Post-Cycle Bottom: VanEck’s Perspective

Van Eck told CNBC that Bitcoin prices could gradually recover in 2026. He noted that in recent months, the main driver of BTC’s price was not the coin’s fundamentals but the four-year halving cycle.

“Bitcoin rose for three consecutive years and saw a major drop in the fourth. 2026 is that fourth year. I think we are close to the bottom. No need to overcomplicate it,” said Van Eck.

Analysts remain divided: some point to institutional ETF demand, macroeconomic factors, and regulatory developments, while cycle proponents maintain the classic model is still valid.

Geopolitical Tension and Market Reaction

The recent recovery coincided with rising geopolitical risks as the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran. According to Van Eck, during such uncertain periods, crypto payment systems become critical tools for transferring funds outside the traditional banking system. The attacks undermined trust in local banks, leading funds to flow via crypto networks in Dubai and the UAE.

“In a potential Iran settlement, how will money be transferred? Regions like the UAE and Dubai are crypto-friendly. Using crypto instead of Iranian banks makes sense,” Van Eck explained.

Futures, Open Interest, and Institutional Activity

Demand for Bitcoin futures has dropped to its lowest since 2024. CME open interest shows that major institutions have not exited the market.

• After testing $63,000 on Saturday, BTC rose 10% to $70,000.
• Total futures open interest fell to $32 billion, down 20% from a month ago.
• Leverage demand has significantly decreased since the all-time high of $126,200 in October 2025.
• Options premiums are around 0.7, with put demand lower than call demand, indicating stable conditions aside from short-term stress.

Institutional Adoption Continues

Despite seemingly intimidating derivatives data, the other side is encouraging. While Bitcoin’s performance against gold and equities is low, spot BTC ETFs see average daily volumes exceeding $3 billion. Public companies such as Strategy (MSTR US), MARA Holdings (MARA US), XXI (XXI US), and Metaplanet (MPLTF US) hold over $79 billion in BTC on-chain.

Countries including Bhutan, El Salvador, and the UAE continue investing in Bitcoin, demonstrating that institutional adoption is far from zero and market confidence has not entirely eroded.

Bottom and Market Resilience

Although the absolute bottom of the current cycle is unclear, Bitcoin’s fixed supply and the $1.4 trillion crypto market demonstrate resilience. Despite selling pressure and geopolitical chaos, the ecosystem remains standing. Whether $60,000 marks the ultimate bottom will be revealed over time.

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What is Bitcoin Pizza Day? 

On May 22, 2010, Laszlo Hanyecz purchased two pizzas for 10,000 BTC. At the time, these BTC were worth just $40. However, today, that amount exceeds $1 billion. In 2025, BTC prices reached as high as $111,800, highlighting its remarkable value increase. 

Key Milestones in Bitcoin’s History 

1. BTC Inception (2009) 
   The first BTC block was mined, marking the start of the decentralized digital currency era. 
2. BTC Reaches $1 (2011) 
   BTC hit a value of $1 for the first time, beginning to attract attention. 
3. Mt. Gox Hack (2014) 
   The world’s largest Bitcoin exchange, Mt. Gox, was hacked, losing approximately $450 million worth of BTC and subsequently declaring bankruptcy. This event was a major wake-up call for crypto security. 
4. BTC Surge to $20,000 and Beyond (2017) 
   BTC soared to $20,000 by the end of 2017. However, it later plummeted to $3,200 within the year, serving as a significant warning for investors. 
5. Rise of Institutional Investments (2020-2021) 
   Major companies like Tesla and MicroStrategy began purchasing BTC, signaling its acceptance in the corporate world. 
6. Taproot Upgrade (2024) 
   The Bitcoin network implemented the Taproot upgrade, enhancing privacy and transaction speed. This development showcased Bitcoin’s technological advancement. 

Bitcoin Pizza Day represents the first real-world use of BTC. Additionally, events like the Mt. Gox hack and the 2017 price crash are critical milestones in BTC journey. These developments demonstrate that BTC continues to grow in the financial world. In 2015, the Bitcoin network was introduced to the Lightning Network concept, aiming to enable microtransactions and improve scalability. In 2021, El Salvador became the first country to adopt BTC as legal tender, marking a historic state-level adoption. In 2022, the use of cryptocurrencies expanded with NFT and DeFi projects. In 2023, several countries began testing central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). All these developments prove that BTC is not just an investment vehicle but a global digital financial system.

15 years ago, Laszlo Hanyecz, a Floridian programmer, bought 2 Papa John's pizzas for 10,000 $BTC. Today, those pizzas would be valued at over $1.07B today.

Happy #Bitcoin Pizza Day, everyone! pic.twitter.com/H7oeBTEIJM

— CoinGecko (@coingecko) May 22, 2025

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The El Salvador Treasury acquired 7 Bitcoin (BTC) worth over 650,000$ in the seven days leading up to April 27, according to blockchain data shared by the country’s Bitcoin Office.

Rodrigo Valdes, Director of the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department, confirmed during an April 26 press briefing that El Salvador is still complying with the agreement prohibiting Bitcoin accumulation by the government sector. “The El Salvador program is not just about Bitcoin, it involves deeper structural reforms, governance improvements, and enhanced transparency,” Valdes said.

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In December 2024, El Salvador signed a deal with the IMF for a 1.4 billion dollar loan, which required the government to drop Bitcoin’s legal tender status and halt additional BTC purchases.

Flexible Interpretation Leaves Room for Bitcoin Buys

Intergovernmental blockchain advisor and author Anndy Lian explained that the IMF deal might allow non-governmental entities to continue acquiring Bitcoin. “The flexible interpretation allows Bitcoin purchases through non-public sector assets or reclassified investments,” Lian said.

This strategy enables El Salvador to maintain its Bitcoin-friendly image while meeting IMF funding requirements. Lian also emphasized that El Salvador’s experience offers critical lessons for other nations considering crypto adoption.

El Salvador’s case highlights the tension between financial innovation and traditional economic frameworks, underlining the importance of strong regulatory frameworks and robust state capacity to withstand international financial pressures.

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This data, reported by local outlet El Mundo using figures from the Central Reserve Bank of El Salvador, indicates that most registered providers have failed to meet regulatory requirements under the nation’s Bitcoin Law.

Strict Bitcoin Law Leaves Firms Inactive

El Salvador’s regulatory framework for Bitcoin companies includes Anti-Money Laundering (AML) compliance, accurate financial reporting, and a customized cybersecurity program suited to each company’s operations. At least 22 non-operational firms have reportedly failed to comply with the majority of these conditions.

In total, 89% of companies on the official registry have not fulfilled the necessary legal obligations to remain active.

Some Companies Still Compliant with National Standards

Despite the setbacks, a handful of firms, such as the government-supported Chivo Wallet, Crypto Trading & Investment, and Fintech Américas, have managed to meet the compliance criteria and maintain their active status.

Bitcoin’s Role in El Salvador’s Economic Plan Faces Uncertainty

El Salvador adopted Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021, positioning it alongside the US dollar as part of President Nayib Bukele’s bold economic vision. However, recent developments suggest a shift in policy.

The country secured a $1.4 billion loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which includes a provision to scale back Bitcoin initiatives. According to the agreement, taxes must now be paid in US dollars, and public institutions are to limit their use of Bitcoin.

Although the IMF has called on El Salvador to halt public sector Bitcoin acquisitions, President Bukele has asserted that the government will continue to accumulate Bitcoin, casting doubt on the IMF deal’s implications.

Further fueling speculation, a new law altering Bitcoin’s legal tender status is reportedly set to take effect on April 30, raising questions about the future of Bitcoin within El Salvador’s public and private sectors.

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El Salvador’s Bitcoin Success Sets an Example for Argentina

El Salvador’s financial success in adopting Bitcoin has drawn the attention of other high-inflation economies. In May, the Argentine government began working to learn from El Salvador’s Bitcoin adoption experience and other cryptocurrency activities.

The Argentine Securities Commission (CNV) held talks with El Salvador’s National Digital Assets Commission (CNAD) on crypto adoption and regulation.

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At the meeting, CNV President Roberto Silva said that they want to strengthen ties with the Republic of El Salvador and will therefore explore the possibility of signing cooperation agreements with them. Additionally, Argentina passed registration requirements for crypto firms in April and has begun actively experimenting with cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin-friendly politician Javier Milei becoming Argentina’s president in late 2023.

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The National Bitcoin Office of El Salvador (ONBTC) will provide training and certification in Bitcoin for the country’s public officials.

The Central American country of El Salvador, which has taken a Bitcoin-friendly approach, has launched a training program to provide public officials with knowledge on strategic management and public policy regarding the use of Bitcoin as a legal tender. The 160-hour virtual and asynchronous training program, “Public Administration Certification 1,” consists of seven modules, with each module detailing various concepts, laws, skills, and management issues related to the use of Bitcoin as a legal tender.

El Salvador Creating a Bitcoin-Ready National Workforce

ONBTC Director Stacy Herbert believes that training public officials will have an “exponential impact” on El Salvador’s Bitcoin-focused economy. With this belief, she plans to announce more training initiatives. Herbert noted that these projects are commitments to El Salvador’s long-term success and low time preference for Bitcoin (and technology) policy.

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The Bitcoin certification effort is being led by the School of Innovation in Public Administration (ESIAP), which was inaugurated by President Nayib Bukele in August 2021.

According to ONBTC, the curriculum is specifically designed to strengthen the standard of excellence in governance and public administration in El Salvador.

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This investment is considered the largest private investment in El Salvador’s history and is seen as a critical step towards the realization of Bitcoin City, which has garnered considerable attention from the global crypto community. President Nayib Bukele, who has been a strong advocate for Bitcoin and blockchain technology, shared the news on social media, highlighting the transformative potential of the project.

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The modernization of the Acajutla port and the activation of the La Unión port are expected to boost economic activity and attract further investments to the region. This infrastructure upgrade is pivotal for the success of Bitcoin City, which is envisioned as a hub for innovation and technological advancement in the cryptocurrency space.

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According to the strategy advisor of investment management company VanEck, Gabor Gurbacs, El Salvador could become a financial center in the Americas, following in the footsteps of Singapore. Gurbacs emphasized that El Salvador has the potential to become the Singapore of the Americas, stating that this country could assume a pioneering role in economic growth with new capital investments and immigration.

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The economic rise of El Salvador has become more apparent with the coming to power of the country’s leader Nayib Bukele. Under Bukele’s leadership, El Salvador’s government bonds provided an impressive return of 70% compared to other emerging markets this year.

The country is drawing attention in the crypto world with its declaration of Bitcoin as a legal tender and innovations such as the Chivo Wallet. It also took a strong step into the crypto ecosystem with initiatives like the Bitcoin mining operation Volcano Energy and the appointment of author Dr. Saifedean Ammous to the National Bitcoin Office.

It is believed that El Salvador’s evolving economy, investor-friendly policies, and moves to eliminate taxes on technology will be a significant determinant of its future financial success.

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