After a series of declines in recent weeks, Bitcoin has slipped below several key technical support levels. This shift in market structure has strengthened expectations that the price could potentially retreat toward the $65,000 region.

Bitcoin Slips Below a Key Support Level

Market data shows that Bitcoin has declined by roughly 4.8% over the past seven days. During this period, the price fell below the $70,000 support level, a threshold that many traders were closely monitoring.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $69,385. This places the asset approximately 29% below its year-to-date high of about $97,500. It also remains nearly 45% below its all-time high, highlighting the extent of the recent pullback.

Overall, the current market structure suggests that short-term momentum has weakened.

Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Market Sentiment

The downward pressure on Bitcoin is not driven solely by technical factors. Global political developments are also playing an important role in shaping investor sentiment.

Tensions in the Middle East have intensified, increasing uncertainty across financial markets. Iranian officials recently indicated that the country plans to adjust its military strategy in the region, shifting from reciprocal responses to a continuous strike approach aimed at the interests of Israel and the United States.

In addition, Iran has announced that it will continue blocking oil shipments bound for Israel and the United States from passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Since a significant portion of global oil trade flows through this route, such measures could create substantial volatility in energy markets.

Iranian authorities have also suggested that these actions could potentially drive oil prices as high as $200 per barrel.

A sharp rise in energy prices would likely increase inflationary pressures globally. Historically, periods of geopolitical uncertainty and rising inflation tend to push investors away from high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies and toward more traditional safe-haven investments.

High Interest Rate Expectations Pressure Crypto

Another major factor weighing on Bitcoin is the outlook for monetary policy in the United States. The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February came in broadly in line with market expectations.

While the data did not produce a surprise, it also did little to strengthen the case for near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. If energy prices continue to rise, inflation could accelerate again, forcing policymakers to maintain a restrictive stance for longer.

Higher interest rates typically reduce liquidity across financial markets, which can limit the growth potential of speculative assets like cryptocurrencies.

According to futures market expectations, there is currently about a 99.3% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged at the March FOMC meeting. The current target range stands at 350 to 375 basis points.

Meanwhile, the probability of a rate cut in April is only around 10.9%, down sharply from roughly 21% one month ago. This decline reflects a shift in market expectations, with investors becoming more cautious about the timing of potential monetary easing.

Rising Bond Yields Add More Pressure

Macroeconomic developments are also affecting the bond market. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have continued to trend upward in response to inflation concerns.

Higher yields make government bonds more attractive to investors seeking stable returns. As a result, capital may shift away from risk-sensitive assets such as cryptocurrencies and into safer instruments.

This dynamic can further limit demand for digital assets during periods of economic uncertainty.

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Sharp Pullback After Record High

Bitcoin reached a historic peak in October last year when the price climbed above $126,000. Since that record level, however, the market has experienced a significant correction. At present, Bitcoin is trading around $68,000, indicating that the asset has lost nearly half of its value from its all-time high.

Many analysts view this decline not as an isolated event but as part of a broader and recurring market pattern. Historically, Bitcoin has gone through powerful bull runs followed by extended correction periods. These phases often reflect shifts in market sentiment, liquidity conditions, and investor positioning.

Understanding the Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle

One of the most frequently discussed frameworks for interpreting Bitcoin’s price movements is the so-called “four-year cycle.” This model centers around the Bitcoin halving, a programmed event that reduces the mining reward by half roughly every four years.

The most recent halving took place in April 2024. After that update, the reward for mining each block dropped to 3.125 BTC. When Bitcoin first launched, miners received 50 BTC per block, but successive halvings have gradually reduced the issuance rate.

Historical patterns suggest that Bitcoin prices often reach a peak roughly 16 to 18 months after a halving event. Following this peak, the market typically enters a bear phase that can last around a year. The October peak observed last year fits closely within that historical timing.

Investor Psychology Reinforces the Pattern

A key factor behind the persistence of the four-year cycle may be investor psychology. Retail participants often behave in predictable ways, entering the market aggressively during periods of hype and selling rapidly when prices begin to decline.

These behavioral patterns reinforce the boom-and-bust dynamics that have characterized the crypto market for more than a decade. As a result, some analysts continue to argue that Bitcoin still behaves more like a speculative asset than a traditional safe-haven store of value such as gold.

Institutional Participation Still Limited

Although institutional interest in digital assets has increased in recent years, its overall influence on the crypto market remains relatively modest. The combined size of cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds and companies holding digital assets as treasury reserves is estimated to represent only about 10% of the total crypto market.

Another potential risk comes from companies that hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets. If market conditions deteriorate further, some of these firms may need to liquidate their holdings in order to meet debt obligations. Such selling pressure could intensify the downward trend and prolong the bear market.

Given these factors, many market observers believe the current crypto downturn may not yet be finished. The next major recovery phase could take time to develop as the market works through the remaining stages of the cycle.

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What Are Technical Indicators Signaling for Bitcoin?

Despite persistent risk-off headlines in global markets, Bitcoin has notably failed to accelerate to the downside. This deceleration in selling pressure is viewed by some analysts as an early sign that bearish momentum may be fading.

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin recently retested its 20-day moving average near $68,500. At the same time, Bollinger Bands have narrowed significantly, indicating compressed volatility. Historically, such volatility contractions often precede expansion phases, where price breaks out decisively in either direction.

Earlier in the week, Bitcoin briefly traded above $70,000 on Coinbase before retreating toward the $68,400 area. On the downside, the $62,500 level has been tested three separate times and held firm, reinforcing its importance as a key support zone.

Momentum oscillators also reflect early signs of stabilization. Both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the stochastic indicator have displayed positive divergences, suggesting weakening bearish momentum. Still, these signals are developing within the context of a broader downtrend.

Tactical Improvement vs. Structural Reversal

Analysts emphasize the distinction between tactical recovery and structural trend reversal. While volatility compression, improving ETF inflows, and the disappearance of the Coinbase premium/discount gap suggest the market is not accelerating into a fresh leg lower, they do not yet confirm a full regime change.

Asset allocation models continue to classify Bitcoin within a bear market framework. As a result, upward price movements are currently interpreted as short-term tactical opportunities rather than the beginning of a sustained bullish phase.

Short Squeeze and Funding Dynamics

Derivatives market positioning has also played a significant role in recent price action. Deeply negative funding rates signaled crowded short positioning, meaning traders holding short contracts were paying longs. When Bitcoin rebounded sharply from around $63,000, it triggered a classic short squeeze, forcing liquidations and temporarily easing selling pressure.

Nevertheless, analysts underline that a durable trend reversal would require stronger structural capital inflows and meaningful macroeconomic catalysts. Until such drivers emerge, the prevailing downtrend from the all-time high remains technically intact, with fragile liquidity conditions and overhead resistance levels reinforcing a cautious market stance.

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From $50.9 Billion to $41.4 Billion

In November, Binance held roughly $50.9 billion in stablecoin reserves. That figure has now fallen to around $41.4 billion, marking a decline of close to $10 billion in just three months. As a result, reserves have returned to levels not seen since October.

Stablecoin balances on exchanges are widely viewed as a proxy for deployable liquidity. Funds parked in stablecoins often represent “dry powder” ready to re-enter the market. When these balances shrink, it can signal that investors are either stepping to the sidelines or converting digital holdings back into fiat currencies.

Binance Still Dominates, But Signals Matter

Despite the decline, Binance continues to account for approximately 64% of total stablecoin reserves held across all cryptocurrency exchanges. That dominance underscores its central role in global crypto liquidity.

However, when a platform of this magnitude experiences a noticeable contraction in reserves, it becomes a development worth monitoring. A sustained reduction may suggest cooling demand, reduced trading activity, or a broader pullback in risk appetite.

Generally, falling exchange stablecoin reserves indicate that investors are withdrawing liquidity rather than positioning for near-term re-entry into crypto markets. This dynamic can contribute to softer price action and limit the strength of potential rebounds.

Total Stablecoin Market Caps Remain Flat

According to DeFiLlama data, the total stablecoin market capitalization has plateaued slightly above $300 billion since October. This follows two years of significant expansion, during which stablecoin circulation increased by roughly 150%.

The last major contraction occurred in mid-2022 following the Terra/Luna collapse, with recovery only gaining traction in November 2023—about 18 months later.

Fed Policy Adds Pressure

Crypto liquidity is also closely tied to U.S. monetary policy. At present, expectations for a rate cut in March remain low. CME futures markets indicate a 95.5% probability that interest rates will stay unchanged, limiting the likelihood of a near-term liquidity boost for risk assets.

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When Bitcoin was trading around $65,800, approximately 70.41% of the assets transferred to exchanges came from large holders. However, this category is not homogeneous. A deeper breakdown reveals a sharp divergence in behavior between seasoned long-term whales and newer large-scale buyers.

Newer Whales Lead the Bitcoin Sell-Off

According to the data, large investors who entered positions at relatively higher price levels transferred roughly 138,000 BTC to exchanges. This accounts for nearly all major inflows during the observed period. In contrast, long-term large holders sent only about 7,500 BTC to trading platforms.

This distinction is critical. The current wave of exchange inflows appears to be driven less by profit-taking and more by defensive selling from investors facing unrealized losses. Rather than distributing gains, newer whales seem to be reducing exposure amid heightened uncertainty.

Rising Exchange Balances Signal Growing Supply

Since January, total Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have increased by more than 32,000 BTC, reaching approximately 2.75 million BTC. An increase in exchange balances is typically interpreted as a rise in readily sellable supply, which can amplify downward price pressure.

Technically, Bitcoin’s loss of the $65,000 support level triggered additional volatility. Within 24 hours, the price fell by 4% to 5%, setting off hundreds of millions of dollars in liquidations across leveraged derivatives markets. The forced unwinding of positions further intensified short-term weakness.

Macro Headwinds and the $60,000 Threshold

The broader macro backdrop has also played a role. The decision to raise global tariffs to 15% dampened overall risk appetite, prompting capital rotation toward traditional safe-haven assets such as gold. Bitcoin, often viewed as a risk-sensitive asset in such environments, faced renewed pressure.

CryptoQuant identifies the $60,000 level as a key short-term support zone. Whether exchange inflows begin to slow will likely determine the next directional move. Continued heavy transfers could sustain downside momentum, while a reduction in sell-side flows may allow the market to stabilize and reassess its footing.

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Diplomatic Talks Approach a Decisive Moment

Diplomatic sources indicate that the coming two days could prove pivotal for the future of U.S.–Iran nuclear discussions. If Iran presents a proposal acceptable to Washington within this timeframe, negotiations are expected to resume in Geneva on Friday. Reports in U.S. media suggest that the current offer may represent the final opportunity extended by the Trump administration.

Separately, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran may be willing to make concessions on its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. The possibility of allowing U.S. companies to participate in oil extraction activities has also been mentioned. However, substantial disagreements reportedly remain between the parties, underscoring the fragility of the process.

Bitcoin Pulls Back, Liquidations Surge

Bitcoin, which traded in the $67,000–$68,000 range over the weekend, retreated amid the rising geopolitical tension. During overnight trading, the leading cryptocurrency declined to as low as $64,200.

The pullback triggered increased volatility in derivatives markets. Over the past 24 hours, 135,199 traders were liquidated, with total liquidations exceeding $455 million. While digital assets have at times benefited from geopolitical instability, the current environment appears to be prompting short-term risk reduction among market participants.

Gold and Silver Reassert Safe-Haven Status

Precious metals, by contrast, attracted renewed demand. Over the past two years of recurring tensions involving Iran, the U.S., and Israel, gold has climbed from around $2,000 to as high as $5,600. Entering the new week, the metal once again responded positively to geopolitical uncertainty. Spot gold, which had recently reclaimed the $5,000 level, rose 1% overnight to $5,165.

Silver posted an even stronger performance, advancing more than 3% to surpass $87.

The current landscape suggests that market volatility will remain closely tied to diplomatic developments. As uncertainty intensifies, capital flows appear to be shifting toward assets traditionally viewed as stores of value during periods of geopolitical stress.

This content does not constitute investment advice.

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Silver Plunges More Than 10%

Silver fell more than 10% intraday, sliding to $76.68. A decline of this magnitude within a single session underscores the heightened volatility currently gripping commodity markets. Silver’s dual role as both a precious metal and an industrial input makes it particularly sensitive to broader equity trends—especially in the technology sector.

Recent weakness in technology stocks has contributed to a broader risk-off tone. As investors reduce exposure to growth-oriented assets, silver has faced additional downside pressure. The speed of the sell-off suggests that leveraged positioning may also have amplified the move.

Gold Follows Falling

Gold mirrored the negative momentum, retreating to $4,958 per ounce. While earlier in the session the decline was relatively contained, selling intensified as the day progressed. The metal’s pullback reflects a recalibration of expectations around U.S. monetary policy and global risk sentiment.

Fed Policy Expectations Weigh on Metals

A key catalyst behind the decline is the strengthening view that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates in the near term. Stronger-than-expected labor market data has reduced the probability of imminent policy easing. In a higher-for-longer rate environment, non-yielding assets such as gold and silver typically lose relative appeal.

Market participants increasingly believe that resilient economic data will keep the Fed cautious. If the U.S. dollar remains firm under these conditions, additional pressure on precious metals cannot be ruled out.

Easing Geopolitical Tensions are Increasing Pressure on Gold and Silver

Another contributing factor may be a modest easing of geopolitical tensions. U.S. President Donald Trump stated that an agreement with Iran is necessary and suggested that a deal could be reached within the next month. He also indicated openness to continued dialogue, while warning that failure to reach an agreement would be “very traumatic” for Iran.

In addition, Trump reportedly paused certain technology restrictions on China ahead of a planned summit with Chinese President Xi. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu also expressed confidence that Trump could secure a favorable agreement with Iran. These developments have slightly reduced geopolitical risk premiums, diminishing safe-haven demand for gold and silver.

Overall, a stronger dollar, delayed rate-cut expectations, and a partial cooling in geopolitical tensions have converged to trigger the sharp correction in precious metals. Future direction will likely hinge on incoming macroeconomic data and diplomatic developments.

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Gold Extends Losses as Dollar Strengthens

Spot gold declined 0.3% on Thursday to $5,063.11 per ounce, giving back part of the more than 1% gain recorded in the previous session. U.S. gold futures for April delivery followed a similar pattern, slipping 0.3% to $5,083.90 per ounce.

The move coincided with a rise in the U.S. dollar index. A stronger dollar typically weighs on commodities priced in dollars, as it makes them more expensive for holders of other currencies, thereby limiting demand.

Labor Market Details and Revisions

January employment growth in the United States exceeded expectations, while the unemployment rate eased to 4.3%. However, downward revisions to prior data revealed that total job creation for 2025 amounted to 181,000 positions, significantly below the previously estimated 584,000. This suggests that, despite the headline strength, underlying labor market momentum may be softer than initially perceived.

The data has slightly reduced the likelihood of an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Market consensus points to no policy change through May, with a potential rate reduction beginning in June.

Fiscal Outlook and Policy Uncertainty

Adding to the macroeconomic backdrop, the Congressional Budget Office projects the U.S. budget deficit to reach $1.853 trillion in fiscal year 2026. In a low-growth environment, widening fiscal imbalances may complicate the broader economic outlook.

Investors are also monitoring potential leadership changes at the Fed, with some assessments suggesting that a new chair could pursue a more accommodative monetary stance.

Silver and Other Precious Metals

Silver mirrored gold’s decline. Spot silver traded around $83.29, posting a daily loss of 1.07% after a nearly 4% surge in the previous session. The pullback underscores ongoing volatility across the precious metals complex.

Platinum fell 0.8% to $2,113.79, while palladium edged up 0.9% to $1,715.30. Markets now await weekly jobless claims and the forthcoming inflation report, both of which are expected to play a decisive role in shaping expectations for the Fed’s next policy steps.

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A Steep Drop From the Peak — But Historically Familiar

Bitcoin retreated from its cycle high near $126,000 into the $60,000–$70,000 range, representing a drawdown of approximately 52%. While such a decline can appear alarming in isolation, historical data shows that similar corrections have occurred after every major halving-driven peak.

In previous cycles, Bitcoin has repeatedly experienced post-peak declines ranging from 50% to as much as 80%. From this perspective, the current correction fits well within historical norms rather than signaling an abnormal structural shift.

The April 2024 halving also aligns closely with past timelines. In earlier cycles, Bitcoin typically reached its cycle top roughly 12 to 18 months after halving events. Those peaks were then followed by prolonged corrective phases, often lasting close to a year, before a new accumulation period began.

The “This Time Is Different” Narrative Returns

As in every cycle, debates have resurfaced around whether the four-year model still applies. Some market participants argue that global liquidity conditions now exert a greater influence on Bitcoin’s price than halving mechanics. Others suggest the market may be transitioning toward a longer, five-year cycle.

Despite these arguments, recent developments indicate that structural evolution has not eliminated cyclical behavior. The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs, increased regulatory clarity, and a more mature DeFi ecosystem have not prevented a post-peak correction from unfolding.

ETFs Amplify Volatility in Both Directions

During the latest sell-off, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $2.1 billion in net outflows. This highlighted a key reality of institutional access: increased liquidity accelerates price movements on both the upside and the downside.

While DeFi infrastructure has proven more resilient than during the 2022 downturn, declines in total value locked (TVL) and slower staking inflows demonstrate that no segment of the market is immune to broader bear-market conditions.

Where Is the Bottom?

Bitcoin’s intraday rebound from $60,000 toward $70,000 suggests that early support may be forming. However, historical bear markets typically last between six and twelve months and often include multiple failed recovery attempts before a durable bottom is established.

Current indicators reflect significant deleveraging. Stablecoin dominance sits at 10.3%, funding rates are hovering near neutral, and futures open interest has fallen by roughly 55%. Within the four-year cycle framework, Bitcoin now appears to be near the early stages of the corrective phase.

The core question is not whether the cycle still exists, but whether market participants are willing to accept that Bitcoin may once again be following a familiar historical path.

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Bitcoin Price Action Signals Bear Market Conditions

Over the past several weeks, Bitcoin has broken through multiple key technical levels. Most notably, the price slipped below $80,000 for the first time since April 2025 and quickly extended losses toward the $60,000 region. In just four months, Bitcoin has shed nearly 50% of its value, highlighting the intensity of the selling pressure.

One of the clearest signs of stress came from derivatives markets. Weekend liquidations exceeded $2.7 billion, indicating a large-scale unwind of overleveraged positions. Such liquidation cascades are commonly associated with bear market phases, where excessive risk-taking is rapidly flushed out of the system.

Three Catalysts Accelerating the Sell-Off on Bitcoin

According to market analysts, the downturn was not driven by a single event but rather a combination of macroeconomic and cross-market shocks.

The first factor was growing concern over the future direction of U.S. monetary policy. The possibility of Kevin Warsh being appointed as Federal Reserve Chair fueled expectations of a more hawkish stance, prompting investors to reduce exposure to risk-sensitive assets, including cryptocurrencies.

The second driver came from traditional equity markets, particularly the technology sector. Earnings disappointments among the so-called “Magnificent Seven” weighed heavily on sentiment. A sharp decline of roughly 10% in Microsoft shares served as a catalyst for broader risk aversion, spilling over into digital assets.

The third and most striking development occurred in commodities markets. Silver prices collapsed by approximately 40% in just three days, reinforcing a widespread “sell everything” mindset. This type of cross-asset capitulation tends to amplify downside pressure across all speculative markets, crypto included.

Persistent Selling Pressure From U.S. Markets

Additional data points suggest that selling pressure is not limited to derivatives or offshore venues. Spot market activity in the United States continues to show consistent distribution. Over-the-counter transaction flows indicate that U.S.-based participants have remained net sellers, reinforcing the idea that this move reflects deeper repositioning rather than short-term speculation.

What the Broader Picture Suggests

Taken together, Bitcoin’s rapid drawdown, aggressive leverage unwinding, and macro-driven risk-off environment point to a market undergoing structural stress. While short-term volatility remains elevated, the current phase appears driven by a convergence of monetary policy uncertainty, equity market weakness, and cross-asset liquidation dynamics. How long this pressure persists will depend largely on macro conditions and investor risk appetite in the months ahead.

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