Markets are not treating this release as a routine data point. Instead, it is being viewed as an early stress test for first-quarter assumptions. In recent weeks, the growing belief that rate cuts could be delayed has pushed investors into a cautious wait-and-see mode, particularly across risk-sensitive assets.

Against this backdrop, Bitcoin and Ethereum have not completely lost upside momentum. Still, both assets appear to be waiting for a clear macro signal before committing to a decisive move.

Inflation Expectations Hold Firm, Pressure Builds on the Fed

Consensus expectations suggest that both headline and core U.S. CPI will remain at 2.7% year over year. That level signals little improvement compared to the previous month and keeps inflation well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

While inflation has been cooling gradually, the pace has not been convincing enough to justify an imminent policy shift. Falling energy prices have offered limited relief to core inflation, complicating the outlook. Although the Fed’s preferred gauge — core PCE — has yet to be released, CPI continues to serve as a critical early signal for markets.

Adding another layer of uncertainty, renewed debate over Federal Reserve independence has surfaced following legal scrutiny involving Chair Jerome Powell. While no immediate policy impact is expected, the issue introduces additional risk sensitivity into already fragile market sentiment.

Bitcoin Remains Compressed Below Resistance

Bitcoin has entered a consolidation phase just below the 95,000 dollar zone after its recent rally. This area is not merely a technical ceiling — it also represents a zone highly sensitive to inflation surprises.

The failure to reclaim the 92,000 dollar level on a sustained basis suggests that upside momentum remains controlled. Still, despite trading below resistance for several days, Bitcoin has yet to show clear signs of structural weakness.

On the downside, the 88,000 dollar level stands out as a key support. A break below that zone could open the door to 86,000 dollars and potentially the stronger demand area near 80,000. On the upside, a decisive move above 95,000 could shift focus back toward the psychologically significant 100,000 level.

Current price structure points to tightening conditions, indicating that a directional move may be approaching. The CPI data could act as the catalyst that resolves this compression.

Ethereum Tests the 3,200 Dollar Threshold

Ethereum’s setup appears more fragile, though not outright bearish. ETH has been trading within a narrow range between 2,600 and 3,350 dollars for nearly two months, reflecting broader market indecision.

The recent bounce from the 3,060 support level suggests short-term buyers remain active. However, this was the second test of that zone, raising concerns about weakening support. Failure to clear the 3,180 resistance could trigger a deeper pullback, with 2,850 dollars emerging as the next area of interest.

Conversely, sustained acceptance above 3,200 dollars could quickly improve sentiment. Such a move would likely put the 3,300 region back into play, followed by the major resistance area near 3,800 if broader risk appetite improves. A CPI reading that supports easing expectations could help unlock that upside scenario.

Is CPI the Only Catalyst Tomorrow?

The day’s agenda extends beyond CPI. Markets will also digest the U.S. Producer Price Index, the release of the Fed’s Beige Book, and developments surrounding the completion of the Fed’s Treasury purchase operations. Additionally, attention remains on a potential U.S. Supreme Court ruling related to tariff policies.

This crowded macro calendar makes it difficult for markets to focus on a single headline. Still, inflation remains the central variable. An upside surprise in CPI could push rate-cut expectations further out, increasing short-term selling pressure across crypto markets.

A softer print, on the other hand, may offer temporary relief — though whether that relief proves durable is far from certain. At this stage, markets are no longer willing to price in optimism based on a single favorable data point.

As a result, the ongoing compression in Bitcoin and Ethereum is not merely technical. It reflects the pricing of uncertainty itself. Tomorrow’s data may break the stalemate, but any lasting trend will ultimately depend on how the Federal Reserve responds to the evolving inflation picture.

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Ethereum price has reached $2,438, preparing to test the $2,500 level. ETH is currently trading within the $2,450 – $2,405 resistance band. Breaking through this zone could push the price toward the $2,550 level. This upward breakout, supported by technical indicators and liquidity structure, could pave the way for a strong rally.

However, if this resistance zone fails to break, the first major support lies around $2,200. This area has historically attracted strong buying interest and served as a rebound zone. Therefore, in the event of a pullback, this level will be critical for investors to monitor closely.

The liquidation map shows that the price is forming higher lows and heading toward liquidity-rich zones. Liquidity pockets above $2,500 could trigger stop orders, pushing the price higher. Market makers taking positions in these areas and short squeeze scenarios may further accelerate the uptrend. Meanwhile, the increasing trading volume since May resembles the bear market of July–August 2022, indicating renewed interest from both retail and institutional investors.

Institutional Capital Flowing Into Ethereum

On-chain data also supports bullish expectations. On Monday, investors withdrew 61,000 ETH from Binance. This move suggests a shift toward a long-term holding strategy instead of short-term trading.

According to Swissblock analysis, 90% of Bitcoin supply is in profit, while Ethereum is below 80%. This discrepancy indicates that ETH may enter a “catch-up” phase, as seen in previous cycles. The ETH/BTC ratio is near multi-year lows, suggesting Ethereum is undervalued.

In June, inflows into spot Ethereum ETFs rose by 68.4% to $950 million. In contrast, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows dropped by 49.5% to $2.64 billion. This clearly shows a capital shift from BTC to ETH, highlighting the growing institutional focus on Ethereum.

THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

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Ethereum remains strong despite the recent price drop. Analysts believe ETH is heading toward the $4,000 level. Even if the price dips in the short term, investors are turning this period into an opportunity. Michael van de Poppe identifies the $2,400 zone as a “buy the dip” region. This area could lay the groundwork for a new rally.  

$ETH goes towards the 'buy the dip' range.

Sub $2,400 is the area where you'd want to accumulate before the next run towards $4,000. pic.twitter.com/y56cKttUHY

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) May 19, 2025

Ethereum delivered a 57.2% return last month. This performance indicates that the bullish trend remains robust. Titan of Crypto, based on Ichimoku analysis, argues that ETH maintains its bullish trend. “As long as the Kijun level holds, Ethereum will keep moving forward,” they say.  

Investors are developing strategies to capitalize on this period. Many are accumulating ETH at levels below $2,400. This movement reflects continued positive expectations in the broader market.  

What Are Whales Doing? Big Investors Are Accumulating ETH  

ETH whales have been making notable moves in recent days. Crypto Rover notes that investors holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH are heavily accumulating. These large investors see dips as opportunities. On-chain data also reveals conflicting behaviors among ETH largest holders. While some whales are actively accumulating, others have chosen to close their positions at current levels.  

Ethereum whales holding between 10K and 100K $ETH are accumulating heavily.

I’m following the smart money on this one! pic.twitter.com/XHak17Luq3

— Crypto Rover (@rovercrc) May 19, 2025

Analytics platform Lookonchain reported, “An ETH whale capitulated a few hours ago and sold 7,000 ETH ($16.88 million) at a loss.” This whale had previously withdrawn 13,479 ETH ($48.82 million) from Binance between December 5, 2024, and January 13, 2025, when Ethereum prices were higher. They currently hold 6,479 ETH, incurring a total loss of $16.28 million.  

Still, many large investors view current levels as suitable for accumulation. Crypto Rover suggests this behavior reflects institutional interest. The Ethereum Foundation’s Trillion Dollar Security initiative also coincides with this period, bolstering market confidence.  

Ethereum continues to hold strong in technical analysis. Analysts interpret the recent dips as classic corrections seen before major rallies.  

DOES NOT CONSTITUTE INVESTMENT ADVICE  

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Support and Resistance Levels

The current situation of Ethereum (ETH) shows that the $1,745 level is critical. If this level is lost, ETH could fall to the $1,650 range. Therefore, it’s essential to be cautious and closely monitor market movements.

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Short-Term Outlook

In the short term, Ethereum (ETH) may continue to test the $1,745 level. If it holds this level, there is potential for a rise back to $1,800 and $1,820. However, if the $1,745 level is breached, a further decline towards $1,650 could occur.

ETH investors should closely watch the $1,745 level. A drop below this level could lead to a more significant decline. Technical indicators and overall market movements can provide a broader perspective, helping investors form their strategies.

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Bitcoin Technical Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) has gained 0.60% in the last 24 hours, reaching $87,940. After breaking the $86,600 resistance, it made a re-test and continued its upward movement. However, for the uptrend to continue, Bitcoin needs to close above $88,500. This level has been tested multiple times, but a strong breakout has yet to occur. If $88,500 is surpassed, Bitcoin could target $91,000, followed by $92,500 – $95,000 levels.

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On the downside, if $86,600 support is lost, Bitcoin may drop first to $85,000, and then to the $83,500 – $82,000 range.

Ethereum Technical Analysis

Ethereum (ETH) bounced from the $2,037 – $1,927 support range and tested the $2,108 resistance but faced rejection. It has now retraced back to the support zone. If $2,108 is broken, Ethereum could see a rapid move toward $2,200 – $2,300.

On the other hand, if $1,927 support fails, Ethereum may decline to $1,850, and eventually $1,800.

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Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Technical Analysis

In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has gained 8.61%, currently trading at $89,789. BTC has regained the $86,641 support level and is now inside a bearish FVG (Fair Value Gap) region. If this region is surpassed, the $100,000 target could be reached. However, if BTC loses the $86,641 support, the next support level would likely be the bullish FVG region. The critical point for BTC is the preservation of this support. If it’s lost, a larger decline could occur.

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Ethereum (ETH/USDT) Technical Analysis

Ethereum has gained 6.42% in the last 24 hours, currently trading at $2,207. After bouncing off the $2,037 support, ETH regained the $2,108 support level and is currently above it. The nearest resistance for Ethereum is the bearish FVG region. A breakthrough in this region could see ETH targeting the $2,811 level. If this support is lost, we may witness a pullback to the $2,000 range.

Tether (USDT) Dominance and Crypto Market Overview

Tether Dominance has pulled back to the bullish FVG region after a rejection from the order block. It rose again to the order block resistance but faced another rejection in a short time. If Tether Dominance breaks the order block resistance, the 5.90% level could be the next target. Currently, the dominance rate stands at 4.94%.

Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to be the key players in the market. The price movements of Bitcoin and Ethereum are at critical levels. If these resistance levels are broken, BTC could target $100,000, and ETH could aim for $2,811. However, the loss of support levels could lead to further retracements. Crypto investors should closely monitor these critical levels for BTC and ETH.

In conclusion, the price movements for Bitcoin and Ethereum are at pivotal levels. For an upward trend, resistance levels must be surpassed, while for a downward move, support levels need to hold. Investors should stay vigilant as the market unfolds.

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Closing Above $2796 is Important!

In our previous analyses, we had mentioned that a closing above the $2796 level was critical. Ethereum surpassed this level, maintaining its uptrend and continuing its upward movement. This level increased buyers’ confidence in the market, allowing the price to test higher levels.

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The next key level for Ethereum is the bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG). If the price breaks through this level, the bullish momentum could strengthen further. However, it is also important to watch out for potential selling pressure from this resistance area.

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Can ETH Price Drop Even Further?

Andrew Kang, co-founder of Mechanism Capital, predicts that ETH could decline to the $2,200 – $2,400 range. According to Kang, the $2,900 – $3,000 range will act as a short-term resistance level for Ethereum.

The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions have led to high volatility in ETH and other cryptocurrencies. Donald Trump’s recent tariff policies against China have fueled market concerns, triggering massive sell-offs.

Are Whales Selling Ethereum?

With ETH’s recent decline, on-chain data suggests that large investors are reducing their ETH holdings. Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, reported that wallets holding 100,000 ETH or more have been selling off significantly. Even wallets containing over 1 million ETH have also started liquidating their holdings.

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Meanwhile, Solana (SOL) continues to rise as Ethereum’s biggest competitor. With the success of platforms like Pump.fun, Solana has become a strong alternative in the DeFi and NFT ecosystems.

Critical Levels in ETH/BTC Pair

Ethereum’s performance against Bitcoin (BTC) is also causing concern among investors. Since the Merge, the ETH/BTC pair has lost around 70% of its value. Technical analysis suggests that ETH/BTC is currently testing the 0.024-0.023 BTC support level.

According to experts, if ETH fails to hold this level, it could drop to 0.020 BTC. However, a potential rebound toward the 50-week EMA level remains possible.

To regain market dominance, Ethereum must see increased blockchain activity and wider adoption.

Ethereum’s short-term trajectory remains uncertain. Whale movements, macro-economic developments, and Bitcoin’s price action will continue to play a crucial role in ETH’s future. Investors should remain cautious about a potential drop toward $2,400!

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