At first glance, the data presents a calm picture since the figures aligned perfectly with forecasts. However, in macroeconomic indicators, the most important message is sometimes hidden in numbers that do not change. The fact that inflation has remained at the same level for two consecutive months suggests that price pressures have not completely disappeared, yet a new acceleration phase has not emerged either.

Core Inflation Remains Sticky

Alongside the headline figure, another key indicator closely monitored by markets is core inflation (Core CPI). Annual core inflation, which excludes food and energy components, was 2.5% in February 2026, the same level recorded in January.

This pattern indicates that certain components of inflation still display a “sticky” structure. Price pressures—particularly within the services sector and some essential consumption categories—are easing more slowly, which keeps the core data relatively elevated.

In other words, the persistence of inflation is also visible in the core measure; core CPI remaining steady at 2.5% year-over-year suggests that price pressures across the broader economy have not yet been fully broken.

Markets Show a “Calm but Cautious” Reaction

Because the data matched expectations, financial markets did not experience sharp price movements. Still, a noticeable balance-seeking behavior appeared across several major assets.

• US Dollar Index (DXY): Continued its sideways movement without a significant deviation after the data release.

• Gold: Spot gold prices remained near the $5,190 resistance zone, reflecting the slower pace of disinflation.

• US 10-year Treasury yields: Continued hovering around 4%, as concerns persist that the Fed may delay potential rate cuts.

Overall, the reaction suggests that markets interpreted the data not as a major surprise but rather as confirmation of existing expectations.

All Eyes on the March Fed Meeting

Following the inflation release, market attention has now shifted toward the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed’s next interest rate decision meeting is scheduled for March 17–18, 2026.

The updated economic projections, growth forecasts, and signals regarding the future rate path that will be released during this meeting could shape the direction of monetary policy for the rest of the year. In particular, the speed at which inflation moves toward the Fed’s target will remain a key factor in determining the timing of potential rate cuts.

For now, the consensus across markets is relatively clear: the data appears calm, but the Fed’s signals will ultimately determine the next move.

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FED Will Announce Interest Rate Decision

The US Federal Reserve (FED) will announce its interest rate decision on 30 July 2025 (today) between 21.00 – 22.00 Turkey time. The eyes of the markets are set on the interest rate decision to be announced by the FED. Market analysts are eagerly awaiting whether the FED will maintain the tight monetary policy it has implemented in recent years in line with inflation data and economic growth figures.

Expectations Before the Decision;

• Inflation Data: After the announcement of July inflation rates, the issue of interest rate cut created uncertainty. Although US President Donald Trump announced that the markets are doing better than expected, the recent statements of FED Chairman Powell stated that it is necessary to be precise and clear on this issue.
• Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate data has become an important data for the FED’s possible interest rate cut. The decrease in unemployment rates and unemployment benefit applications created an optimistic atmosphere in the US economy.

What Direction Will the FED Interest Rate Decision Be?

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated that tight monetary policy should now start to gradually loosen. Mary stated that two interest rate cuts would be appropriate this year. Fed Board Member Christopher Waller stated that there may be an interest rate cut this month. He stated that he was in the minority on this issue, but that this situation was not political.

What is the Expectation of Experts?

They made posts defending the comments made by major banks, especially Goldman Sachs, in the first quarter of the year. Goldman Sachs experts, who previously emphasised that the FED is expected to cut interest rates at the September meeting, stated that a possible interest rate cut in the interest rate decision to be made today is stronger than the possibility of keeping it constant.

Crypto World is eagerly awaiting the FED’s Interest Rate Decision

The cryptocurrency world, one of the most eagerly awaited sectors of the FED interest rate decisions, turned its eyes to the FED meeting to be held this evening. The cryptocurrency world is waiting for the long-standing tight monetary policy to loosen and interest rate cuts to begin. Eyes turned to whether the interest rate cut to be announced this evening will come. A possible interest rate cut is thought to relieve the cryptocurrency market.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

*DOES NOT CONTAIN INVESTMENT ADVICE*

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• Forecast: 4.50%
• Previous: 4.50%
• Actual: 4.50%

Following the announcement, markets experienced high volatility. However, expectations that the Fed may be nearing the end of its tightening cycle provided support for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

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Bitcoin and Ethereum React Quickly!

After the decision, Bitcoin surged from $84,000 to $85,000, marking a 1.22% increase within a short time frame. The fact that rates were held steady was seen as a positive development for Bitcoin.

Ethereum outperformed, jumping from $2,017 to $2,067, delivering a 2.22% gain. The move sparked broader optimism in the altcoin market, where several assets also posted notable gains.

Market Outlook and Expectations

Holding rates steady is being priced in as positive news for crypto and equity markets in the short term. However, Fed Chair Powell, during the press conference, emphasized that inflation remains above target, and additional tightening may be warranted if necessary.

This commentary creates a scenario of cautious optimism in the medium term. Expect continued volatility in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and risk assets as markets digest future data.

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On the other hand, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) was announced at 0.0% on a monthly basis. Market expectations were for a 0.3% increase, and the previous reading was 0.4%. On an annual basis, PPI came in at 3.2%, aligning closely with market forecasts.

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Potential Impact on Crypto Markets

The implications of these figures for the Federal Reserve (FED)‘s monetary policy are of significant interest to cryptocurrency markets. The lower-than-expected PPI suggests that inflationary pressures are easing, which could reinforce expectations that the FED may adopt a more cautious stance regarding future interest rate hikes. This scenario might support short-term bullish momentum for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and the broader crypto market.

However, jobless claims remaining lower than expected highlights continued strength in the US economy. This could sustain concerns that the FED may maintain its “hawkish” policy stance, keeping market participants cautious. As a result, crypto markets are navigating mixed signals from the latest economic data.

In the short term, the lower PPI figure may generate positive sentiment within cryptocurrency markets. However, the ongoing strength in the labor market keeps macroeconomic risks on the radar. Investors are advised to closely monitor upcoming FED statements and any clues regarding future interest rate policies.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

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The eyes and ears of the global economic circles and investors in the crypto markets were on the FED members convening today. The institution announced the interest rate decision following the meeting.

The FED kept the interest rates unchanged. This marks the second time during the 15-month interest rate increase period that the interest rates have remained steady. Bitcoin, on the other hand, continued its sideways movement.

In its statement regarding the decision, the FED stated, “Recent indicators show that the economy is growing steadily. Job growth has slowed somewhat in recent months, but inflation remains above the desired level.”

“The U.S. banking system is strong and resilient. Tighter credit conditions for individuals and businesses can affect economic activity, employment, and inflation, but the extent of their impact is uncertain. The Committee closely monitors inflation-related risks,” the statement added.

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Market Reactions and Bitcoin Price Post Powell’s Speech

“We are fully focused on our goals of price stability and full employment. We transitioned from a very tight monetary policy from the last year to this year. In the upcoming period, we will carefully assess and, if necessary, continue the tight policy,” the statement continued.

“Our tightening of employment conditions continues despite some loosening. Our policy to reduce inflation to 2% remains in effect, a goal we have had for a long time. We are aware of the adverse effects of inflation on people,” it added.

“The Committee’s goal is to achieve full employment in the long term and bring inflation to approximately 2%.”

Following the Fed’s interest rate decision, the markets indicate a 70% probability of interest rates remaining unchanged at the November 1, 2023, interest meeting.

After Powell’s speech, the price of Bitcoin is trading around $26,900.

Inflation forecasts by FED officials for the years:

• End of 2023: 3.3%
• End of 2024: 2.5%
• End of 2025: 2.2%

Highlights from Fed Chairman Powell’s Speech:

• “We are ready to increase interest rates further when appropriate.”
• “We may consider another increase in interest rates until we achieve the correct monetary policy.”
• “We are aware of the challenges posed by inflation.”
• “Our current policy stance is restrictive.”
• “We aim to bring inflation to 2% over time with sufficiently restrictive and tightening policies.”
• “We are ready to increase interest rates if deemed necessary.”
• “The decision to keep interest rates unchanged does not mean we have reached the desired policy stance.”
• “A majority of policymakers believe another interest rate hike might be more appropriate.”
• “We need convincing data to reach the end of interest rate hikes.”
• “We are very close to reaching our desired target.”
• “The worst thing we can do is to fail to restore price stability.”
• “The growth has been stronger than expected.”
• “We expect a decline in consumer spending.”
• “If the economy is stronger than expected, the Fed must do more.”
• “We are monitoring short-term movements in energy prices.”

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