According to Santiment, if large investors sell while retail buys, the market correction is not yet complete.

Iran Sell-Off Wave and Whale Strategy

During last week’s Iran-driven sell-off, whales aggressively accumulated Bitcoin. When the price reached $74,000, the same wallets started taking profits. Retail investors, however, bought around $70,000 hoping for a recovery. Santiment data shows that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC accumulated heavily between February 23 and March 3, then began selling at $74,000. This is regarded as a classic signal of the whale-retail divergence.

The accumulation by 10–10,000 BTC wallets triggered the $74,000 rally, while their distribution caused the current decline. This group is currently the most reliable signal source for short-term price direction.

Why is Bitcoin Dropping?

The current retracement in the market is driven by profit-taking from large wallets (whales) and retail investors buying as a contrarian indicator, deepening the supply-demand imbalance. The Fear & Greed Index falling to 12 indicates investor psychology trapped in “extreme fear.”

Bitcoin Supply and Selling Pressure

Glassnode data clarifies the situation further. About 43% of Bitcoin supply is still at a loss, and every rally is met with selling from investors aiming to break even. The $74,000 surge also hit a supply wall; whales took profits, while retail investors waited for the price to stabilize. When Bitcoin reached its local top, transactions over $1 million spiked significantly. Whale activity during rallies signals profit-taking; during dips, it indicates accumulation.

Even though the market shows strong weekly movement, monthly progress remains limited. Bitcoin reached $60,000 on February 6, $74,000 on March 5, and now hovers around $68,000, the level from about three weeks ago. Each rally is met with position closing, and each drop with recovery attempts, keeping net movement almost zero.

Market Crossroads

This dynamic can resolve in two ways. Either selling pressure exhausts, excess supply is absorbed, and Bitcoin rises above $74,000. Or buying pressure fades, retail capital is depleted, and the $60,000 floor is truly tested. Weekly whale movements indicate that major investors are leaning toward the second scenario.

Is a $60,000 Test Coming?

Bitcoin’s direction will be shaped by the whale-retail conflict and market sentiment. Volatility is high, prices are testing psychological levels, and the risk-reward balance for investors is delicate. If selling pressure persists, the drop could accelerate; if buying pressure strengthens, recovery could be more sustainable.

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Losses Accelerate

Last week, BitMine added over 40,000 Ether to its portfolio. However, as prices quickly declined, the timing of this move became controversial. When liquidity tightens, large institutional crypto holdings can increase market volatility. On Saturday, Ether fell to $2,300, while sales across major tokens and mandatory liquidations in derivatives markets added further pressure. BitMine’s portfolio was directly affected, and its paper losses grew rapidly.

Similarly, Strategy, the largest institutional Bitcoin holder, is facing a challenging period. The company’s average BTC cost stands at $76,037, and Bitcoin prices falling below this level have pushed its roughly 700,000 BTC holdings into paper losses.

Lee Maintains Cautious Outlook

BitMine CEO Tom Lee says markets are still in a debt-reduction phase and conditions could remain challenging until early 2026. The sharp October sell-off—wiping out about $19 billion in market value—reshaped positioning in the crypto space. Lee remains cautious in the short term but maintains BitMine’s long-term growth objectives, helping investors navigate the market’s volatility.

Staking Income Fails to Offset Losses

BitMine earns approximately $164 million annually from staking a portion of its Ether holdings. However, network yield fluctuations are insufficient to offset large price drops. For investors, the paper losses in the company’s balance sheet highlight the sensitivity of crypto markets and liquidity shortages. The performance of Ether and other major tokens in the coming weeks will reflect the risks BitMine has taken.

BitMine’s aggressive accumulation strategy demonstrates how market volatility can directly impact institutional balance sheets. Investors and analysts will closely monitor these losses to shape future strategies.

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According to TradingView data, BTC/USD dropped more than 7% during weekend trading, decisively losing the $80,000 support zone. With this break, the April 2025 bottom near $74,500 has returned to focus. Thin liquidity amplified volatility, allowing sell orders to accelerate and deepen price gaps.

Liquidation Cascade Accelerates

The latest decline wiped out roughly $800 million in leveraged positions within a short time frame. Total liquidations across the crypto market approached $2 billion, highlighting the scale of forced selling. A fragile market structure, already weakened earlier in the week, failed to absorb the pressure once liquidity dried up.

Keith Alan, cofounder of Material Indicators, commented on X that the local low near $80,500 had been completely invalidated. According to Alan, the breakdown increases the probability of further downside tests at lower historical levels.

Bitcoin Loses Its “True Market Mean”

On-chain analyst On-Chain College noted that Bitcoin has now fallen below its true market mean, a metric representing the aggregate cost basis of the actively circulating BTC supply. This level is currently estimated at $80,700.

Bitcoin has not traded below this metric since October 2023, when the price was near $29,000. The loss of this level is widely viewed as a negative signal for short- to medium-term price structure, suggesting that market participants are now holding coins at an average unrealized loss.

From a technical perspective, analysts are also watching the $69,000 area — the peak of the previous bull market in November 2021 — as a potential downside reference if selling pressure persists.

Strategy Bitcoin Holdings Slip Into the Red

The decline has also affected corporate Bitcoin treasuries. Strategy, the company holding the largest amount of Bitcoin among publicly known firms, now faces unrealized losses on its BTC position. The firm’s average Bitcoin acquisition cost stands at approximately $76,037, placing its holdings underwater as price slipped below that threshold.

Strategy currently holds more than 700,000 BTC. Meanwhile, the company’s stock price has fallen to around $143, marking a nearly 70% decline from its local high of $455 recorded in July last year. Continued volatility in Bitcoin prices is increasing sensitivity around Strategy’s balance sheet.

Overall, the latest move underscores that near-term risks in the Bitcoin market remain elevated, with price still searching for a stable equilibrium.

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Futures markets, however, are clearer. They price in a 97% chance that the Fed will pause rate hikes, following three consecutive cuts. This expectation reflects a market gradually adjusting to the central bank’s recent policy moves.

Cautious Sentiment on the Fed Side

Last month’s FOMC minutes showed that caution dominates among policymakers. Officials are carefully weighing inflation risks against potential unemployment. With the policy rate at 3.5–3.75%, the Fed has limited room to maneuver. Recent quarter-point cuts aimed to prevent sharp labor market disruptions, but now the consensus leans toward pausing. For Fed Chair Jerome Powell, this is a challenging environment.

CME FedWatch data reinforces this view. Last week, the probability of a rate hold stood at 95%, now it’s over 97%. Powell’s recent remarks underline the difficulty of balancing inflation and unemployment risks simultaneously.

Crypto Markets Feel the Pressure

Uncertainty over interest rates continues to weigh on crypto assets. The total market capitalization has approached $2.99 trillion, but this modest rise offers little confidence. Bitcoin and major altcoins are trying to hold their ground, yet the market remains fragile.

Sharp gains in gold and silver signal that risk appetite is shifting toward safe havens. This trend tempers investor enthusiasm in Bitcoin and weakens crypto’s short-term narrative.

Polymarket data shows almost a 99% probability that the Fed will hold rates. This expectation favors directionless, jittery movements rather than sudden crypto rallies. Upward attempts exist, but their sustainability is limited.

What Derivatives Markets Indicate

Derivatives indicators suggest investors are not convinced about further upside. Demand for leveraged long positions is weak, while professional traders price higher probabilities of downside risks in options markets.

Bitcoin options’ delta skew reached 12% on Monday. Normally, this indicator fluctuates between -6% and +6%. This level shows put options are trading at a premium, reflecting strong hedging demand. The last time delta skew reached similar levels was December 1, 2025, when Bitcoin dropped from $91,500 to $83,900 in hours. This market memory helps explain today’s cautious stance.

Gold at Record, Bitcoin Behind

Concerns about a weaker U.S. dollar have boosted gold prices to record levels, with spot gold briefly hitting $5,100. Analysts are questioning whether “value-loss trades” are accelerating.

Bitcoin, however, has yet to follow this trend. Even as the S&P 500 rose 0.6% in a single day, Bitcoin remained subdued. This suggests the decline cannot be solely linked to U.S. financial risks. Broader confidence issues dominate the crypto market.

In summary, the Fed’s upcoming decision could increase short-term volatility. If rates remain on hold, the crypto market is likely to continue grappling with uncertainty rather than clear direction.

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The timing of the transfer is closely monitored, as it coincides with a renewed increase in market volatility. On-chain data suggests the whale could realize an unrealized profit of roughly $30.4 million from this move.

The transaction was confirmed through data shared by on-chain analytics platform Onchain Lens.

From Eight Years of Silence to OKX

An examination of the wallet’s transaction history shows that the whale’s last activity occurred nearly eight years ago. At the time, the total acquisition cost of the 400 BTC was approximately $4 million.

The holdings entered the wallet through two separate inflows of 200 BTC each, previously transferred from HTX. After years of inactivity, the entire balance was moved in a single transaction to an address associated with OKX. The transfer reportedly took place around 11 hours before it was publicly identified, raising speculation about a potential sell-side move.

What remains clear is that this marks the first time the whale has sent its long-term Bitcoin holdings directly to an exchange.

Why it matters

The reactivation of long-dormant wallets is widely viewed as a critical signal for market psychology. Transfers directly to exchanges often increase the probability of short-term liquidity expansion and selling pressure. While such moves do not always result in immediate sales, they tend to influence trader sentiment and risk appetite.

In addition, the stark contrast between the original cost basis and current valuation once again highlights Bitcoin’s long-term return profile through tangible on-chain data.

Dormant Whales Return Simultaneously

This development is not an isolated case. In recent days, several other previously inactive large holders have also re-entered the market.

A Bitcoin wallet dormant for nearly three years transferred 200 BTC to Binance, while another large investor withdrew 171 BTC from the same exchange. These opposing flows suggest that selling and accumulation strategies are unfolding simultaneously.

Rather than signaling panic, the data points toward a phase dominated by strategic portfolio repositioning.

Short Positions Add to Market Pressure

On-chain metrics also indicate that some large investors are increasing short exposure alongside spot selling. Recent reports show one whale offloading 255 BTC while expanding short positions across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana.

Since early December, large holders have sold approximately 36,500 BTC, representing a market value exceeding $3.3 billion. This activity, following recent sharp market swings, suggests that price discovery remains incomplete.

As uncertainty persists, further movements from large wallets are likely to remain a key factor shaping short-term market direction.

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Why Did MMT Drop? How Did Transfers Impact the Price?

According to data shared by Suiscan, a wallet identified as 0xe7cd…7a88a4 and linked to the Momentum team sent 38 million MMT to Binance on November 5 at 16:00 (UTC+8). The transferred tokens were worth approximately $45.6 million. These funds originated from the second-largest MMT holder, wallet 0x1b4d2…7355c8, which controls 18.57% of the total supply.

This major wallet distributed 89.476 million MMT to 12 different addresses between November 4 at 18:41 and November 5 at 00:12 (UTC+8). Some of these addresses later sent tokens to centralized exchanges (CEXs). The timing of the transfers, occurring simultaneously with the Binance listing, immediately drew attention across on-chain analytics platforms.

Price Surge and Crash After Binance Listing

MMT started trading on Binance at $0.10. Within 12 hours, the token surged above $4.40, and on some platforms, brief spikes above $10 were recorded. However, the rally was short-lived. Shortly after, MMT price fell by 86%, dropping to around $0.59. Trading volume quickly increased, resulting in heightened volatility.

Why Did MMT Crash? On-Chain Data Reveals Key Factors

Several on-chain indicators point to the reasons behind the sudden decline:

• The transfer of 38 million MMT to Binance created strong selling pressure.

• The movement of a large portion of the supply into exchanges weakened market depth and affected liquidity.

• After a rapid gain of over 1,300%, investors began taking profits.

• The distribution of more than 89 million MMT to multiple addresses increased circulating supply in a very short time.

These data show that the price drop was not solely speculative but closely tied to token inflow into exchanges, increased circulating supply, and profit-taking behavior.

Impact of Whale Wallets on Market Sentiment

On-chain analytics platforms confirmed detailed movements from the second-largest wallet holding 18.57% of the total supply. The transfer of substantial token amounts to centralized exchanges exerted immediate downward pressure on the price chart. This shifted investor focus directly onto these wallets and raised concerns over insider activity and supply manipulation.

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The three major transfers in 10 days total roughly $450 million in Bitcoin movements. Previous transfers were valued at $133.7 million and $268 million respectively. These large-scale moves have sparked speculation within the crypto community about Elon Musk’s market strategy.

Elon Musk and Bitcoin Strategy

On October 14, Elon Musk mentioned Bitcoin for the first time in years. He praised BTC’s actual energy source, signaling a shift from previous criticisms toward a more Bitcoin-friendly stance.

In 2022, SpaceX reduced its Bitcoin holdings by approximately 70%, likely due to the Terra-Luna crisis and FTX collapse impacting the crypto market. The latest transfers suggest Musk is either taking a cautious position against market volatility or strategically restructuring his Bitcoin holdings in preparation for a larger move.

Elon Musk’s Total Bitcoin Holdings

In addition to SpaceX, Elon Musk’s Tesla holds 11,509 BTC, valued at roughly $1.25 billion. Combined with SpaceX, Musk controls 18,767 BTC, worth around $2.04 billion. According to Arkham Intelligence, SpaceX’s Bitcoin portfolio alone totals 7,258 BTC, valued at approximately $790.95 million. These figures highlight Musk’s strategic management of both corporate and personal crypto assets.

BTC Price Volatility

Elon Musk’s SpaceX moves, combined with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish comments about a possible December rate cut, caused BTC to fall over 2% in just an hour, hitting $108,000. BTC dropped more than 4% in the last 24 hours, with the lowest and highest prices at $108,097 and $113,642 respectively. Trading volume remained stable, indicating cautious investor behavior.

SpaceX Bitcoin Transfers in the Last 10 Days:

• $133.7 million Bitcoin transfer

• $268 million Bitcoin transfer

• $31.33 million Bitcoin transfer

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The market remained below the critical resistance level of $3.09 trillion. If this level is not reclaimed, the market cap could fall further to $3.00 trillion. Failing to hold this support increases the potential for further losses. However, if the $3.09 trillion level is broken, the market value could rise to $3.16 trillion. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have put pressure on investors, maintaining uncertainty in market sentiment. 

Bitcoin Holds at $101,000 Support 

Bitcoin tested below $99,000 over the weekend due to the U.S.-Iran conflict. It quickly recovered to $101,102. If this level holds, Bitcoin could rise to $102,734, signaling potential recovery for the market. If it fails to stay above $100,000, the price could drop to $98,000. These critical levels represent significant risk points for investors. 

Additional Market Data 

In the last 24 hours, $875 million worth of liquidations occurred in the crypto market. This high liquidation volume indicates increased volatility and market risk. 

As Bitcoin tested below $99,000, major altcoins like Ethereum and Solana also experienced double-digit losses. Around 380,000 investors had to close their leveraged positions. Of these, $233 million were Bitcoin positions, and $175 million were Ethereum. A total of $304.03 million in positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours—$230.85 million in long and $73.18 million in short trades. The largest liquidations occurred in the BTC-USDT (OKX) pair at $4.06 million, ETH-USDT (Binance) at $2.96 million, and ETH-USDT (OKX) at $2.50 million. 

Geopolitical uncertainty is increasing market volatility and causing investors to act cautiously. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $101,850. 

THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE 

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About $3.3 billion worth of Bitcoin options and $546 million worth of Ethereum options will expire. The expiration of these contracts may lead to sudden changes in investor behavior. 

Put/Call Ratios and Maximum Pain Points Are Key 

The put/call ratio for Bitcoin options stands at 1.16, indicating a dominance of put options over calls. The maximum pain level for Bitcoin is $106,000 — the price where the most options contracts become worthless. 

On the Ethereum side, the put/call ratio is 0.68, with call positions leading. The maximum pain point for ETH is $2,600. Both assets were trading below these levels as of June 19, with Bitcoin around $105,000 and Ethereum just above $2,500. 

Options Expiry Alert

Tomorrow, about $3.9B in crypto options are set to expire on Deribit.$BTC: $3.3B notional | Put/Call: 1.16 | Max Pain: $106K$ETH: $546M notional | Put/Call: 0.68 | Max Pain: $2,600

BTC shows more balanced positioning near max pain, while ETH flows… pic.twitter.com/hBKVTcodeP

— Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) June 19, 2025

Strong Institutional Inflows Persist 

US-based Bitcoin ETFs recorded their eighth consecutive day of net inflows as of June 19. Ethereum also saw its second-largest inflow day of the year on June 18. These data points show sustained institutional interest and confidence in the market. 

Option expirations, especially near maximum pain points, play a critical role in determining price direction. Investors should be prepared for volatility. 

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This expectation led to a 1.2% loss in Bitcoin and the overall crypto market. The total crypto market cap dropped approximately 1.23% to $3.29 trillion. Although the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) announced in May were below expectations, the Fed maintains a cautious stance. For example, Ether fell 2.8% to $2,506.90, XRP declined 2.7% to $2.13. Cardano and Solana dropped 3–4%, Polygon decreased by 2.3%. Among meme tokens, Dogecoin lost over 3%, and $TRUMP declined more than 4%. 

Geopolitical factors also increase volatility. The Israel–Iran tension pushed oil prices up. This situation brings inflation expectations back on the agenda, pressuring risk assets. 

In Bitcoin, downside supports stand at $108,000 and critical resistance is at $112,000. Analysts, especially based on CME FedWatch data, do not expect any change in interest rates. 

Jerome Powell to Speak Today 

Despite political pressure from Donald Trump, the FOMC meeting will most likely conclude without an interest rate change. Inflation rose slightly from 2.3% to 2.4% in May. This limited increase, combined with a strong labor market, strengthens the likelihood that the Fed will continue its “wait and see” policy. On the other hand, rising oil prices and Israel–Iran tension indicate that inflationary pressures may increase. Jerome Powell is expected to highlight these global risks in his speech. 

Additionally, stablecoin regulation was approved in the US Senate; however, its impact has not yet eased the market in the short term. The market remains in a waiting pattern. 

Bitcoin miners are also noteworthy during this period. While coping with drought and energy costs, they are known to be preparing for new demand. The US-China trade war and Trump tariffs are causing structural changes in the mining hardware supply chain. However, detailed data has not yet been updated. Institutions are closely monitoring a possible increase in the M2 money supply. 

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