We will keep the stock market at an all-time high.

With this promise, he once again gives hope to those already in the market or considering entering, possibly triggering another upward move. However, investors still hold one major doubt and one crucial question: How realistic are these words? Looking at today’s economic landscape, it is quite clear that there is a significant gap between what is being said and what is actually happening.

What Changed When Donald Trump Took Office?

In 2025, Donald Trump made numerous statements about the economy and initiated several actions—many of which, so to speak, backfired and painted markets in red. Despite the negative impact of his trade tariffs and policies on many sectors, he insisted that the U.S. stock market was “stronger” and that his intention was to keep it elevated. He even emphasized that everyone should remember how U.S. markets reached record highs earlier this year. While some investors criticize Trump’s approach, could the so-called “Trump effect” actually have had a positive influence?

However, despite these claims, the markets have frequently experienced major instability. Starting from the early months of 2025, U.S. indexes suffered sharp declines due to imposed tariffs, global trade tensions, and ongoing economic uncertainty. In fact, double-digit losses were not uncommon.

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Can Donald Trump Really Keep the Market at Its Peak?

High market prices are not sustained by statements alone. Although remarks can create short-term upward or downward movements, real market direction is driven by the following factors:

• Economic Data
• Global Balances
• Corporate Earnings Reports
• Interest – Inflation Rates
• Global Trade

These variables are the true determinants of market direction. Therefore, when a leader says “I will keep the stock market at its peak,” it naturally raises significant, and often unanswered, questions.

Recently, margin debt reached an all-time high. Margin debt represents the amount of money investors borrow from brokerage firms through margin accounts. This indicator is often used to evaluate potential market tops and bottoms. When margin debt hits a record level and the markets also reach record highs, the situation is commonly described as a “reflex” move or even a “bubble.” Under such circumstances, how convincing can Trump’s claim really be?

Periods like these offer the potential for high profits but carry equally high risks. They cannot be sustained by a single political statement.

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According to data provided by the CME FedWatch tool, the target rate range could be lowered to 350–375 basis points, while the likelihood of keeping the current policy range of 375–400 basis points stands at 29%.

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Factors Strengthening Expectations

Statements made by New York Fed President John Williams indicate that short-term adjustments to interest rates may be possible, further boosting market expectations of a rate cut.

Data flow disruptions in the United States are creating uncertainty in the FED’s decision-making process. Although recent minutes suggest differing views within the Fed regarding a potential rate cut, the overall sentiment points toward a policy easing at the final meeting of the year.

A higher probability of a rate cut has positively reflected on Bitcoin and altcoin markets, increasing appetite for risk assets. However, market participants remain cautious in light of possible surprises from the Federal Reserve.

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In May, the U.S. agreed to reduce tariffs on China from 145% to 30%; in return, China agreed to cut tariffs on the U.S. from 125% to 10% as part of a temporary 90-day compromise. Although this comprehensive policy shift provided a temporary breather, the infrastructure remains unclear and negotiations continue for long-term solutions.

What Is Expected from the Talks?

The Stockholm talks that began on July 28 brought together high-level representatives from both the U.S. and China. Key figures such as Scott Bessent from the U.S. Treasury and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng participated in these discussions, which focused on shaping the draft details of trade agreements. During the negotiations, it is especially expected that the U.S. side will bring up special additional tariffs related to synthetic drugs (fentanyl) again.

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Positive Development:

• Major companies (such as Apple, Amazon) reacted positively in the markets thanks to this temporary relaxation. Significant increases were observed in Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq.

• For China, where alternatives to boost domestic demand are limited, such compromises have become an important tool for economic revival.

For Small Businesses:

• While this extension provides relief for some in the business world, small businesses are facing serious challenges such as planning uncertainty, inventory management, and cost forecasting. Critics argue that “working within temporary windows can impose a heavy burden on small businesses.”

If no agreement is reached, tariffs could quickly return to levels above 145%. This could lead to major disruptions in supply chains and global price increases. In the long term, a permanent solution is needed, and this extension essentially aims to strengthen the groundwork for constructive negotiation.

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Tariffs And Uncertainty Weigh On Policy Decisions

Throughout the speech, Powell emphasized the importance of observing the effects of recently implemented tariffs before making policy moves. “We don’t want to act before seeing their impact.” he said. “Without the tariffs, inflation would likely have declined further.”

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He also acknowledged that “uncertainty has increased,” and in such an environment, “nobody wants to rush down the rate cut path.”

Policy In A Good Place, Labor Market Still Solid

Powell stated that monetary policy must be forward-looking and currently stands in a strong position. Regarding the labor market, he noted, “The labor market is not crying out for a rate cut.”

He also pointed out that near-term inflation expectations have risen due to tariffs and reminded that “inflation remains above our 2% target.” In his words, “Waiting a few more months might lead to smarter decisions.”

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The stablecoin giant has launched XAUt0, an omnichain version of its gold-backed token XAUt, on TON (The Open Network), marking a new chapter in digital precious metals.

A New Standard in Gold Investing

Built on LayerZero’s “Omnichain Fungible Token” standard, XAUt0 enables seamless transfers across blockchains without using wrapping mechanisms or middlechains. This technical leap allows broader and more flexible access to digital gold.

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XAUt, available only on Ethereum, is currently the largest gold-backed stablecoin by market cap at $832 million, closely followed by Pax Gold at $811 million. Tether backs the token with over 7.7 tons of physical gold stored in a Swiss vault, according to its Q1 2025 attestation.

The move follows Tether’s launch of USDt on the TON network earlier in 2024 and mirrors the structure of USDT0, its omnichain dollar-pegged token that spans multiple chains through Optimism’s Superchain ecosystem.

Gold Prices Surge Amid Global Uncertainty

Gold prices have surged in 2025, driven largely by economic instability and escalating trade tensions. As of May 30, gold traded at $3,304 per ounce — a 29.5% increase from the previous year.

Gold ETFs have also performed strongly, with the top eight funds gaining over 25% year-to-date. Tether’s XAUt0 is set to compete with such instruments, offering digital asset investors a new way to access gold’s stability in turbulent times.

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Federal Reserve Discusses Inflation and Tariff Risks 

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) made significant decisions during its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on May 6-7, 2025. Officials highlighted that tariffs could increase inflation, creating a challenging dilemma for interest rate policy. The minutes emphasized a cautious approach amid rising economic uncertainties. The Fed kept the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%-4.5%. Officials noted that economic growth remains solid, but risks of labor market weakening have increased. While consumers continue spending, concerns about persistent inflation have grown. Additionally, policy uncertainties are complicating the goals of full employment and low inflation. 

The Fed expressed concerns about variability in trade policies. Tariffs between the U.S. and China eased after the meeting, with both sides suspending heavy taxes for a 90-day negotiation period. This supported a recovery on Wall Street. However, bond yields continued to rise. Powell defended the Fed’s independence against Trump’s pressure for rate cuts. The meeting also reviewed the Fed’s five-year policy framework. Officials evaluated the “flexible average inflation targeting” strategy, noting it could be ineffective during major inflationary shocks. No plans to change the inflation target were announced. 

Trade Policies and Financial Stability Risks 

The Fed discussed the volatile policies of the Trump administration. While tariffs were suspended, they were not fully lifted. Officials noted that bond market volatility could threaten financial stability. Rising Treasury yields may have long-term economic impacts. The risk of both inflation and unemployment rising was emphasized, potentially forcing the Fed into a tough choice between tight monetary policy and supporting growth. Additionally, the Fed renewed dollar and currency swap lines to support global financial stability, aiming to address liquidity needs. 

Post-meeting, Trump delayed 145% tariffs on China, impacting bond yields and recession expectations. Consequently, markets do not expect a rate cut until the September meeting. The Fed is awaiting greater clarity due to policy uncertainties. Officials acknowledged the increasingly complex economic outlook. Inflation nearing the 2% target is making the Fed’s decisions more challenging. Financial market volatility is heightening recession risks. The Fed aims to both control inflation and support growth. 

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With this remark, Powell reaffirmed that political pressure has no influence on the Fed’s monetary policy. He also emphasized that “the President’s calls for rate cuts do not affect our job in any way.”

Inflation Uncertainty and Tariff Impact

Another critical focus of the meeting was inflation and the impact of tariffs. Powell said, “The core inflation picture looks good, but we can’t say how long it will last.” He added that there is significant uncertainty around tariffs and their longer-term implications.

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“We haven’t yet seen major economic effects from tariff data,” Powell said, while warning that if the sharp increases in tariffs continue, “we could see higher inflation and lower employment.”

He also noted, “According to survey participants, inflation expectations are now being shaped by tariffs. So far, tariffs have been significantly larger than expected.”

Rate Cut Signals Without a Timeline

Although Powell left the door open for future rate cuts, he refrained from committing to any specific timeline. Regarding market expectations of two cuts in March, he responded, “We can’t make that prediction right now; we need to wait until June.”

One of Powell’s key remarks was:

“There are conditions this year where rate cuts could be appropriate.” He added, “When things evolve and it’s appropriate, we can move quickly. But now is the time to wait before changing policy.”

These statements suggest that the Federal Reserve is not rushing into decisions but remains prepared to act swiftly if economic data requires it.

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“If you’re mining Bitcoin, you already understand why this asset is valuable long-term,” Glover stated. “You don’t want to sell it.”

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This debt-based approach is similar to strategies used by companies like MicroStrategy, which raise capital through debt and equity to acquire BTC and profit from the currency divergence.

Rising Competition, Falling Margins

The BTC mining hashprice, a key profitability metric, has plummeted due to increasing network difficulty. As more powerful machines are deployed, costs rise and profit margins shrink.

Adding to the pressure, U.S. trade tariffs on tech imports are inflating prices of essential mining equipment like ASICs. These conditions threaten the viability of smaller operators in the sector.

In March 2025, miners collectively sold 40% of their mined supply—marking a trend reversal since the April 2024 halving and the highest monthly liquidation rate since October 2024.

BTC-Backed Loans May Be A Lifeline

In such a climate, Bitcoin-backed loans could be a strategic lifeline. They offer operational liquidity without sacrificing long-term asset value.

As Glover noted, “If you believe BTC will rise, why sell it now and lose future upside?”

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Is Inflation on Target or Still a Concern?

Powell emphasized that long-term inflation expectations remain in line with the 2% target, but he did not express clear optimism for the short-term outlook. Highlighting the impact of tariffs on inflation, Powell stated, “We need a few more months to assess the effects of tariff inflation,” signaling that uncertainty will persist through the summer.

In summary: The Fed is not rushing to cut rates until it sees a “sustained decline” in inflation. This suggests that the market’s expectation of a “soft pivot” may be delayed.

New Scenario for 2025: Growth Expectations Down, Inflation Up

The Fed sharply revised down its 2025 growth forecast while raising inflation expectations. This shift indicates increasing uncertainty in the markets. Powell’s statement that “Policy is not on a pre-set course” shows that the Fed remains flexible and data-dependent.

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What does this mean? If the U.S. economy remains strong, interest rates may stay high for longer. However, if the labor market weakens, the Fed will likely take action accordingly.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Rally!

Following the Fed’s decision, Bitcoin quickly rebounded from $84,000 and surged past $85,000, gaining 1.22%. This indicates that investors are shifting toward risk-hedging assets like cryptocurrencies.

Ethereum, meanwhile, rose from $2,017 to $2,067, marking a 2.22% increase. Analysts note that the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady and Powell’s uncertainty-driven rhetoric are supporting short-term upside momentum in digital assets.

How Does the Fed’s Wait-and-See Approach Impact Markets?

Powell’s remark that “The economy is strong, but uncertainty is unusually high” clearly illustrates that markets have yet to find a clear direction. This could result in:

• Capital outflows from emerging markets as investors seek safer assets.
• Reduced foreign investor interest in Borsa İstanbul, negatively impacting liquidity.
• Higher short-term opportunities in the crypto market, but also increased volatility in the mid-term.

Key Insights and Market Commentary

• According to WSJ, the Fed cut its 2025 growth forecast while raising inflation expectations, potentially accelerating the “risk-off” sentiment in global markets.
• Powell pointed out that the labor market remains strong and is not a source of inflationary pressure. However, consumer spending is showing signs of slowing, which could influence future monetary policy decisions.
• The FOMC removed the phrase “Risks to inflation and employment are balanced” from its statement, signaling a more cautious Fed stance on economic risks.

The Fed’s decision to hold rates was widely expected, but the revised forecasts and Powell’s comments have shifted markets into a more cautious mode. Powell frequently used the word “uncertainty,” urging investors to stay alert.

Bitcoin and Ethereum are gaining traction as alternative assets amid uncertainty. However, until the Fed’s policy becomes clearer, market volatility is likely to continue.

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