It is still early to see concrete impacts of AI on the labor market, but the report will be closely monitored for weak job growth or unexpected job losses.

Market-Moving Events on Friday

Besides today’s payroll data, speeches from Federal Reserve officials Daly, Paulson, Collins, and Hammack will be key for markets. Rising bond yields are pressuring Fed rate cut expectations, while risk assets are recovering from movements in oil prices. Bitcoin and global equities have stabilized after the early-week sell-off triggered by the US-Israel-Iran tensions.

Bonds remain cautious; rising yields are bringing inflation concerns back into focus. Strong economic data from the US and ongoing energy-driven price shocks are keeping investors on edge.

Bitcoin and Equities

Bitcoin traded above $70,000 on Friday, gaining roughly 10% since the start of the week. Prices had dropped to around $65,000 over the weekend due to US-Israel-Iran tensions, then briefly climbed to $74,000 on Wednesday.

S&P 500 futures also rebounded; contracts that fell to 6,718 on Tuesday have climbed to about 6,840 at the time of writing.

Oil and Geopolitical Risks

Reports that Iran blocked oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz triggered initial risk-off moves. The US quickly responded, providing escort for tankers and political risk coverage, bringing short-term stability to markets. Brent crude is trading around $85.47.

The bond market remains cautious. According to CME Fed Funds futures, investors now see less than a 50% chance of the Fed cutting rates twice by 25 basis points this year, down from around 80% before the conflict. Attention is now on today’s job data and wage growth figures.

Labor Data and Fed Expectations

Last month, US labor data exceeded expectations: 130,000 new jobs were created in January, unemployment dropped to 4.3%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.4%. Expectations for February are more moderate, suggesting a return to the “low hiring, low firing” pattern seen over the past year.

Jerome Powell’s April meeting will be particularly critical for Fed policy. Higher-than-expected employment or wage growth could weaken rate cut expectations and trigger new market volatility.

Market Notes and Micro Data

• BTC: $70,642 (approx. 10% gain since start of week)
• S&P 500 Futures: 6,840
• Bond yields: rising, Fed cut expectations decreasing
• Oil: brief spike after Hormuz Strait news, now stable

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Since the October peak, the ongoing decline has wiped approximately $1.2 trillion from the total market value, with losses exceeding 30% in the past seven days. However, this pullback cannot be attributed to a single headline.

Whales and Institutional Selling Pressure

The first breakdown comes from large wallets. Major investors and large wallets hold 68% of BTC supply. In just the past eight days, whale wallets have sold 81,068 BTC. Small wallets are buying, but the overall impact remains limited. Historically, this combination signals early stages of a bear market cycle.

Moreover, it’s not only investors—miners have also joined the selling side. Mining companies like Marathon Digital have transferred millions of BTC to exchanges. MARA and RIOT shares fell 14–18%, increasing selling pressure and straining market liquidity. These movements create a “death spiral” effect on investor psychology, also affecting gold, silver, and treasury assets.

Options and Expiry Dates

On February 6, more than 32,000 BTC options expired on Deribit. With a nominal value of $2.1 billion, this created significant volatility in the options market. Put option volume exceeded calls, increasing downside pressure; BTC’s implied volatility fell from 90 to 69 within hours.

But here’s the other side. The maximum drop price remained high at $80,000, signaling a potential short-term rebound. Investors are tracking macro indicators, ETF flows, and overall market sentiment, expecting BTC to consolidate between $65,000 and $70,000.

ETF Outflows and Market Perception

Another structural shift occurred on the ETF front. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $1.2 billion in net outflows over the last three trading days. An additional $434 million was withdrawn in just two days. BlackRock’s IBIT fund led with a $175 million outflow, while Fidelity, Grayscale, Bitwise, and Ark 21Shares moved in a similar direction.

Interestingly, IBIT trading volume hit a record 284 million shares on the same day, representing over $10 billion in nominal value. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas described this volume as “extremely brutal” as the price dropped 13%.

The charts show the decline. But seeing red on screen is another story.

At the same time, declines in tech stocks and rising AI investments affected investor psychology. Amazon, Qualcomm, and other giants increased spending, while software and semiconductor sectors faced heightened risks.

Additionally, Trump’s harsh reaction to the potential Fed chair appointment of Kevin Warsh and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s statement, “We do not have the authority to rescue Bitcoin,” reinforced caution among institutional investors.

In Summary: Bitcoin’s sharp decline is not the result of a single event. Whale sales, options expiry, chain liquidations, ETF outflows, and weakness in tech stocks all played a role simultaneously.

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Market analysts note that these sudden surges often follow a structural pattern that moves against retail investor behavior. Short bursts of aggressive buying, followed by immediate stalling, suggest that the move may rely more on thin liquidity than on a sustainable trend. The sharp retreat from the peak has intensified uncertainty among traders who are still looking for clear direction.

Fragile Foundations Behind the Rebound

Bitcoin’s jump to the 94,000-dollar level instantly shifted social sentiment. Analysts say this atmosphere makes traders vulnerable to quick FOMO reactions. Yet the price retraced back to the 92,000-dollar area within minutes, revealing how fragile the rebound actually was.

“Markets move opposite to the small traders’ behavior,” Santiment said, adding that this dynamic became clear in the hours following the monthly high.

Experts explain that such short-lived spikes often appear in periods of weak market depth. Limited order book density allows small liquidity injections to move prices sharply. Once these artificial pushes fade, the trend loses momentum and reverses quickly.

Fed Uncertainty Tightens Market Conditions

The market’s attention is now centered on Wednesday’s Federal Reserve announcement. Futures markets signal an almost 88 percent probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut. However, several analysts warn that a vague or cautious outlook on the broader rate path could pressure Bitcoin in the short term.

The market is split between two scenarios. Some investors believe an easing cycle will boost risk appetite. Others argue the price has already overreacted to optimistic expectations and could face a correction.

Key near-term risks include:

• A more cautious Fed stance could trigger immediate selling pressure.

Manipulation Concerns Inject More Doubt

Some long-term BTC investors say the sudden price move lacked organic characteristics. The abrupt wave of heavy market buys, followed by complete stagnation, has fueled concerns about engineered price action. Large trades executed in a thin order book can push prices upward quickly, only to lose strength moments later. For some observers, this resembles a classic FOMO setup designed to unload positions at better levels.

All signs point to the Fed announcement as the key catalyst that will shape Bitcoin next major move. The market appears ready for intense volatility, and investor sentiment remains highly reactive during this uncertain phase.

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While these transfers do not directly imply a price drop, they generate critical signals in terms of liquidity and volatility. Movements by large wallets are among the structural factors that affect market behavior. Historical examples show that similar whale activities have triggered short-term price fluctuations.

Lookonchain and Arkham Intelligence Data

Lookonchain highlighted in its on-chain alert that the target address is not tagged as an exchange wallet. This detail reduces the likelihood of immediate selling pressure. However, past analyses by Glassnode and CryptoQuant indicate that large Bitcoin movements, if followed by exchange inflows, can significantly affect prices. Investors should therefore monitor potential exchange entries in the coming hours.

Arkham Intelligence data shows that the fund is reorganizing its assets across multiple sub-wallets. Such structuring is often done for security improvements or in preparation for OTC trades. This allows major funds to manage their market impact while adjusting positions strategically.

Short-Term Risks and Opportunities for the Market

Bitcoin’s recent on-chain transaction volume has remained above 500,000, indicating that the long-term outlook remains strong. Yet, the impact of large transfers becomes relevant in short-term price behavior. Similar movements at the end of 2024 caused BTC to dip below critical support levels. Investors should carefully monitor both macro trends and on-chain metrics.

Key indicators for investors to watch include:

• Increases in BTC inflows to exchanges

• Redistribution patterns of whale wallets

• Changes in liquidity levels

• Intensity of short-term volatility waves

The 43,122 BTC transfer by Twenty One Capital clearly reflects the ongoing restructuring of institutional Bitcoin holdings. While it does not currently signal immediate selling pressure, subsequent actions will influence price volatility. Both professional traders and retail investors continue to track on-chain metrics closely.

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Bitcoin tests a key support level

Weekend sell-offs pulled Bitcoin down to 93,029 dollars, slipping below the 93,507-dollar level where the year began. A mild rebound lifted BTC back toward 94,209 dollars, yet overall pressure on the crypto market remains intact. Meanwhile, investors continue to question why the market failed to recover even after the U.S. government ended its 43-day shutdown. This development created a contrast with the optimistic expectations that dominated early 2025.

Corporate interest rises, but the price remains under pressure

The strong outlook at the beginning of 2025 was supported by the Trump administration’s pro-crypto stance and increasing corporate Bitcoin treasury allocations. Additionally, fresh inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs boosted expectations. Despite these favorable factors, BTC continued its decline as regulatory momentum increased. A major reason behind the weak price action has been profit-taking by long-term holders and OG Bitcoin investors. According to Glassnode analysts, this behavior is not panic-driven but rather a typical late-cycle pattern. At the same time, leading altcoins such as Ethereum and Solana have also fallen between 7 and 28 percent, showing that the downturn is market-wide.

Bitcoin cycle debate resurfaces

Analysts have renewed discussions on whether the classic four-year Bitcoin cycle still applies. With institutional participation rising, some believe traditional models have lost their predictive power. However, several experts still expect a strong bull phase in 2026. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan argues that macroeconomic conditions combined with the “debasement trade” could trigger a new surge in BTC. Furthermore, the continued growth of stablecoins and tokenization supports the long-term expansion of the crypto ecosystem. Greater user adoption and clearer regulations are also listed among the constructive long-term factors.

BTC Analysis

Our analyst reports that Bitcoin continues to maintain its long-term upward trend on the weekly chart. The sharp correction from 110,000 dollars in January to 74,000 dollars created the same panic cycle seen in previous market phases. From that level, BTC rallied strongly toward 126,000 dollars, forming a new upward leg. A similar scenario remains possible in the current structure.

Technically, the potential reversal zone sits between 88,000 and 73,000 dollars. The price may bounce earlier, but the key factor is whether a confirmed breakout follows. Without such a breakout, BTC could revisit 106,000 dollars before turning downward again. For this reason, waiting for breakouts instead of trying to catch the exact bottom offers a safer strategy.

As long as the 73,000-dollar level holds, the overall trend structure is not expected to face major deterioration. Investors seeking to move with the trend may benefit from waiting for clearer direction and confirmation.

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The post Bitcoin Drops Sharply as 2025 Gains Vanish: Weekly BTC Analysis appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Open Interest Hits Record High on Deribit

This week’s put/call ratio for Bitcoin options stands at 1.03, showing a near balance between bullish and bearish bets. According to Coinglass, the max pain point—where most options expire worthless—is around $114,000. Open interest remains heavily concentrated between $120,000 and $140,000, while short-term sellers have placed over $2 billion in positions near $100,000.

Across all exchanges, total BTC options open interest has surged to a record $63 billion, with Deribit alone accounting for $50 billion. “The derivatives structure appears to be shifting from high leverage toward hedging,” noted Greeks Live, adding that many investors are frustrated by Bitcoin’s underperformance compared to gold and equities.

The recent AWS outage also briefly disrupted Coinbase trading, making it harder for institutions to execute large orders during this critical expiry period.

Ethereum Options Add to Expiry Pressure

Alongside Bitcoin, around 193,000 Ethereum options contracts, valued at roughly $749 million, are also expiring today. The max pain level for ETH options sits near $3,950, with a put/call ratio of 0.78, suggesting a slightly bullish bias. Total Ethereum open interest now exceeds $15 billion, bringing the combined crypto options expiry value to nearly $5.8 billion.

Spot Market Outlook: Limited Reaction Expected

Meanwhile, the global crypto market cap has risen 1.8% in the past 24 hours to $3.8 trillion. Bitcoin (BTC) briefly climbed above $111,000 late Thursday before pulling back slightly on Friday morning, while Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and BNB posted solid gains.

Analysts expect Bitcoin to consolidate between $110,000 and $114,000 following today’s expiry as traders await macroeconomic cues and liquidity shifts to define the next major move.

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