On-Chain Metrics Signal a “Neutral Zone”

Several core indicators — including Long-Term Holder (LTH) profitability, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), and the percentage of supply in profit — remain stuck in what could be described as an intermediate zone.

Historically, definitive bear market bottoms have occurred when long-term holders were sitting on losses of roughly 30% to 40%. Recent data shows that long-term holder profits have fallen sharply from 142% in October to around breakeven levels. While this marks a significant compression in profitability, it does not yet reflect the type of forced capitulation seen at prior cycle lows.

Similarly, the MVRV Z-score has not yet entered the traditional oversold range of -0.4 to -0.7 that has marked historical bottoms. NUPL currently stands near 0.1, whereas previous cycle lows tended to form when investors were experiencing approximately 20% unrealized losses on average.

Macro Pressures Still in Play

Beyond blockchain data, macroeconomic headwinds continue to weigh on risk assets. Liquidity conditions remain tight, and Bitcoin has been highly sensitive to economic releases. After stronger-than-expected employment data, markets are now closely watching January inflation figures. An upside surprise could reinforce expectations of prolonged restrictive monetary policy, adding further pressure to digital assets.

Some traditional financial institutions have projected a potential short-term pullback toward the $50,000–$58,000 range, underscoring lingering downside risks.

Panic Selling or Early Bottom Formation?

Not all signals are bearish. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index recently plunged to 11 out of 100, indicating extreme fear — levels often associated with seller exhaustion.

Last week, Bitcoin briefly tested the psychological $60,000 support before staging a rapid 19% rebound within 24 hours. During that period, 66,940 BTC flowed into accumulation addresses in a single day, suggesting institutional players actively defended the $60,000–$62,000 zone.

Meanwhile, with the MVRV Z-score at 1.2 and Bitcoin trading near its realized cost basis of approximately $55,000, the probability of a sustained breakdown below that level may be limited.

Overall, while definitive bottom signals have yet to emerge, growing signs of stabilization indicate that the market may be in the process of building a foundation. Clear confirmation, however, will likely require stronger alignment between on-chain metrics and macroeconomic conditions.

This content is not investment advice.

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PlanB: Mid-Cycle Pause, Not the Final Top

PlanB, the analyst known for the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, views the recent correction as a natural breather within a larger bull cycle. He highlights that Bitcoin has remained above $100,000 for six consecutive months — a sign that the market has transitioned from treating this level as resistance to regarding it as a firm support zone.

Momentum indicators support this idea. With the RSI hovering near 66, Bitcoin is far from the euphoric 80+ readings typically seen at major market tops. Based on his model projections, PlanB suggests that the next major upward phase could lift prices into the $250,000–$500,000 range, assuming Bitcoin continues to diverge from its realized price — a common feature of strong bull markets.

Arthur Hayes: Liquidity Tightness Before a Coming “Stealth QE”

Arthur Hayes attributes Bitcoin’s short-term weakness to contracting U.S. dollar liquidity. Since the summer’s debt ceiling resolution, the Treasury General Account (TGA) has expanded, pulling significant liquidity out of financial markets.

However, Hayes expects this trend to reverse once the government reopens and begins deploying funds more aggressively. This would reduce the TGA balance and inject liquidity back into the system. He argues that the Federal Reserve’s involvement — particularly through the Standing Repo Facility — will amount to balance-sheet expansion without being formally labeled quantitative easing. According to Hayes, this discreet liquidity boost could be the next catalyst for Bitcoin.

Raoul Pal: A Major Upswing in Global Liquidity Is Near

Macro strategist Raoul Pal points to the long-term uptrend in his Global Macro Investor (GMI) Liquidity Index as evidence that the broader liquidity cycle remains intact. In his view, markets are currently in a “Window of Pain,” marked by tight conditions that challenge investor conviction.

Pal expects a decisive turnaround as U.S. Treasury spending injects an estimated $250–350 billion into markets, quantitative tightening winds down, and interest rate cuts begin. He notes that when global liquidity rises — across the U.S., China, Japan, and elsewhere — risk assets tend to move higher in unison.

Large Holders Accumulate as Retail Sentiment Weakens

On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that major Bitcoin holders — addresses with between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC — accumulated roughly 29,600 BTC in the past week, an amount valued at about $3 billion. Their combined holdings have climbed to 3.504 million BTC, marking the first significant accumulation wave since September.

What makes this trend more notable is that it occurred during a period of sharp sentiment deterioration among retail investors and $2 billion in ETF outflows. Analysts interpret this divergence as evidence that institutional players are strengthening the support zone around $100,000, positioning for the next macro-driven expansion.

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