ETH Futures and Liquidations

Liquidations in ETH futures reached $224 million, particularly on days when the price fell by 9%. On the options side, trading remained relatively balanced from Monday through Saturday, but dynamics shifted quickly on Tuesday. The put-to-call volume ratio jumped to 2.2x, showing investors suddenly seeking downside protection. While some may have sold puts to bet on a short-term rebound, the broader market appears bracing for further volatility.

The options delta skew was at 18% on Tuesday, meaning puts carried a clear premium. This lopsided demand highlights that hedging is the priority. Confidence remains low, even with ETH sitting 63% below its all-time high.

Onchain Activity and TVL

Ethereum’s total value locked (TVL) dropped to $51 billion, the lowest level since May 2025. With fewer deposits flowing into DApps, network fees have fallen to $13.7 million over the past 30 days, well below the $33 million average seen at the end of 2025. Investors remain concerned that ETH demand may not recover in the short term.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin’s recent $7 million worth of ETH sales did little to boost sentiment. In January, he earmarked 16,384 ETH from his personal holdings for privacy-focused technology, open-source hardware, and secure software systems. Still, the optics of the move added pressure to an already fragile market psychology.

ETF Outflows and Institutional Impact

Outflows from ETH ETFs further weighed on investor confidence. U.S.-listed ETH ETFs have seen $405 million in net outflows since February 11, pushing total assets under management down to $12.4 billion. This suggests waning institutional interest. Meanwhile, gold prices surpassed $5,150 during the same period, with gold ETFs attracting $822 million in inflows (week ending February 20, gold.org).

ETH and BTC Correlation

Weak onchain and derivatives data alone do not dictate the market, but whales and market makers appear to be preparing for further downside. ETH remains tightly linked to Bitcoin, with the 20-day correlation staying above 95% for the past three weeks.

The drop to $1,800 has heightened uncertainty among investors. The market is still trying to identify the real drivers behind this crypto bear trend, prompting loss-taking. As long as professional traders remain cautious, the odds of ETH sliding further remain on the table until derivatives metrics stabilize.

Key Takeaways

Price data underscores the market’s fragility. ETH futures liquidations during the recent drop reached $224 million, and onchain activity hit a 12-month low. The put-to-call ratio rose to 2.2x, while delta skew remained at 18%, highlighting the market’s focus on downside protection.

Total value locked (TVL) fell to $51 billion, with network fees hovering at $13.7 million, reflecting stagnant trading activity. Spot ETFs recorded $405 million in outflows, signaling muted institutional interest. Additionally, ETH’s correlation with Bitcoin remains above 95%, with ongoing market uncertainty and cautious traders keeping further downside risk alive.

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Since the October peak, the ongoing decline has wiped approximately $1.2 trillion from the total market value, with losses exceeding 30% in the past seven days. However, this pullback cannot be attributed to a single headline.

Whales and Institutional Selling Pressure

The first breakdown comes from large wallets. Major investors and large wallets hold 68% of BTC supply. In just the past eight days, whale wallets have sold 81,068 BTC. Small wallets are buying, but the overall impact remains limited. Historically, this combination signals early stages of a bear market cycle.

Moreover, it’s not only investors—miners have also joined the selling side. Mining companies like Marathon Digital have transferred millions of BTC to exchanges. MARA and RIOT shares fell 14–18%, increasing selling pressure and straining market liquidity. These movements create a “death spiral” effect on investor psychology, also affecting gold, silver, and treasury assets.

Options and Expiry Dates

On February 6, more than 32,000 BTC options expired on Deribit. With a nominal value of $2.1 billion, this created significant volatility in the options market. Put option volume exceeded calls, increasing downside pressure; BTC’s implied volatility fell from 90 to 69 within hours.

But here’s the other side. The maximum drop price remained high at $80,000, signaling a potential short-term rebound. Investors are tracking macro indicators, ETF flows, and overall market sentiment, expecting BTC to consolidate between $65,000 and $70,000.

ETF Outflows and Market Perception

Another structural shift occurred on the ETF front. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $1.2 billion in net outflows over the last three trading days. An additional $434 million was withdrawn in just two days. BlackRock’s IBIT fund led with a $175 million outflow, while Fidelity, Grayscale, Bitwise, and Ark 21Shares moved in a similar direction.

Interestingly, IBIT trading volume hit a record 284 million shares on the same day, representing over $10 billion in nominal value. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas described this volume as “extremely brutal” as the price dropped 13%.

The charts show the decline. But seeing red on screen is another story.

At the same time, declines in tech stocks and rising AI investments affected investor psychology. Amazon, Qualcomm, and other giants increased spending, while software and semiconductor sectors faced heightened risks.

Additionally, Trump’s harsh reaction to the potential Fed chair appointment of Kevin Warsh and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s statement, “We do not have the authority to rescue Bitcoin,” reinforced caution among institutional investors.

In Summary: Bitcoin’s sharp decline is not the result of a single event. Whale sales, options expiry, chain liquidations, ETF outflows, and weakness in tech stocks all played a role simultaneously.

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CryptoQuant Bitcoin Analysis: Demand is Weakening

CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno stated, “If Bitcoin fails to hold above $100,000, the risk of a drop to $72,000 becomes more likely.” He attributes this primarily to the lack of recovery in demand after the record liquidation on October 10, where $20 billion worth of leveraged positions were wiped out.

Capital outflows from U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, a negative Coinbase premium, and declining spot demand are reinforcing this downward pressure. Market sentiment has also deteriorated, with the CryptoQuant Bull-Bear Score Index dropping to 20, signaling strong bearish momentum.

ETF data further reflects this weakness. As of November 4, Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $577.74 million, while Ethereum ETFs saw $219.37 million in outflows. In contrast, Solana spot ETFs recorded $14.83 million in net inflows — their sixth consecutive day of positive movement. This indicates a shift from large-cap assets toward riskier alternatives.

How Far Could Bitcoin Fall?

Bitcoin has dropped more than 5.2% in the last 24 hours, trading around $100,800. The GMCI 30 Index declined over 9% in a single day, pointing to a broad risk-off sentiment in the crypto market.

Meanwhile, Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick referred to the correction as “inevitable” but noted that Bitcoin could recover if macroeconomic conditions turn favorable.

Factors Increasing Market Pressure

• Fund outflows from crypto ETFs

• Negative Coinbase spot premium

• Global risk aversion and interest rate uncertainty

• Weak demand and long-term holders selling

Is the $72,000 Scenario Permanent?

Gerry O’Shea, Head of Market Insights at Hashdex, highlighted rising volatility due to interest rate decisions, credit market stress, and equity valuations. However, despite the current drawdown, he emphasized that the long-term outlook for BTC remains intact.

Continued institutional adoption, strong ETF inflows throughout the year, and expectations that the Federal Reserve may end tightening could pave the way for new all-time highs. While $100,000 acts as a psychological support, Bitcoin’s long-term investment narrative remains unchanged.

Short-Term Risk, Long-Term Opportunity

If Bitcoin loses the $100,000 support zone, the risk of a move toward $72,000 strengthens. However, on-chain data, institutional demand, and liquidity indicators suggest that new highs remain possible in the medium to long term. While the current decline fuels fear, CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin analysis clearly defines a strategic decision point for investors.

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Macro Shocks and Government Impact

ISM US Manufacturing PMI for October came in at 48.7, below forecasts, marking the eighth consecutive month of contraction in the sector. The prolonged U.S. government shutdown, combined with cautious comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding a potential rate cut, pushed the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) above 100 and kept the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.1%. Since Bitcoin and crypto prices usually move inversely to DXY and Treasury yields, these macro factors contributed to heavy selling pressure in the crypto market.

Whale Selling and Institutional Reactions

Whales and long-term holders have offloaded nearly $50 billion in BTC since October. Recent events, including the $130 million Balancer hack and the XUSD de-peg, further dampened whale sentiment. On-chain data shows active selling of ASTER, ETH, DOGE, XRP, and PEPE by major holders. Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded net outflows for the fourth consecutive day, signaling bearish sentiment among institutional investors.

Hindenburg Omen Warnings and Liquidations

The Hindenburg Omen flashed twice at the end of October and once at the start of November, signaling a potential “serious decline within the next 40 days,” according to Bloomberg. This was the first appearance since March 3, 2025, which preceded a 20% U.S. market reversion triggered by President Trump’s new ‘emergency power’ tariffs. Historically, the indicator has flagged the 1987, 2000, 2007, and 2015 stock market crashes, making it popular among non-mainstream analysts. However, it is not a guarantee; while it highlights market risk and discrepancies, downturns do not always follow.

Coinglass data shows over $1.5 billion in liquidations within the last 24 hours, affecting 329K traders. A single BTCUSDT liquidation reached $47.87 million. These high-leverage liquidations are fueling further volatility and caution among investors.

Bullet List: 5 Key Reasons Behind Today’s Crypto Market Crash

1. Macro shocks from US manufacturing weakness and government shutdown

2. Whale and long-term holder selling pressure

3. Outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs

4. Hindenburg Omen warnings signaling potential further declines

5. Over $1.5 billion in high-leverage liquidations

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$1.27 Billion Outflow from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs 

After weeks of positive inflows, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw a combined outflow of $1.27 billion. Analysts say this sudden reversal, driven by institutional portfolio rebalancing and macroeconomic uncertainties, triggered broader selling in spot and derivatives markets. This increased selling pressure caused prices to fall rapidly. 

$23 Billion Options Expiry and Rising Volatility 

On September 26, approximately $22.3 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts expired. Investors closed positions en masse, increasing market volatility. Analysts note that large traders often pushed prices toward “maximum pain” levels — $110,000 for Bitcoin and $3,800 for Ethereum — a strategy that can trigger panic among smaller investors. 

Strong Economic Data and Investor Concerns 

U.S. Q2 GDP came in at 3.8%, above expectations of 3.3%. While strong economic data is positive in the long term, it negatively impacted crypto investors in the short term. The likelihood of an interest rate cut decreased, prompting investors to exit risk assets and intensifying market pressure. 

High Liquidations in Ethereum and Bitcoin 

The market drop, combined with leveraged trades and profit-taking, led to over $1 billion in liquidations. In the past 24 hours, 402,000 investors were liquidated — the largest loss since March. Ethereum led the decline, with over $600 million in liquidations. 

U.S. Government Shutdown Fears 

If Congress fails to pass the budget, the U.S. government could shut down on October 1. With a 67% likelihood of closure, investors have become more cautious. Historically, shutdowns have prompted sales in risky assets, leading to sharp declines in both crypto and stock markets. 

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During this period, total assets under management (AUM) declined to $146.48 billion. This figure represents roughly 6.46% of Bitcoin’s market capitalization. Fidelity’s FBTC led the outflows with a $331.42 million redemption by investors. 

ARK Invest’s ARKB product followed closely with a $327.93 million withdrawal. Grayscale’s GBTC recorded $66.79 million in losses, while BlackRock’s IBIT saw a relatively minor $2.58 million outflow. 

Despite the decline, trading volumes across spot Bitcoin ETFs remained strong. The total volume reached $6.13 billion, with BlackRock’s IBIT contributing $4.54 billion alone. This indicates continued investor interest despite the volatility. 

Ether ETFs End 20-Day Inflow Streak with $152M Outflow 

Meanwhile, spot Ether ETFs ended their longest-ever inflow streak on Friday, following 20 consecutive trading days of net inflows. That day, the sector recorded $152.26 million in total outflows. As a result, Ether ETF AUM dropped to $20.11 billion. 

This amount equals about 4.70% of Ethereum’s market cap. Grayscale’s ETHE led the withdrawals with a $47.68 million outflow. Bitwise’s ETHW product followed with a $40.30 million reduction, and Fidelity’s FETH recorded a $6.17 million decline. 

On the other hand, BlackRock’s ETHA remained flat for the day, reporting no inflows or outflows. Its assets under management held steady at $10.71 billion. 

Across all Ether ETFs, total trading volume hit $2.26 billion. Grayscale’s ETHE contributed the most, with $288.96 million in daily volume, reflecting ongoing market volatility. 

Institutional Demand Rises: Ethereum Accumulation Accelerates 

According to a recent report by Standard Chartered, institutional investors have increased their Ethereum purchases. Since early June, crypto treasury firms have acquired roughly 1% of Ethereum’s circulating supply. 

This steady accumulation, combined with consistent inflows into U.S. spot Ether ETFs, has become a key driver of Ethereum’s recent price rally. The bank projects that ETH could surpass $4,000 by year-end. 

Meanwhile, analysts highlight staking and DeFi participation as added incentives for corporate holdings. They believe that Ethereum’s share in institutional portfolios could grow significantly—possibly reaching up to 10% of total supply over time. 

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Bitcoin Derivatives and ETF Outflows Raise Confidence Concerns 

On Friday, Bitcoin fell to $114,013 and traded at $113,383. This decline triggered $200 million in liquidations of leveraged long positions, damaging trust in BTC derivatives markets. Moreover, prices have failed to hold above $120,000 for three consecutive weeks, leading to a loss of confidence among investors. 

Normally, monthly Bitcoin futures trade at a 5–10% premium over spot prices. The current 6% premium is the lowest in the past four weeks, indicating a decline in demand for leveraged bullish positions. While institutional interest remains high, market confidence is visibly lower. 

On July 31, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $115 million, ending a five-day streak of net inflows. This further impacted investor sentiment. Meanwhile, Strategy (MSTR) announced a $4.2 billion stock offering on Thursday, which could help prevent large-scale Bitcoin sales and stabilize the derivatives market. 

Bitcoin’s Correlation with Equities Increases 

Bitcoin is only 7% below its record high of $123,182 from mid-July. Meanwhile, gold prices remain steady around $3,350. Once viewed as digital gold, Bitcoin has recently shown a strong correlation with equities amid global trade tensions. This correlation has risen above 70% over the past three weeks. 

As a result, Bitcoin now behaves more like a high-risk tech stock rather than a safe-haven asset. Its market capitalization is comparable to that of Amazon and Google, highlighting the impact of U.S. tariff disputes and increased money supply on financial markets. 

Investors have shifted to cash and short-term Treasury bonds due to a weakening labor market. Demand for 1-year U.S. Treasury notes reached a three-month high, driven by revised employment data and an increase in July’s unemployment rate to 4.2%. 

BTC Options Between Neutral and Bearish Sentiment 

It’s possible to monitor whether Bitcoin whales and market makers are reducing their leveraged long positions via the options market. In bearish conditions, put options typically carry a 6% or higher premium over call options. Currently, this premium difference is around 5%. 

The delta skew of options has shifted from bullish to neutral-to-bearish since July 18. Additionally, the cost of protecting against a drop below the $114,000 support level has risen. This indicates decreasing confidence in Bitcoin’s ability to hold that level.

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According to Lookonchain data, the selloff included 2,373 ETH worth $8.32 million, 7.76 million ENA worth $4.62 million, and 38.86 billion PEPE tokens valued at around $414,700. The move came shortly after Bitcoin’s price dropped to $112,731 within 24 hours, signaling that Hayes anticipated the dip in advance. 

Meanwhile, Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, stated that Bitcoin has entered the third major profit-taking phase in its current bull cycle. Historically, such phases often mark a correction period that precedes a renewed upward trend. 

Arthur Hayes(@CryptoHayes) sold 2,373 $ETH($8.32M), 7.76M $ENA($4.62M) and 38.86B $PEPE($414.7K) in the past 6 hours.https://t.co/1HymJRPhcj pic.twitter.com/MoJNKUjJaQ

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) August 2, 2025

Strategic Pullback or Simple Profit-Taking? 

Hayes’ decision appears at odds with his previous bullish outlook. He had predicted Ethereum would eventually reach $10,000, while consistently advocating for rapid altcoin adoption. The recent divestment could suggest a more cautious repositioning rather than a complete shift in sentiment. 

Interestingly, just weeks prior, Hayes had acquired ENA tokens worth $1.5 million at lower prices. This indicates he remains active in early-stage projects, maintaining a broader long-term crypto investment strategy. Despite the selloff, his confidence in the market’s growth potential seems intact. 

In addition, it’s not just Arthur Hayes adjusting positions. Institutional players are also retreating. Spot Bitcoin ETFs witnessed $812 million in net outflows—the second-largest single-day withdrawal on record. Fidelity’s FBTC fund led the exodus with a $331 million pullback. 

Spot Ethereum ETFs also reported notable outflows, reflecting broader investor caution. This trend suggests risk appetite is decreasing and that investors are bracing for further market volatility. 

Global Headwinds Build as Hayes Waits on the Sidelines 

Hayes’ recent sell decisions might also reflect macroeconomic factors rather than crypto-specific concerns. The White House has announced new tariffs targeting over 60 countries, set to take effect on August 7. The U.S. Federal Reserve warns this could drive inflation higher. Hayes had previously cautioned investors about geopolitical shocks creating heightened volatility. 

Thus, his selloff—particularly in ETH and PEPE—may not signal a bearish reversal, but rather a temporary repositioning. Hayes appears to be stepping back from short-term turbulence while staying invested in the long-term potential of select altcoins. 

This approach reinforces a fundamental principle in investing: risk management remains critical, even in bullish markets.

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While spot Bitcoin ETFs showed strong accumulation in previous weeks, this trend has recently reversed. This change indicates investors are taking profits. Meanwhile, market volatility suggests a short-term risk of a price decline for Bitcoin. 

According to Glassnode data, the number of active unique addresses on the Bitcoin network has also decreased. The continuously declining address count over the past seven days signals market stagnation and weak demand. At yesterday’s close, the active address count hit a weekly low of 721,086. 

When combined with capital outflows from institutional investors and the drop in individual trading activity, the likelihood of a short-term BTC price correction strengthens. 

Spot Bitcoin ETF Outflows Shake Institutional Confidence 

Net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs indicate a reduction in institutional investors’ risk appetite. Significant profit-taking occurred especially above the $120,000 price level. Thus, inflows into ETFs that had been supporting the upward trend have turned into outflows. 

Institutional capital flows usually reflect market sentiment and confidence, making this development noteworthy for market participants. Additionally, profit realization by professional investors points to an increased perception of market risk. 

The decline in active addresses on the Bitcoin network signals a weakening in transaction volume and demand. This decrease stands out as a fundamental metric supporting price movements.

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Institutional Investors Remain Cautious

According to Farside Investors, the outflows reflect institutional investors’ cautious stance toward Trump’s executive order signed on March 6, which established a national Bitcoin reserve but did not mandate direct Bitcoin purchases. This disappointed the market.

Alvin Kan, COO of Bitget Wallet, stated, “While Trump’s order acknowledges crypto’s role in global finance, the lack of fresh purchases disappointed investors.”

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

Key Details

On March 6, Trump signed an executive order to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve and a digital asset stockpile. Initially, these reserves will include assets seized by law enforcement and through legal proceedings.

On March 7, Bitcoin’s price dropped over 2%, according to Google Finance data. Additionally, CME data showed more than a 2% decline in Bitcoin futures contracts.

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