Alongside this move, a notable rebound appeared in the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index, which tracks US-based demand. However, this shift points more to selective purchases near lows than to a broad increase in risk appetite.

What Does the Coinbase Premium Index Show?

The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index — tracking the difference between Coinbase prices and the global average — had dropped to roughly -0.22% at the peak of the sell-off. By Tuesday, it had recovered to around -0.05%.

The index is still in negative territory. But the reversal is significant.

This suggests that, as forced selling eased, US-based investors saw an opportunity to buy the dip. Coinbase is widely regarded as a proxy for institutional and dollar-denominated fund flows. Deep negative premiums usually indicate either aggressive selling by US investors or complete inactivity. A return toward neutral, particularly after one of Bitcoin’s fastest drops since the FTX collapse in 2022, shows some buyers found value at lower levels.

Yet, the critical threshold has not been breached.

The premium has not reached positive territory. Historically, this level aligns with sustainable accumulation among US funds and renewed risk appetite. The current pattern, however, signals selective buying rather than broad-based participation.

Where Will Bitcoin Bottom? Key Levels

Key Developments Behind Bitcoin’s Latest Rebound

• Coinbase Premium Rebounds: The index rose from -0.22% to -0.05%, showing US investors shifted from selling pressure to buying.

• Fear Index Turns From Lows: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 6 over the weekend, touching levels seen in the 2022 FTX crash. By late Monday, it rose to 14, but the market remains jittery.

• Liquidity Remains Thin: Trading volumes are far below late-2025 peaks, meaning price moves can spike sharply but lack support.

Where Will Bitcoin Bottom? Levels Analysts Are Watching

Low Volumes, Weak Liquidity

Market structure data supports this cautious interpretation. According to Kaiko, total trading volumes on major exchanges remain far below late-2025 highs. Spot market activity indicates gradual slowdown rather than a surge in demand.

Thin liquidity can create sharp price spikes once selling pressure subsides. But if buyers fail to follow through, the market remains vulnerable to renewed downward moves.

Bitcoin has recovered over 15% from intraday lows and is now trading just below $70,000. Yet weekly losses remain in double digits.

Sentiment Remains Fragile

Investor psychology reflects a similar picture. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 6 over the weekend — near 2022 FTX crash lows — and rose to 14 by late Monday, still signaling excessive fear.

In short: the market has recovered slightly but not fully eased.

Overall, US-based buyers appear to have stepped in on the dip. The Coinbase Premium rebound confirms this. Yet, low volumes, thin liquidity, and a premium still in negative territory prevent us from calling it a broad-based demand wave.

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The sharp selloff began around 7:20 p.m. ET, when BTC briefly touched $60,000 before rebounding toward $64,100. Volatility remains elevated. Ethereum followed the broader market lower, sliding to $1,750 before stabilizing near $1,899 at the time of writing.

$2.67 Billion in Liquidations Wipe Out Overleveraged Positions

The sudden downturn triggered a massive liquidation cascade across derivatives markets.

Over the past four hours alone, combined long and short liquidations reached $817 million. Total liquidations over the last 24 hours climbed to $2.67 billion — with $2.31 billion coming from long positions, highlighting how heavily bullish traders were positioned.

CMC’s Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 5, signaling “extreme fear,” its lowest reading since the index launched in June 2023.

“A Classic Leverage Unwind”

According to Vincent Liu, CIO at Kronos Research, the crash reflects a perfect storm:

“Bitcoin’s sharp drop looks like forced liquidations from overleveraged longs, ETF and institutional outflows, and a broader risk-off macro backdrop. This is a classic leverage unwind — violent, fast, and sentiment-driven.”

Liu also noted that Bitcoin’s capitulation metric just printed its second-largest spike in two years, pointing to a surge in forced selling.

BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas emphasized the psychological shift among traders:

“Sentiment is firmly risk-off. Traders are no longer trying to catch falling knives and are prioritizing capital preservation. You can see rallies being sold into, and volume fading once liquidation flows subside.”

Repeated failures to hold key support levels have pushed participants from dip-buying into wait-and-see mode — reinforcing downward momentum.

ETF Outflows Signal Short-Term Reset

Institutional investors are also pulling back. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded more than $800 million in net outflows across Tuesday and Wednesday alone.

Lucas believes long-term conviction hasn’t vanished, but short-term positioning has clearly reset:

“Historically, these phases shake out weaker hands while longer-term holders remain relatively intact. Conviction isn’t gone — it’s being tested.”

Critical Support Zone: $58,000–$60,000

Liu says Bitcoin must hold the $58,000–$60,000 range for any meaningful recovery attempt.

“A rebound could start with price stabilization and positive catalysts,” he added, “but confirmation will take time once the dust settles.”

Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index in global markets slipped to 9, echoing sentiment levels last seen during the Terra collapse in June 2022.

Bitcoin is currently trading near $65,769, but damage remains heavy. BTC has fallen roughly 38% in just three weeks from its 2026 peak near $97,000, effectively erasing nearly all gains from the past 16 months.

For now, the market is operating in survival mode rather than accumulation mode. Support levels are breaking, patience is rising, and risk appetite is fading — leaving traders with one pressing question: is this the bottom, or just another pause on the way down?

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The post Bitcoin Crashes to $60K as Extreme Fear Hits Crypto appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Weak Hands and Price Pressure

Over the past year, investors who purchased Bitcoin at higher costs closed positions at a loss as the price fell below the psychological $100,000 mark. Especially for holders in the 3–12 month range, this has been a real test. At this point, weak hands were liquidated while the market searched for a new support around $85,000–$90,000.

BTC prices briefly dropped to $87,700, while altcoins suffered even heavier losses; Ethereum fell over 5% in a single day. The pressure was not limited to spot markets; leveraged positions were also hit, with over $360 million in long positions liquidated. For traders using leverage, this represented a critical juncture.

Liquidity and Macroeconomic Pressures

The decline in stablecoin reserves on exchanges has constrained buying appetite, making short-term recovery more challenging. Institutional investors remain cautious, and the Federal Reserve’s liquidity policies, combined with geopolitical uncertainty, reinforce this stance.

The drop in the BTC/Gold ratio shows investors moving toward safe-haven assets. According to CryptoQuant’s Quicktake report, fear levels remain elevated. Selling pressure is evident in both spot and derivatives markets, complicating consolidation. Furthermore, the funding uncertainty and political deadlock fueling the potential U.S. government shutdown have added pressure to risky assets, and cryptocurrency is no exception. Polymarket indicates that the probability of this event has risen to 75%, keeping investors cautious.

Short-Term Technical Outlook

Bitcoin broke below the $86,800 support level, closing the day beneath it. Currently, a short-term rebound is in progress, but another downward leg is likely after some upward movement.

The initial target for this rebound is between $91,750–$93,450. Capturing this zone is important, though the market’s weakness makes it a challenging task. Meanwhile, the first major support for a potential reversal lies around $83,760–$84,630. If the price touches this zone, the resulting reaction will indicate whether a reversal is underway. For now, the main trend remains bearish, and there is no fundamental reason to support an upward move.

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Why It Matters
The decline in LTH supply increases market sensitivity to short-term selling pressure and directly influences investor behavior.

Bitcoin LTH Supply Changes

According to Glassnode, long-term holders decreased their Bitcoin holdings from 14.8 million BTC in mid-July to 14.3 million BTC in December. This reduced the percentage of supply held by these investors to 71.92%, a level last seen in April. At that time, Bitcoin fell from its $109,000 all-time high to $74,000. LTHs increased their supply to 76% at lower prices in July, driving a 65% rally to $123,000.

CryptoQuant data shows that on a 30-day rolling basis, supply fell by 1.1 million BTC on November 26, the second-largest drop on record. Over the last 30 days, LTH supply decreased by 761,000 coins, while whales sold $2.78 billion in BTC, keeping downward pressure in place.

Bitcoin Outperforms Altcoins Over Past Three Months

What Is LTH Supply?

“LTH supply” refers to the total amount of coins held by long-term holders (LTH) and their share of total circulating supply.

• LTH (Long-Term Holder): Someone or a wallet holding crypto for at least 155 days.

• Supply: Total coins in circulation.

Example:

• Bitcoin total supply: 21 million BTC

• LTH holdings: 15 million BTC → LTH supply = 71.4%

The chart below, based on Capriole Investments data, illustrates this decline.

Could BTC Fall Below $70,000?

Bitcoin’s technical structure weakened after losing the 50-week moving average and the yearly open at $93,300. BTC/USD confirmed a bear flag below $92,000. Key support lies between $83,800 and $80,500. Breaking this zone could trigger a drop toward $68,500, with the 200-week MA providing support.

Bitcoin price movements were analyzed by our Coinmühendisi analyst. Bitcoin failed to break the $90,500 resistance and retreated to its support area. The current demand zone is 3.5% wide, with possible pullback to $83,800. A safe recovery would require price to surpass $90,500. Short-term traders can reduce risk by following bullish breakouts on lower timeframes.

Behavioral Analysis

LTH selling indicates rising investor fear and weakening market sentiment. This strengthens short-term selling pressure while creating potential dip-buying opportunities for strategic investors.

Summary List:

• LTH supply dropped to 71.92%, April levels

• 761,000 BTC exited LTH wallets in 30 days

• Whales sold $2.78B BTC in last 30 days

• Key support: $83,800 and $80,500

• Potential downside target: $68,500

This content is based solely on market data, on-chain analysis, and technical indicators. It is not investment advice. Investment decisions should be made based on your own research and risk management strategies.

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This trend raises questions for investors about BTC expectations as the year-end approaches. November 2025 ranks among the weakest periods on record. Historical data suggests that a red November often leads to continued pressure in December, though the decline is usually milder.

Why BTC Price Disappointed Bulls

Bitcoin has fallen 36% from its all-time highs, shaking the confidence of bullish investors. Network economist Timothy Peterson noted on Twitter (X) that BTC’s second-half 2025 performance almost entirely mirrors 2022.

Commenting on November’s performance, Peterson wrote, “It feels bad because it is bad.” His words summarize why investors remain cautious amid short-term volatility.

Institutional Investors Return to Crypto

Meanwhile, rising risk appetite and institutional interest indicate potential year-end market recovery. According to Bloomberg and JPMorgan data, U.S. equity funds have received $900 billion in new capital since November 2024, with $450 billion added in the last five months alone.

By contrast, other asset classes have only seen $100 billion inflows. This demonstrates that equities have attracted more capital than all other asset classes combined.

Crypto ETFs Boost Investor Sentiment

Bitcoin and Ether ETFs indicate that the peak of institutional crypto sell-offs may be behind us. During Thanksgiving week, BTC ETFs recorded $220 million in inflows, while Ether ETFs added $312 million. These figures signal renewed investor interest in digital assets.

Experts suggest that BTC may not experience a true price rebound until Q1 2026. However, the growing appetite for risk assets and ETF inflows provide hope for a potential year-end “Santa rally.”

History Repeats, But Investors Should Be Prepared

As 2025 draws to a close, Bitcoin mirrors the previous bear market trend. Weak performance in November may extend into December, albeit with a lighter decline. Institutional capital and ETF inflows could provide positive momentum, making preparation for short-term volatility crucial for investors.

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Open Interest Hits Record High on Deribit

This week’s put/call ratio for Bitcoin options stands at 1.03, showing a near balance between bullish and bearish bets. According to Coinglass, the max pain point—where most options expire worthless—is around $114,000. Open interest remains heavily concentrated between $120,000 and $140,000, while short-term sellers have placed over $2 billion in positions near $100,000.

Across all exchanges, total BTC options open interest has surged to a record $63 billion, with Deribit alone accounting for $50 billion. “The derivatives structure appears to be shifting from high leverage toward hedging,” noted Greeks Live, adding that many investors are frustrated by Bitcoin’s underperformance compared to gold and equities.

The recent AWS outage also briefly disrupted Coinbase trading, making it harder for institutions to execute large orders during this critical expiry period.

Ethereum Options Add to Expiry Pressure

Alongside Bitcoin, around 193,000 Ethereum options contracts, valued at roughly $749 million, are also expiring today. The max pain level for ETH options sits near $3,950, with a put/call ratio of 0.78, suggesting a slightly bullish bias. Total Ethereum open interest now exceeds $15 billion, bringing the combined crypto options expiry value to nearly $5.8 billion.

Spot Market Outlook: Limited Reaction Expected

Meanwhile, the global crypto market cap has risen 1.8% in the past 24 hours to $3.8 trillion. Bitcoin (BTC) briefly climbed above $111,000 late Thursday before pulling back slightly on Friday morning, while Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and BNB posted solid gains.

Analysts expect Bitcoin to consolidate between $110,000 and $114,000 following today’s expiry as traders await macroeconomic cues and liquidity shifts to define the next major move.

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Bitcoin Pullback: $108K After $114K Peak

Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) fell from a peak of $114K to $108K. Analysts emphasize that this pullback does not negate the overall trend, and long-term capital rotation may still favor digital assets. Market research firm Swissblock noted that a similar pattern occurred earlier this year: in April, gold lost 5% in three days while Bitcoin remained stable before launching a strong rally. This indicates that short-term corrections may be seen as long-term opportunities by investors.

Shifting Power Between Gold and Bitcoin

The sharp decline in gold highlights Bitcoin’s potential as a store of value. For crypto investors, this period signals three key points:

• Liquidity Rotation: Capital may move from gold to digital assets.

• Macro Trend: As inflation pressures ease, Bitcoin’s “digital gold” perception strengthens.

• Price Behavior: Short-term corrections can be part of longer bullish cycles.

Binance founder CZ summarized this dynamic: “Bitcoin will eventually surpass gold. I don’t know exactly when, but it’s inevitable.”

Even though BTC is currently at $108K, the gold price crash could create a structural opportunity for digital assets. Analysts suggest that the shift from gold to Bitcoin may continue, marking the next phase in the ongoing competition between traditional and digital assets.

Conclusion: Gold Falls, Bitcoin Stabilizes

The gold price crash has reshaped investors’ risk perception. Bitcoin’s short-term pullback does not diminish its long-term role as digital gold. If current trends persist, capital rotation from gold to digital assets may define the next major movement in financial markets.

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Bitcoin Bull Index Signals Neutral Sentiment 

The Bitcoin Bull Score Index recovered from 20 to 50 in recent days, moving market sentiment from bearish to neutral. Analysts note that the index must rise above 60 to confirm bullish conditions. In late August, Bitcoin broke key support levels, falling from $120K to below $108K. 

Additionally, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index climbed from 48 to 52, reinforcing the neutral mood. This shift indicates that investors are positioning cautiously ahead of the Federal Reserve decision. Importantly, Bitcoin now trades steadily above $115K, showing signs of resilience. 

Investors Await Fed Rate Cut Decision 

Crypto traders are watching the Federal Reserve’s September 17 meeting closely. Markets widely expect a 25 basis point rate cut, but a larger reduction would likely spark stronger moves across crypto assets. 

Meanwhile, Bitcoin trading volume jumped 54% in the last 24 hours, signaling renewed activity. BTC traded between $114,461 and $116,747 intraday, holding firm near the upper range. This reflects increasing interest in both Bitcoin and the wider crypto market analysis. 

Court Blocks Trump, Protects Fed Independence 

The U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia stopped President Trump from removing Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Judge Jia Cobb issued an order ensuring that Cook maintains her voting rights in the FOMC meeting. The court also required Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the Board of Governors to protect her full rights. 

At the same time, the Senate confirmed Trump’s nominee Stephen Miran as a new Fed Governor. This means both Cook and Miran will vote at the upcoming FOMC meeting, underlining the importance of Fed independence for monetary policy. 

Key Takeaways 

• Bitcoin Bull Score Index rose from 20 to 50, signaling neutral sentiment. 
• Fear & Greed Index increased to 52, reflecting cautious optimism. 
• Court blocked Trump from removing Lisa Cook before the FOMC. 
• BTC price holds above $115K as traders await the Fed decision. 

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Up until about a month ago, profit-taking on the Bitcoin network was moderate. However, this has changed. On-chain analytics provider Glassnode reported that profit-taking on the leading digital network has accelerated again. After weeks of upward movement, Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase, trading below $110,000. 

Profit-taking is ramping up on the #Bitcoin network again. Yesterday, $BTC realized profits hit $2.46B, while the 7D SMA climbed to $1.52B. That’s above the YTD average of $1.14B, but still well below the ~$4-5B peaks (7D SMA) seen in Nov–Dec 2024. pic.twitter.com/hGnQHyEI2c

— glassnode (@glassnode) July 1, 2025

According to Glassnode, realized profits in Bitcoin reached $2.46 billion on June 30. The network’s seven-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) rose to $1.52 billion. This metric, which averages prices over a specific period to identify trends, is currently above the year-to-date average of $1.14 billion. However, it still falls short of the $4.5 billion peak seen in November-December 2024. 

Long-Term Bitcoin Investors Take Action 

The rise in the seven-day SMA suggests increasing coin distribution on the network. Medium- and long-term BTC holders are leading this profit realization trend. Glassnode reports that holders in the three to five-year range have realized at least $849 million in profit. They are followed by holders in the seven to ten-year range, who realized $485 million in profit. Meanwhile, those holding BTC for one to two years gained $445 million. 

Short-term holders (less than one year) cashed out the least, with realized profits under $6 million. Interestingly, older BTC holders have led the profit realization in this cycle. Spending activity among this group increased in late May, raising the total volume of one- to five-year holders to $4 billion—the highest since February. While these older investors lead the trend, the bulk of the volume still stems from this specific group of Bitcoin holders. 

Profit-taking on the #Bitcoin network was driven mostly by mid- to long-term holders. $BTC aged 3–5y realized $849M, followed by 7–10y at $485M, and 1–2y at $445M. Short-term holders (<6m) played a much smaller role. pic.twitter.com/D1MYRJ1oI0

— glassnode (@glassnode) July 1, 2025

Whales Are Also Redistributing Their Bitcoin 

Glassnode’s latest report is also backed by institutional DeFi analytics platform Sentora (formerly IntoTheBlock), which noted that wallets holding over 1,000 BTC have been steadily reducing their balances. This suggests that, despite institutional capital flowing into Bitcoin, whales are still offloading their holdings. 

Sentora views this redistribution not as a sign of weakness but as a signal of a maturing market. The distribution of old whale coins could become a dynamic that strengthens Bitcoin’s long-term potential. As of this writing, BTC remains in a consolidation phase, with the price staying below $110,000 in recent weeks. 

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This resistance continues to block Bitcoin’s attempts to climb back to $112,000. This stagnant movement is mainly due to investors remaining cautious amid geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties. Particularly, rising tensions in the Middle East, conflicts between Israel and Iran, and cyberattacks are undermining investor confidence. 

Iran-based cryptocurrency exchange Nobitex was attacked by a pro-Israel hacker group, resulting in a $81 million loss. This incident exposed the vulnerability of crypto assets during geopolitical cyber conflicts. Bitcoin is often promoted as “digital gold,” but during times of crisis, it underperforms compared to traditional safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasury bonds. While gold approached all-time highs this week, BTC lost 3.6% in value just last week. 

Fed Decision and Inflation Concerns Weigh on Bitcoin 

The U.S. Federal Reserve kept its policy interest rate steady at 4.25–4.50% during its June 18 meeting. However, its ongoing hawkish stance against inflation increased pressure on risk assets. Due to a core PCE inflation rate of 2.8% and potential trade policies from Trump, the Fed reduced expectations for rate cuts. 

According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the FOMC now projects only two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2025, down from four previously. Markets are currently pricing in just a 58.4% chance of a rate cut in September. 

This scenario strengthens the U.S. dollar while putting further pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. Diminishing liquidity expectations reduce demand for digital assets. According to QCP Capital’s June 18 report, the Fed is likely to make only one rate cut, limiting Bitcoin’s upward momentum. 

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