upward trend has been observed this year.

You May Be Interested In: Bitcoin ETF: Trillion-Dollar Funds in Play

It was noteworthy that the IBIT ETF alone accounted for $4.3 billion of the total $5.6 billion in ETF trading on Thursday. Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas said that IBIT ranks among the top 10 ETFs in terms of daily volume, alongside major ETFs like SPY, QQQ, and GLD. Additionally, it has entered the top 20 ETFs in terms of assets under management at BlackRock ETF for the first time. IBIT has emerged as a clear leader in the market this week.

Institutional Interest Boosts “Uptober” Momentum!

Bitcoin‘s rise occurred despite the potential shutdown of the US government and a sharp decline in employment. Analysts attribute the strong interest in ETFs and Bitcoin’s rise to the “Uptober” momentum. Institutional investors’ shift toward the crypto market continues to grow. Since January 2024, cumulative inflows into U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have reached approximately $60 billion. “Uptober” stands out as a historically strong month for Bitcoin.

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Trillions of Dollars Changing Hands

Over the next decade, trillions of dollars will move from the baby boomer generation to younger heirs. In the U.S. alone, an estimated $10.6 trillion will be transferred by 2030, with even more expected in Europe and Asia.

Xapo Bank notes that this new generation has a much stronger interest in digital assets than their parents, paving the way for bitcoin to become a central part of inherited wealth.

Potential $200 Billion Inflow Into Bitcoin

Bank analysts estimate that this generational transfer could funnel between $160 billion and $225 billion into Bitcoin over the next 20 years. This would create an additional $20 million to $28 million in daily demand.

The report emphasizes Bitcoin’s limited supply, decentralized structure, and potential as an inflation hedge, making it a compelling store of value for the next generation.

Crypto Inheritance: Challenges and Solutions

Inheriting cryptocurrency is far more complex than taking over a traditional brokerage account. Lost private keys, unregulated exchanges, and inconsistent legal frameworks pose significant risks.

To address these challenges, Gibraltar-based Xapo Bank has launched its “Bitcoin Beneficiaries” program, offering secure custody, legally recognized transfer methods, and regulatory clarity to ensure smooth inheritance for heirs.

The bank reports that its wealthiest clients are already using the service, demonstrating that sophisticated investors view digital inheritance planning as essential for preserving their crypto legacies.

Bitcoin Strategy for the Next Generation

According to Xapo, inheritance planning for Bitcoin holders is no longer optional—it is a necessity. Without proper planning, investors risk losing the ability to pass on their digital wealth to future generations.

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Bitcoin Surges to $108,000

The standout move of the day comes from Bitcoin, which has climbed 1.82% in the past 24 hours, pushing past the $108,000 mark.

However, analysts warn that this rally may be short-lived. Susannah Streeter, head of money markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, noted: “While the ceasefire has lifted market mood, uncertainty remains over how long this fragile peace will last.”

Leaked U.S. intelligence reports suggest that recent American strikes failed to significantly damage Tehran’s nuclear infrastructure — a factor that could reignite geopolitical tensions.

Powell’s Cautious Tone Provides Additional Relief

It’s not just the ceasefire that’s driving investor appetite. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in his testimony before Congress, emphasized a patient approach toward potential rate cuts. He acknowledged that inflation remains elevated and could face further pressure from rising tariffs in the coming months.

According to analysts at Bitunix, Powell’s “wait-and-see” message brings clarity amid policy uncertainty. While not signaling immediate action, it reassures markets that risk assets still have breathing room. Investors are now closely watching upcoming inflation reports and trade developments.

On the other hand, the Nasdaq 100 index rose by 0.48%, reaching an all-time high of 22,296.53 points.

Data Increases Odds of July Rate Cut

Soft U.S. consumer confidence data pushed two-year Treasury yields down to a six-week low of 3.78%. Based on CME’s FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut in July has climbed to 20%, up from just 13% a week ago. On Polymarket, traders currently price an 18% chance of a cut.

Later today, Powell is scheduled to appear before the Senate, in a hearing that could shape short-term market sentiment. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has intensified pressure on the Fed, publicly stating that interest rates should be “at least two to three points lower.”

Options Market: Calm Yet Cautious

Crypto derivatives desks remain neutral ahead of the June 27 expiry. Jake O, an OTC trader at Wintermute, reported that traders are positioning with straddles and short puts around the $105,000 and $100,000 levels, suggesting expectations of limited short-term movement.

Still, the purchase of call options targeting $108,000 and $112,000 for July and September reveals an underlying bullish bias, indicating some confidence in further upside.

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This calm price action reflects the lingering uncertainty following the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged. The Fed’s cautious tone and focus on inflation are weighing on short-term investor sentiment.

Is Seasonal Strength for Bitcoin Kicking In?

Historically, June and July tend to be quieter months for the crypto market—and 2025 appears no different so far. Singapore-based QCP Capital noted that Bitcoin’s short-term implied volatility has dipped below 40%, effectively erasing the risk premium tied to recent geopolitical tensions.

Options markets are showing a tilt toward protective strategies, with put options trading at higher premiums than calls. This suggests investors are hedging against potential short-term pullbacks.

Bullish Structure Still Intact for Bitcoin

Joel Kruger, strategist at LMAX Group, highlighted that the broader technical picture remains favorable:

“Bitcoin continues to consolidate in a bullish manner. A breakout above resistance levels could trigger a move toward the $145,000 region.”

He also noted that Ethereum is showing signs of strength. A breakout above $2,900 could pave the way for a push toward $3,400.

Regulatory Progress Brings Institutional Confidence

In a positive development for the crypto space, the U.S. Senate passed a bill to regulate stablecoins, signaling a shift toward clearer legislation. This is seen as a key step toward greater institutional involvement.

“Globally, we’re witnessing regulatory momentum that could accelerate crypto adoption,” Kruger added.

Range-Bound in the Short Term, But Optimism Builds for H2

For now, Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound between $102,000 and $108,000 due to end-of-month options expiries and systematic portfolio rebalancing.

Still, historical patterns suggest that the second half of the year tends to favor stronger performance in digital assets.

“The worst might be behind us,” said Kruger. “The next rally could catch a lot of investors off guard.”

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Surging Demand for $110K Strike Options

In a recent update shared on X, Deribit highlighted strong buying activity in call options at the $110,000 strike set to expire in June and July. Additionally, there has been notable interest in calendar spread strategies, involving long positions on $140,000 strike calls maturing in late September and short positions on $170,000 calls expiring by the end of the year.

Such flows suggest that investors are anticipating further gains for BTC in the weeks ahead. Call options give the holder the right to purchase the asset at a fixed price before a certain date, and are generally viewed as a bullish bet on the market.

Expiry Rollovers Show Continued Confidence

Deribit also noted a rollover of long positions from May expirations to July expirations, particularly around the $110,000 to $115,000 strike levels. This shift in positioning reflects an expectation of extended upside potential into the summer.

Is a BTC and ETH Breakout Brewing?

Bitcoin climbed above $104,000 on Thursday, marking a nearly 40% rebound from early April lows below $75,000. The rally has been fueled by positive sentiment around the U.S.-U.K. trade agreement and continued inflows into spot ETFs. Technical indicators continue to support a bullish outlook.

Meanwhile, Ethereum’s native token Ether (ETH) has jumped over 30% in just two days, reaching $2,411. The move is being interpreted as a bullish breakout on technical charts. On Deribit, there’s increasing demand for June expiry calls at the $2,400 level, as well as longer-dated call spreads targeting the $2,600–$2,800 range.

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Bitcoin Prices Fluctuate with the Election Wind

While the US election process has caused serious fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin, there are several important reasons for this movement. First of all, with the increase in uncertainty before the election in the US, investors’ search for a safe haven comes to the fore. After Bitcoin hit $70,000 just hours before the election results, it has now increased by 2.4 percent in the last 24 hours and is currently trading at $69,700.

Bitcoin Prices Fluctuate with the Election Wind

While the US election process has caused significant fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin, there are several important reasons for this movement. First of all, with the increasing uncertainty before the election in the US, investors are looking for a safe haven. After Bitcoin hit $70,000 just hours before the election results, it has now risen by 2.4 percent in the last 24 hours and is trading at $69,700.

In addition, the possible economic policies and regulatory approaches of the US government contain important clues for the future of the crypto market. In particular, the moves to be made regarding the regulation of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are of great importance for the long-term direction of the market. With a new administration, crypto regulations may be tightened or incentives for the crypto market may increase; this is seen as a factor that can determine the direction of the Bitcoin price.

Investors Are Alert to Volatility

Investors who expect high volatility during and after the election process are cautious against sudden price movements. Analysts state that the impact of the election result on the market will not be instantaneous, but will manifest itself in the form of long-term fluctuations. While sudden increases and decreases in cryptocurrencies, especially in an environment of uncertainty, direct investors to short-term buy-sell transactions, long-term investors evaluate these fluctuations as opportunities.

Increase in Liquidity in the Cryptocurrency Market

The uncertainty created by the US elections is causing an increase in liquidity in cryptocurrency markets. In addition to Bitcoin, there is an increase in trading volume in other leading digital assets such as Ethereum and Ripple. Experts state that the increase in liquidity is a result of investors’ search for diversification of their portfolios. While high trading volume fuels price volatility, this can also cause sudden jumps in Bitcoin’s price.

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Possible Scenarios for Bitcoin After the Election

The impact of the election results on the price of Bitcoin will depend on the policies that the US administration will implement after the election. Economic stimulus packages and interest rate policies can determine the long-term course of cryptocurrencies. In particular, moves towards controlling inflation and the value of the dollar can increase interest in digital assets with limited supply such as Bitcoin.

Another scenario is that Bitcoin will be adopted by more institutional investors. Economic policies that will emerge as a result of the US elections may affect the decisions of institutional firms to add assets such as Bitcoin to their portfolios. Bitcoin’s price heading towards a new peak after the election can be supported by such developments.

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1. BTC Price Struggle at Old Resistance Levels

Bitcoin, which rose to $73,500 last week, disappointed investors by falling below $67,500 over the weekend. BTC/USD, although experiencing a slight recovery, quickly lost momentum. Volatility is expected to be inevitable with the approaching US presidential elections.

Popular trader Skew analyzed the liquidity zones in the market, stating that there is buying liquidity and depth at $67,000-$65,000, and selling liquidity above $73,000. “The large order book between $66,000 and $73,000 could impact liquidity and volatility,” Skew said, predicting that it could move quickly between these levels.

2. Fed Rate Decision: Another Volatility Effect After the Election

The Fed rate decision, which will come right after the US presidential election, will be another major catalyst for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. A Fed rate cut could potentially lead to a price increase for Bitcoin. However, if interest rates are not held steady or increased, market reactions could be more complex.

3. Bitcoin Dominance Rate at its Peak

Bitcoin’s market dominance has reached its highest level in three and a half years. This suggests that BTC is dominating the crypto market in terms of market value, with altcoins lagging behind. The high dominance rate indicates that investors are becoming more confident in Bitcoin as a mainstream crypto asset.

4. Bitcoin Network Fundamentals Reach New Highs

This week, fundamental indicators on the Bitcoin network are about to reach new highs. Indicators such as hash rate and mining difficulty in particular indicate that the network’s security and strength are increasing. This is a factor that further strengthens Bitcoin’s fundamental structural strength and supports its long-term price stability.

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5. Election Results Could Be a “Sell the News” Event

With the election results becoming clear, many analysts are drawing attention to the “sell the news” event. In such events, investors may sell when the expected big news occurs, which can cause a drop in price. However, the Fed’s interest rate decision following the election results could increase volatility after the sale, leading to short-term price movements.

With these developments, an eventful week is expected for Bitcoin, and especially the liquidity levels between $66,000 and $73,000 stand out as areas where price fluctuations may intensify.

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Trump and Harris’ Approach: Market Expectations and Bitcoin

Many expect Bitcoin to surge if Trump is elected president. His discussion of adding BTC to the US reserves and his crypto-friendly approach have created a positive atmosphere in the market. Trump aims to make the US a hub for digital finance by reducing regulatory barriers to crypto innovation. Harris, on the other hand, is expected to take a more cautious approach if elected. While Harris has not made any direct promises to crypto, he does care about user protection and preventing financial crime. Harris’ supporters are in favor of regulations that promote transparency in the crypto market.

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Regardless of the outcome, more comprehensive and positive crypto regulations are expected by 2025. Creating transparent and crypto-friendly regulatory frameworks will be a critical factor for Bitcoin’s future.

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