According to Santiment, if large investors sell while retail buys, the market correction is not yet complete.

Iran Sell-Off Wave and Whale Strategy

During last week’s Iran-driven sell-off, whales aggressively accumulated Bitcoin. When the price reached $74,000, the same wallets started taking profits. Retail investors, however, bought around $70,000 hoping for a recovery. Santiment data shows that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC accumulated heavily between February 23 and March 3, then began selling at $74,000. This is regarded as a classic signal of the whale-retail divergence.

The accumulation by 10–10,000 BTC wallets triggered the $74,000 rally, while their distribution caused the current decline. This group is currently the most reliable signal source for short-term price direction.

Why is Bitcoin Dropping?

The current retracement in the market is driven by profit-taking from large wallets (whales) and retail investors buying as a contrarian indicator, deepening the supply-demand imbalance. The Fear & Greed Index falling to 12 indicates investor psychology trapped in “extreme fear.”

Bitcoin Supply and Selling Pressure

Glassnode data clarifies the situation further. About 43% of Bitcoin supply is still at a loss, and every rally is met with selling from investors aiming to break even. The $74,000 surge also hit a supply wall; whales took profits, while retail investors waited for the price to stabilize. When Bitcoin reached its local top, transactions over $1 million spiked significantly. Whale activity during rallies signals profit-taking; during dips, it indicates accumulation.

Even though the market shows strong weekly movement, monthly progress remains limited. Bitcoin reached $60,000 on February 6, $74,000 on March 5, and now hovers around $68,000, the level from about three weeks ago. Each rally is met with position closing, and each drop with recovery attempts, keeping net movement almost zero.

Market Crossroads

This dynamic can resolve in two ways. Either selling pressure exhausts, excess supply is absorbed, and Bitcoin rises above $74,000. Or buying pressure fades, retail capital is depleted, and the $60,000 floor is truly tested. Weekly whale movements indicate that major investors are leaning toward the second scenario.

Is a $60,000 Test Coming?

Bitcoin’s direction will be shaped by the whale-retail conflict and market sentiment. Volatility is high, prices are testing psychological levels, and the risk-reward balance for investors is delicate. If selling pressure persists, the drop could accelerate; if buying pressure strengthens, recovery could be more sustainable.

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Why Are Whales Moving?

Exchange deposits from addresses holding at least 1,000 BTC have intensified. This is rarely random. Historically, when large holders move assets to exchanges, it often signals preparation to sell, increasing immediate liquidity pressure.

What stands out is persistence. The activity is not isolated. Wallet age, transaction frequency, and historical behavior patterns suggest this is not routine portfolio rebalancing but a cautious repositioning. Markets tend to price in such behavior quickly. And price often follows.

ETF Side: A Quiet Capital Rotation?

After strong inflows following ETF approvals in 2024, spot Bitcoin ETFs are now posting net outflows of $2.6 billion for the year. That shift suggests traditional finance participants are reducing exposure.

Over the past 72 hours, broader capital rotation has been visible across risk assets, with flows moving toward gold and cash equivalents. Bitcoin appears caught in that rotation. When institutional demand weakens while whale-driven supply increases, short-term balance tilts downward.

Derivatives Desk: Put Premiums Rising

In options markets, put skew has become more pronounced. Downside protection is trading at a premium relative to calls, signaling growing hedging activity among professional traders.

Open interest (OI) is concentrated in specific downside strikes, while implied volatility trends upward. This combination frequently precedes increased spot pressure — not always immediately, but often within short timeframes.

Technical Levels: Between $78,000 and $53,000

Bitfinex Alpha identifies $78,000 as a key resistance level and $53,000 as a major psychological and structural support zone near realized price levels.

A sustained move above $78,000 would require significant new capital inflows — something current flow data does not yet confirm. A breakdown below $53,000, however, could accelerate liquidations and margin unwinds. Volume structure and lower-high patterns continue to reflect a fragile trend.

Key Data Snapshot

The core metrics are aligned:

64% of exchange inflows originate from large holders. Spot Bitcoin ETFs show -$2.6 billion in net flows year-to-date. Put demand is increasing in options markets. $78,000 stands as resistance, while $53,000 remains a critical support zone.

Conclusion

Multiple datasets are telling the same story: rising supply from whales, institutional outflows, and increased hedging activity. Until ETF inflows resume and whale exchange transfers slow meaningfully, downside risks remain present.

Market participants continue to monitor exchange flow reversals and derivatives positioning closely. For now, the data suggests caution.

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The timing of the transfer is closely monitored, as it coincides with a renewed increase in market volatility. On-chain data suggests the whale could realize an unrealized profit of roughly $30.4 million from this move.

The transaction was confirmed through data shared by on-chain analytics platform Onchain Lens.

From Eight Years of Silence to OKX

An examination of the wallet’s transaction history shows that the whale’s last activity occurred nearly eight years ago. At the time, the total acquisition cost of the 400 BTC was approximately $4 million.

The holdings entered the wallet through two separate inflows of 200 BTC each, previously transferred from HTX. After years of inactivity, the entire balance was moved in a single transaction to an address associated with OKX. The transfer reportedly took place around 11 hours before it was publicly identified, raising speculation about a potential sell-side move.

What remains clear is that this marks the first time the whale has sent its long-term Bitcoin holdings directly to an exchange.

Why it matters

The reactivation of long-dormant wallets is widely viewed as a critical signal for market psychology. Transfers directly to exchanges often increase the probability of short-term liquidity expansion and selling pressure. While such moves do not always result in immediate sales, they tend to influence trader sentiment and risk appetite.

In addition, the stark contrast between the original cost basis and current valuation once again highlights Bitcoin’s long-term return profile through tangible on-chain data.

Dormant Whales Return Simultaneously

This development is not an isolated case. In recent days, several other previously inactive large holders have also re-entered the market.

A Bitcoin wallet dormant for nearly three years transferred 200 BTC to Binance, while another large investor withdrew 171 BTC from the same exchange. These opposing flows suggest that selling and accumulation strategies are unfolding simultaneously.

Rather than signaling panic, the data points toward a phase dominated by strategic portfolio repositioning.

Short Positions Add to Market Pressure

On-chain metrics also indicate that some large investors are increasing short exposure alongside spot selling. Recent reports show one whale offloading 255 BTC while expanding short positions across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana.

Since early December, large holders have sold approximately 36,500 BTC, representing a market value exceeding $3.3 billion. This activity, following recent sharp market swings, suggests that price discovery remains incomplete.

As uncertainty persists, further movements from large wallets are likely to remain a key factor shaping short-term market direction.

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