As Minister of State for Financial Services, Katayama pledged full support for exchanges building fintech-driven trading infrastructure. The move aims to make blockchain-based digital assets more accessible to the public through established stock and commodity markets.

Major Tax and Regulatory Changes

The government cut the crypto tax rate from 55% to 20%, bringing digital assets in line with stocks and other traditional investments. Japan also reclassified 105 cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, as financial products under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act. Investors can now carry forward crypto trading losses for up to three years.

SBI Holdings is preparing to file for ETFs, while Ripple plans to launch its RLUSD stablecoin in Q1 with SBI support.

Global Implications and Japan’s Strategy

Japan holds roughly $1.2 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds, making it the largest foreign holder. Any institutional move toward digital assets could affect global crypto markets. Japan has already approved its first yen-pegged stablecoin, JPYC, and regulators have discussed allowing banks to hold and trade cryptocurrencies directly.

Katayama described 2026 as a turning point for addressing structural economic challenges through fiscal policy and growth sector investment. With lower taxes, clearer regulations, and ETF products rolling out, Japan is positioning itself as a major global hub for digital assets.

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“Ultimately, 2026 will focus on moving beyond speculation and hype toward delivering real, scalable value. The next chapter for crypto is defined by purposeful adoption, trust, and long-term impact,” he said.

2026 Could Drive Greater Crypto Adoption

This year, the crypto market saw a notable shift from retail-focused ownership to institutional participation. Bitcoin (BTC) held by public companies and ETFs exceeded 2.5 million, while assets held on exchanges dropped to 2.94 million BTC—the lowest in five years. This change could ease bear market effects, reduce volatility, and limit speculative price swings.

• Over 200 public companies now hold Bitcoin.

• Institutional users on platforms like Binance increased by 14%.

• Binance recorded a 13% rise in institutional trading volume.

Teng predicts that in 2026, corporate treasuries will diversify beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum into major altcoins. Governments and public institutions are also expected to engage more actively through regulatory frameworks and pilot programs, expanding investment products such as ETFs.

Technological Innovation to Support Market Stability

Teng highlighted that the convergence of artificial intelligence and blockchain will create smarter and more secure infrastructures. These innovations can prevent losses from attacks, personalize user experiences, improve compliance, and boost platform efficiency.

Teng also noted that in 2026, cryptocurrencies will integrate more into mainstream finance. Governments are developing regulatory frameworks for digital assets, and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are becoming more widespread.

Growth in regulated investment products like stablecoins and Bitcoin ETFs is expected to continue, enhancing financial inclusion. Teng emphasized: “Artificial intelligence will play an increasing role in personalizing user experiences, improving compliance, and protecting the ecosystem.”

Why It Matters?

Rising institutional adoption and clearer regulations could reshape investor behavior and market cycles. These developments may reduce volatility, support sustainable growth, and integrate crypto more closely with traditional finance by 2026.

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Social Media Sentiment for XRP Turns Bullish

On-chain metrics and social analytics point to a noticeable improvement in how XRP is being discussed across major platforms. According to data shared by Santiment, the number of bullish comments recorded this week ranks as the seventh-highest level seen throughout the year. While XRP has moved within a $1.99 to $2.17 range recently, engagement levels remain elevated and closely aligned with price action.

“XRP’s bulls and bears continue to battle, and the asset is holding the $2.00 level for now. Sentiment across social media is generally bullish.”

Retail traders appear increasingly optimistic, particularly on Telegram, X, and crypto-focused forums. This behavior suggests continued accumulation even as price movement remains relatively stable. At the same time, LSI trend indicators show XRP returning to broader market conversations after a quieter period.

Continuous Inflows Into XRP ETFs Signal Institutional Demand

ETF activity provides an even stronger confirmation of sustained interest. Data from SoSoValue shows that spot XRP exchange-traded funds recorded more than $20.1 million in net inflows on Friday. This extended the positive inflow streak to 19 consecutive trading days. Cumulative inflows have now reached nearly $974.5 million, while total assets under management stand close to $1.18 billion.

Recent ETF flow behavior highlights several important dynamics:

• Most daily inflows are coming from U.S.-based ETF products

• Net outflows remain absent, even during lower-volume sessions

• Demand has stabilized following the strong inflow surge seen in November

This pattern suggests that XRP is increasingly being treated as a longer-term allocation within institutional portfolios rather than a short-term trade.

Ripple Builds Momentum Toward Year-End

Momentum on the Ripple side is also reinforcing XRP’s outlook. The company recently received approval for a U.S. national trust bank charter, marking a meaningful step forward in regulatory alignment. Around the same period, Ripple completed a $500 million funding round, supporting a valuation of approximately $40 billion.

Ripple’s continued expansion into stablecoins and financial infrastructure is broadening XRP’s potential use cases. When combined with strengthening social sentiment and sustained ETF inflows, these developments point to a more institutionally driven narrative emerging as the year draws to a close.

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Why Were the Filings Halted?

The SEC highlighted that leverage above 2x could trigger frequent fund terminations and create significant market volatility. Balchunas added, “The analyst also stated that allowing leverage above 2x could result in frequent termination events and a highly unstable market scenario.” Rule 18f-4 caps the value-at-risk at 200% and requires derivative-based funds to continuously monitor their exposure.

Direxion’s leveraged crypto ETFs and high-beta equity products were specifically affected by this notice. The SEC also issued a warning covering single-stock and sector-based leveraged ETF filings. “This step is a critical measure to prevent unnecessary risk in the market,” experts commented.

Rising Applications and Investor Concerns

In October, SEC’s Investment Management Division director Brian Daly noted a sharp increase in filings for 3x and 5x leveraged ETFs. Daly said, “The agency has received a large number of registration statements for ETFs seeking to offer 3x and 5x leveraged, equity-linked exposure. It is still unclear whether such ETFs would be consistent with the Derivatives Rule, Rule 18f-4, which generally limits leverage to 2x.”

VolShares offered 5x leveraged products for SOL, Ethereum, and XRP, while GraniteShares submitted a 3x XRP ETF filing. Morningstar ETF researcher Bryan Armour noted, “More than half of leveraged ETFs launched over the past three years have closed,” highlighting the inherent risks. However, Armour also said the SEC has been relatively open to innovation and new strategies.

Key Takeaways

• Filings for 3x and 5x leveraged crypto ETFs have been halted.

• Rule 18f-4 limits value-at-risk to 200%.

• SEC instructed issuers to revise strategies or withdraw filings.

• Direxion, VolShares, and GraniteShares’ applications were affected.

• Leverage above 2x could increase fund terminations and market volatility.

SEC’s decision to halt 3x and 5x leveraged crypto ETF filings serves as a critical warning for investors. Analysts emphasize that products with leverage above 2x may face heightened market fluctuations and sudden fund liquidations. This development urges both institutional and retail investors to reassess risk management strategies. Additionally, regulations under Rule 18f-4 make long-term sustainability for high-leverage ETFs challenging. Investors should consider these new market dynamics and regulatory limits when planning their strategies.

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This trend raises questions for investors about BTC expectations as the year-end approaches. November 2025 ranks among the weakest periods on record. Historical data suggests that a red November often leads to continued pressure in December, though the decline is usually milder.

Why BTC Price Disappointed Bulls

Bitcoin has fallen 36% from its all-time highs, shaking the confidence of bullish investors. Network economist Timothy Peterson noted on Twitter (X) that BTC’s second-half 2025 performance almost entirely mirrors 2022.

Commenting on November’s performance, Peterson wrote, “It feels bad because it is bad.” His words summarize why investors remain cautious amid short-term volatility.

Institutional Investors Return to Crypto

Meanwhile, rising risk appetite and institutional interest indicate potential year-end market recovery. According to Bloomberg and JPMorgan data, U.S. equity funds have received $900 billion in new capital since November 2024, with $450 billion added in the last five months alone.

By contrast, other asset classes have only seen $100 billion inflows. This demonstrates that equities have attracted more capital than all other asset classes combined.

Crypto ETFs Boost Investor Sentiment

Bitcoin and Ether ETFs indicate that the peak of institutional crypto sell-offs may be behind us. During Thanksgiving week, BTC ETFs recorded $220 million in inflows, while Ether ETFs added $312 million. These figures signal renewed investor interest in digital assets.

Experts suggest that BTC may not experience a true price rebound until Q1 2026. However, the growing appetite for risk assets and ETF inflows provide hope for a potential year-end “Santa rally.”

History Repeats, But Investors Should Be Prepared

As 2025 draws to a close, Bitcoin mirrors the previous bear market trend. Weak performance in November may extend into December, albeit with a lighter decline. Institutional capital and ETF inflows could provide positive momentum, making preparation for short-term volatility crucial for investors.

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Just like traditional ETFs, crypto ETFs are traded on exchanges and gain or lose value based on the price movements of the asset or basket of assets they track. What is a crypto ETF? Let’s examine it in detail.

What Is a Crypto ETF? What Advantages Does It Offer?

The simplest answer to the question “What is a crypto ETF?” is that they are investment funds that turn cryptocurrencies into exchange-traded products.

Crypto ETFs can be bought and sold through standard brokerage accounts, just like stock or commodity ETFs. This allows investors to access popular cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum—or baskets containing these assets—without holding the asset physically. Various spot or futures-based ETF types exist in many countries, especially in Canada and the United States.

These funds track the price movements of the underlying assets either directly or with high accuracy. Since crypto ETF shares trade on exchanges, their price is determined throughout the day based on supply and demand. This allows investors to benefit from both the regulatory framework and security of traditional finance and from the price exposure of crypto assets.

1. Easy Trading

You can purchase an ETF just like buying a stock, without the need to open a crypto exchange account.

2. Tax Advantage (TFSA/RRSP example for Canada)

Direct crypto purchases may not be eligible for such accounts, but crypto ETFs may qualify.

3. Easy Storage

Wallet management and private key storage difficulties are eliminated.

Things to Consider Before Investing

Crypto ETFs are still affected by the volatility in the crypto market.

Tracking error may occur in ETFs; the ETF return may not always match the actual return of the underlying asset.

Management fees (MER) may be higher than those of traditional ETFs.

Types of Crypto ETFs

1. Spot Crypto ETFs — Direct Exposure

Spot ETFs physically purchase and hold the cryptocurrency they track.
For example, a Bitcoin Spot ETF holds actual BTC within the fund.

Advantage:
It provides direct price exposure without the need to buy or store the crypto itself.

2. Futures Crypto ETFs — Forward-Looking Pricing

These ETFs do not hold the cryptocurrency physically; they track the price through futures contracts.

Note: Due to futures contracts, price differences may occur and costs may be higher.

What Is an ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund)?

An ETF is an investment fund consisting of assets such as stocks, bonds, commodities, or currencies and traded on exchanges.
The goal is to track the price movements of the underlying asset.

ETFs:

Are bought and sold throughout the trading day

Are generally low-cost

Offer portfolio diversification

Crypto ETFs are the application of this structure to crypto assets.

How Does a Crypto ETF Work?

When a company issues a crypto ETF:

It holds the underlying asset (e.g., BTC) or buys futures contracts.

It releases ETF shares corresponding to this asset into the market.

Investors buy and sell these shares through brokerage firms.

Investors do not hold the crypto directly but benefit from its price movements.

Difference Between Blockchain ETFs and Crypto ETFs

Blockchain ETF: Tracks companies related to blockchain technology (Coinbase, MicroStrategy, mining firms, etc.).
It does not directly invest in cryptocurrency.

Crypto ETF: Provides direct exposure to the price movements of cryptocurrencies.

What Is a Bitcoin Spot ETF?

A Spot Bitcoin ETF is an exchange-traded fund that tracks Bitcoin’s real-time market price. ETFs give investors exposure to an asset class, a basket of assets, or a single asset without requiring direct ownership of the underlying asset.

With a Spot Bitcoin ETF, investors can benefit from Bitcoin’s price movements without buying or storing BTC themselves. This removes the need for managing private keys, handling digital wallets, or dealing with the technical side of crypto trading.

What Is a Bitcoin Futures ETF?

Bitcoin futures ETFs track the futures price of Bitcoin, not the spot price. Examples such as BITO, XBTF, and BTF are currently active. These ETFs rely entirely on futures contracts and their price may be more volatile.

Regulation Status

The U.S. delayed approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs for many years but in 2024 approved spot BTC ETF applications from companies such as BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale.

Canada, on the other hand, approved the world’s first Bitcoin spot ETF (BTCC) in 2021 and today has multiple spot BTC and ETH ETFs.

What Is an Ethereum ETF?

A Spot Ethereum ETF operates similarly to its Bitcoin counterpart. It follows the real-time price of Ether (ETH) and holds actual ETH in its reserves. This structure distinguishes it from futures-based Ethereum ETFs, which rely on contracts that speculate on ETH’s future price rather than holding the asset directly.

While Spot Ethereum ETFs make it easier for investors to gain exposure to ETH, they also come with certain trade-offs. These may include additional management fees and the limitation of trading only during traditional market hours—unlike the crypto markets, which operate 24/7.

What Is a Solana (SOL) Spot ETF?

A Solana Spot ETF is an exchange-traded fund that holds actual SOL tokens, giving investors direct price exposure without requiring them to manage wallets or store crypto assets themselves.

Advantages of Crypto ETFs

Bringing traditional finance and crypto together: Lowers the entry barrier for institutional investors.
Portfolio diversification: Multiple assets can be included within a single ETF.
Convenience: Eliminates issues like wallet management, transfer fees, and security.
Tax and regulatory compliance: Many funds trade on regulated platforms, making them more reliable.

Disadvantages of Crypto ETFs

Sacrifice of decentralization: Assets are held by a custodian, violating the “Not your keys, not your crypto” principle.
High management fees: Some crypto ETFs may be expensive.
No crypto-to-crypto trading: Direct BTC → ETH conversions are not possible.
Tracking error risk: ETF performance may not match the underlying asset.
Liquidity risk: Price discrepancies may occur.

How Do ETFs Work?

• Traded throughout the day on exchanges
• Bought and sold like stocks
• Track a basket of assets
• Generally passively managed
• These features make ETFs both practical and cost-effective for investors.

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Regional Distribution of Institutional Investments

• United States: Led with $843 million in inflows.

• Germany: Recorded one of its largest weekly inflows on record at $502 million.

• Switzerland: Saw outflows of $359 million, primarily due to asset transfers between providers rather than actual selling pressure.

These figures clearly highlight which regions institutional investors are targeting for digital assets. The U.S. remains the largest liquidity hub.

Bitcoin: The Favorite of Institutional Investors

According to the weekly report, Bitcoin topped the charts with $931 million in inflows. Since the U.S. Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates, cumulative institutional inflows into Bitcoin have reached $9.4 billion. Year-to-date (YTD) inflows now stand at $30.2 billion, still below last year’s $41.6 billion.

This shows that institutional investors continue to view Bitcoin as a safe haven and long-term store of value.

Ethereum: Weekly Outflows

Ethereum experienced $169 million in outflows after five consecutive weeks of inflows. Although daily outflows were consistent throughout the week, 2x leveraged ETPs remain popular among institutional investors.

Solana and XRP: Cooling Ahead of ETF Launches

• Solana: $29.4 million inflows

• XRP: $84.3 million inflows

Both tokens saw a slowdown in inflows ahead of U.S. ETF launches, indicating that institutional investors are waiting for regulatory developments and upcoming product releases before adjusting their strategies.

Weekly and YTD Institutional Flows

This week, institutional investors clearly favored Bitcoin and other crypto assets, while inflows into XRP and multi-asset products were limited. Solana inflows remained modest, whereas Ethereum, Sui, and Cardano experienced net outflows.

Global ETP (Exchange Traded Products) trading volumes reached $39 billion this week, well above the YTD weekly average of $28 billion. This reflects active participation by institutional investors and ongoing interest in assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Year-to-date, institutional investors have allocated $30.2 billion to Bitcoin, $14 billion to Ethereum, $2.8 billion to Solana, and $1.9 billion to XRP. These numbers suggest that institutions view Bitcoin and Ethereum as the cornerstones of their portfolios, while diversifying strategically across altcoins.

Investment Trends Among Institutional Investors

• Bitcoin remains the preferred choice, continuing to serve as a safe haven and liquidity vehicle.

• Short-term fluctuations are observed in Ethereum and some altcoins.

• Investors closely monitor ETF launches and regulatory updates, adjusting their strategies accordingly.

These trends provide valuable insight into institutional confidence in the crypto market and serve as an important indicator for retail investors seeking to understand market direction.

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SEC Chairman Paul Atkins described this move as the beginning of a new era for crypto markets. According to Atkins, the change will lower costs and bring greater efficiency for ETF issuers and investors alike. 

Previously, only cash-based transactions were allowed. Now, authorized participants can use digital assets directly when creating or redeeming ETF shares. This shift reduces pressure on the market and allows for smoother, more cost-effective operations. 

What Does the New System Offer? Greater Efficiency in Crypto ETFs 

Jamie Selway, Director of the SEC’s Division of Trading and Markets, said the in-kind mechanism provides flexibility and cost advantages for fund issuers. Additionally, funds can now operate without having to sell crypto assets, which helps minimize tax burdens. 

To recall, the SEC approved spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs back in 2024, but limited them to cash-based processes. Since then, the crypto industry has consistently called for in-kind options. 

Just last month, SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce acknowledged the demand during her speech at the Bitcoin Policy Institute conference. In short, this regulatory move marks a long-anticipated shift within the crypto sector. 

Meanwhile, recent developments in Congress have also accelerated this transition. Lawmakers passed three major crypto-related bills addressing market structure, stablecoin regulations, and opposition to a surveillance-driven central bank digital currency (CBDC). These legislative changes align with the Trump administration’s pro-crypto stance. 

Growing Demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs 

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded over $6.6 billion in inflows across the last 12 trading days. According to Bitbo data, these funds now hold approximately 1.298 million BTC — valued at around $152.1 billion. 

On the Ethereum side, BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum ETF has gained attention for its rapid growth. The fund surpassed $10 billion in assets in just 251 days, becoming the third-fastest ETF to reach that milestone. 

In summary, with SEC approval of in-kind transactions, crypto ETFs enter a new chapter. This rule not only boosts efficiency but also supports broader regulatory reform across the digital asset landscape.

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The SEC stated it needs additional time to review Truth Social’s S-1 filing submitted in June. According to the official announcement, the Commission will announce its decision on this application by September 18, 2025. The decision could be an approval, rejection, or referral to another process. 

Truth Social’s application came after the SEC approved its first spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. During this period, BlackRock’s IBIT fund rose to lead the ETF market with nearly $100 billion in assets under management. 

Second Extension for Grayscale’s Solana ETF Application

Following Truth Social, Grayscale re-entered the SEC’s focus. The Commission extended the review period for Solana Trust’s conversion to an ETF until October 10, 2025. Previously postponed twice in March and May, this marks the third delay. 

In mid-June, Grayscale and other issuers made several updates to their applications based on SEC feedback. Issues such as staking mechanisms and the same redemption model caused detailed regulatory review. 

https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1914336419314643103

Meanwhile, companies like VanEck, 21Shares, and Canary Capital also filed for spot Solana ETFs. Additionally, Rex Osprey’s SOL Staking ETF attracted attention with a $133 million target size. 

Approval Process Must Be Completed by End of 2025

Legally, the SEC must decide on all ETF applications by the end of 2025. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted on X that the SEC currently has 72 crypto ETF applications pending. These applications cover various crypto assets including Bitcoin, Solana, Litecoin, XRP, Dogecoin, and Cardano. However, the SEC’s cautious approach continues to lag behind the market’s pace.

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A Shift Toward Convergence?

Fabian Dori, Chief Investment Officer at Sygnum Bank, believes that the dynamic between banks and crypto is no longer a simple rivalry—it’s becoming a fusion. As digital assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum gain recognition as reserve assets, banks are starting to appreciate the benefits of crypto technologies such as real-time processing, transparency, and efficiency.

At the same time, crypto platforms are adopting the risk and compliance frameworks of traditional finance (TradFi). The question is no longer “do we need crypto?” but rather “how do we integrate it?”

Shawn Young from MEXC Research shares a similar view. He notes that by 2025, banks are starting to view blockchain not as a threat, but as the foundation of next-generation financial infrastructure. In his view, survival and competitiveness depend on collaboration.

Banks’ Strategy: Absorb, Package, Deliver

Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget, argues that the relationship between banks and crypto is not purely collaborative or adversarial. Instead, banks are working to domesticate crypto by integrating it into their systems. Just like they’ve done with ETFs and derivatives, they aim to repackage crypto and offer it to traditional clients.

A large share of crypto assets now flows through bank-linked on-ramps, custody services, and regulated stablecoins. In other words, a significant portion of crypto capital is already intertwined with traditional finance.

What’s Next? Banks’ Crypto Ambitions

Major banks are now exploring projects beyond stablecoins. These include tokenization, staking, custodial services, and even proprietary Layer-2 blockchain solutions. These offerings aim to create new revenue models and accelerate digital transformation within banking systems.

According to Anthony Georgiades, some banks have already started offering crypto ETFs, staking rewards, and even crypto-backed loans. Others are venturing into tokenized securities or digitized real estate products.

Still, this evolution won’t be easy. Full crypto integration demands significant changes in both technology and regulation. Banks must now grapple with KYC, AML, wallet management, and blockchain node operations as part of their everyday business.

Growing Competition, Higher Standards

As more banking system enter the crypto space, competition naturally increases. But that doesn’t spell doom for crypto-native firms. In fact, banks often lack the infrastructure or in-house expertise and need external partnerships—opening doors for collaboration.

Chen points out that while banks bring scale and regulatory clarity, crypto-native companies maintain their edge in DeFi, Web3 integration, and protocol development. Dori also highlights that these firms excel in creating agile, user-focused solutions that continue to push innovation forward.

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