Futures markets, however, are clearer. They price in a 97% chance that the Fed will pause rate hikes, following three consecutive cuts. This expectation reflects a market gradually adjusting to the central bank’s recent policy moves.

Cautious Sentiment on the Fed Side

Last month’s FOMC minutes showed that caution dominates among policymakers. Officials are carefully weighing inflation risks against potential unemployment. With the policy rate at 3.5–3.75%, the Fed has limited room to maneuver. Recent quarter-point cuts aimed to prevent sharp labor market disruptions, but now the consensus leans toward pausing. For Fed Chair Jerome Powell, this is a challenging environment.

CME FedWatch data reinforces this view. Last week, the probability of a rate hold stood at 95%, now it’s over 97%. Powell’s recent remarks underline the difficulty of balancing inflation and unemployment risks simultaneously.

Crypto Markets Feel the Pressure

Uncertainty over interest rates continues to weigh on crypto assets. The total market capitalization has approached $2.99 trillion, but this modest rise offers little confidence. Bitcoin and major altcoins are trying to hold their ground, yet the market remains fragile.

Sharp gains in gold and silver signal that risk appetite is shifting toward safe havens. This trend tempers investor enthusiasm in Bitcoin and weakens crypto’s short-term narrative.

Polymarket data shows almost a 99% probability that the Fed will hold rates. This expectation favors directionless, jittery movements rather than sudden crypto rallies. Upward attempts exist, but their sustainability is limited.

What Derivatives Markets Indicate

Derivatives indicators suggest investors are not convinced about further upside. Demand for leveraged long positions is weak, while professional traders price higher probabilities of downside risks in options markets.

Bitcoin options’ delta skew reached 12% on Monday. Normally, this indicator fluctuates between -6% and +6%. This level shows put options are trading at a premium, reflecting strong hedging demand. The last time delta skew reached similar levels was December 1, 2025, when Bitcoin dropped from $91,500 to $83,900 in hours. This market memory helps explain today’s cautious stance.

Gold at Record, Bitcoin Behind

Concerns about a weaker U.S. dollar have boosted gold prices to record levels, with spot gold briefly hitting $5,100. Analysts are questioning whether “value-loss trades” are accelerating.

Bitcoin, however, has yet to follow this trend. Even as the S&P 500 rose 0.6% in a single day, Bitcoin remained subdued. This suggests the decline cannot be solely linked to U.S. financial risks. Broader confidence issues dominate the crypto market.

In summary, the Fed’s upcoming decision could increase short-term volatility. If rates remain on hold, the crypto market is likely to continue grappling with uncertainty rather than clear direction.

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On the other hand, some funds experienced outflows. Grayscale Mini Bitcoin Trust and Bitwise’s BITB funds also had small net inflows. However, Grayscale’s GBTC fund saw an outflow of 41.22 million dollars, Fidelity’s FBTC fund lost 23 million dollars, and ARK & 21Shares ARKB fund saw a 6.21 million dollar outflow. 

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have cumulatively attracted a total net investment of 53.07 billion dollars. In the last nine trading days, these funds received 4.4 billion dollars in new investments. Since April, the total investment volume has reached around 17 billion dollars. 

Spot Bitcoin ETFs attract institutional investors and corporate treasuries. The increasing inflows since April have strengthened Bitcoin’s position in the digital asset market. Large investment amounts from major funds like BlackRock indicate growing confidence in the market. 

Stable Growth and Investment Volume in Ethereum ETFs 

On the Ethereum side, the trend toward spot ETFs continues. On July 15, a net investment inflow of 259 million dollars was recorded. Ether funds received over 1 billion dollars in investments during the last four trading days. Thus, Ethereum ETFs attracted net positive investments for the eighth consecutive day. 

Meanwhile, Bitcoin price is trading around 118,200 dollars at the time of this report. A slight pullback occurred from the all-time high of 123,000 dollars reached earlier in the week. However, the price maintains critical support levels. 

LVRG Research Director Nick Ruck noted that lower-than-expected CPI data increases the likelihood of the FED cutting interest rates in September. This situation has led to expectations of increased Bitcoin demand. 

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Market participants are reassessing rate cut expectations following the announcement. Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies, gold, and stocks are being priced according to these developments. The annual CPI came in slightly above expectations at 2.7%. The monthly CPI matched expectations at 0.3%. Core CPI data showed a yearly rate of 2.9%, below expectations, and a monthly rate of 0.2%, slightly below forecasts.

June 2025 US CPI Figures 

• Consumer Price Index (CPI) Yearly: Released at 2.7% (Expectation: 2.6%, Previous: 2.4%)
• Consumer Price Index (CPI) Monthly: Released at 0.3% (Expectation: 0.3%, Previous: 0.1%)
• Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) Yearly: Released at 2.9% (Expectation: 3.0%, Previous: 2.8%)
• Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) Monthly: Released at 0.2% (Expectation: 0.3%, Previous: 0.1%)

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The data came slightly below expectations, indicating that the US labor market continues to show strength. Thus, unemployment claims have decreased for the second consecutive week. 

Why Are US Unemployment Claims Important? 

This weekly data shows the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. It is considered a key indicator of labor market health. A decrease in claims suggests fewer layoffs and a resilient employment market. 

Details of This Week’s Data: 

• Expectation: 236K 
• Previous: 233K 
• Actual: 227K 

What Does This Mean for Fed Policies? 

The lower-than-expected US unemployment claims strengthen the likelihood that the Fed will maintain its current monetary policies. The labor market’s resilience signals ongoing economic growth and may support the Fed’s decision to pause or slow down interest rate hikes. 

On the other hand, the decline in unemployment raises the risk of continued inflationary pressures, so the Fed may remain cautious. Therefore, these data will be an important factor influencing the direction of monetary policy in upcoming Fed meetings. 

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Gate.io announced the presale of Pump.fun’s PUMP token with a $600 million target set for July 12. However, all announcements were quickly removed. Meanwhile, Bit Digital (BTBT) sold all of its Bitcoin holdings and shifted its treasury entirely to Ethereum. The company now holds 100,603 ETH worth $254.8 million, making it one of the largest publicly listed ETH holders. 

Market Cap and Technical Levels in Motion 

The total market cap dropped by $20 billion in the past day, falling to $3.30 trillion. Since July 3, TOTAL has been trading within a narrow range between $3.35 trillion resistance and $3.27 trillion support. This reflects uncertainty among market participants. 

If buying momentum strengthens, the $3.35 trillion resistance could be broken, potentially pushing the market cap to $3.44 trillion. However, this scenario requires a notable increase in buying activity. Conversely, if selling pressure rises, TOTAL may fall below the support level to $3.22 trillion, leading to broader market losses. 

Trump’s Tariffs and Market Impact 

Bitcoin price declined 1% today to $108,206. Interestingly, daily trading volume rose by 15% to $44 billion, indicating rising sell pressure in the market. A falling price coupled with increasing volume suggests panic selling by investors. 

On July 7, U.S. President Donald Trump sent letters announcing new tariffs between 25% and 40% to 14 countries. Initial letters were sent to South Korea and Japan, followed by similar messages to 12 more countries, including Tunisia, Kazakhstan, Serbia, Bosnia, Myanmar, Laos, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, Indonesia, and South Africa. Trump emphasized concerns over trade deficits and warned of additional tariffs if retaliation occurred. 

Economist Peter Schiff described Trump’s action as a fundamental misunderstanding of trade. According to Google Finance, crypto-related stocks like MicroStrategy and Robinhood declined, with Bitcoin mining stocks suffering even greater losses. 

The tariffs also affected U.S. stock markets. CNN data showed the Dow Jones fell by 422 points, the S&P 500 by nearly 50 points, and NASDAQ by 189 points—indicating a correlation between market volatility and tariff news. 

In the past, the U.S.–China trade war had pushed Bitcoin below $80,000. The new tariffs are expected to take effect on August 1. In addition, reduced expectations of a Fed rate cut further reinforce the downward trend. 

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Trump Targets Fed Chair Powell

Donald Trump once again targeted Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. He said Powell was acting like a “stubborn mule” regarding interest rate cuts. Claiming Powell is damaging the economy, Trump argued that borrowing costs have risen and accused Powell of making decisions that are “not in the country’s interest.” 

“I would very much like Fed Chair Powell to resign,” Trump stated. 

Additionally, Trump expressed his frustration by saying, “I think we should be paying 1% right now, but we’re paying more because I believe we have a man suffering from Trump Derangement Syndrome.” He defended rate cuts as a way to stimulate growth and called Powell “a fool.” 

Trump’s Crypto Comments

While continuing his criticism of Powell, Trump also touched on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. The President stated, “Bitcoin eases the pressure on the dollar.” He expressed his interest in the crypto world by saying, “Crypto is a very fun thing,” suggesting he is exploring alternatives to traditional monetary policies. 

Fed’s Cautious Approach Conflicts with Trump

Trump believes quickly lowering interest rates would accelerate economic recovery. On the other hand, Powell is more cautious. Highlighting the risk of inflation, Powell warned that premature rate cuts could lead to long-term economic imbalances. 

The Fed made several rate cuts last year, but has since adopted a “wait and see” policy. Moreover, Powell emphasized that the labor market remains strong, and thus, hasty decisions could be risky. Trump has increased pressure for rate cuts, especially with new tax reduction packages and rising government spending. He argues that lower interest rates would make it easier to finance government debt. 

Powell’s term ends in May 2026. Trump mentioned he is considering potential replacements, including former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh. Trump aims to appoint someone who will “stimulate growth” as the new Fed Chair. 

Trump has supporters as well. Businessman Grant Cardone posted on social media: 

“Fed Chair Jerome Powell should resign today! There is no inflation, and he is punishing the American middle class with high mortgage rates.” 

Trump also addressed trade policies. He said he believes all trade barriers with India will be lifted, adding, “The real problem is Powell not lowering interest rates.” He also made new tariff announcements regarding China and Canada. 

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Crypto markets are easily influenced by macroeconomic events. Today, Coinbase’s earnings report and U.S. Unemployment Claims data will be released. How might these two events impact Bitcoin and altcoin prices? 

Coinbase Earnings Report: How Is the Crypto Exchange Performing? 

Coinbase is one of the largest crypto exchanges in the U.S. Its earnings report reveals the company’s revenue and trading volume. According to Reuters, Coinbase shares dropped by 7.7% in April 2025. This reflects the volatility in the crypto market. Investors will focus on revenue from transaction fees in the report. Additionally, the impact of Trump’s trade policies on the market is a point of curiosity. A strong Coinbase report could push crypto prices upward. However, weak results may increase selling pressure. As a result, volatility is expected during the announcement. 

Unemployment Claims: An Indicator of Economic Health 

U.S. Unemployment Claims provide insight into economic health. According to posts on the X platform, the expectation is 232K, with the previous figure at 241K. If claims come in lower than expected, it signals a strong labor market. Analysts note that positive labor market data has historically supported Bitcoin prices. Conversely, higher-than-expected claims could create economic uncertainty, potentially leading to downward pressure on the crypto market. Investors will interpret this data in the context of the Fed’s interest rate policies. 

What Does This Mean for the Crypto Market? 

Both data points could directly impact the crypto market. A strong Coinbase performance may boost confidence. Similarly, low unemployment claims could increase demand for riskier assets. However, unexpected negative outcomes could trigger a sell-off. 

The crypto market carries high risk; please conduct your own research before investing. 

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Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady, Warnings Draw Attention 

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), in its May 7, 2025 meeting, kept the interest rate steady at the 4.25%-4.5% range. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) highlighted growing threats to economic growth and employment. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in a press conference, stated, “Large tariff increases could slow the economy, prolong inflation, and increase job losses.” Powell’s remarks were interpreted as criticism of the Trump administration’s trade policies. 

The Fed’s decision to maintain rates heightened market uncertainty. Powell’s tariff warning prompted investors to adopt a cautious stance. Despite this, alternative assets like Bitcoin saw an upswing. 

President Donald Trump, on the same day, emphasized that tariffs on China would not be lifted. Although talks with Chinese officials were scheduled for the weekend in Switzerland, Trump showed no signs of compromise. This escalated global trade tensions. Trump stated, “Our trade policies will strengthen the U.S. economy,” reaffirming his commitment to his approach. 

U.S. stock markets experienced volatility following the Fed’s decision and tariff tensions. The S&P 500 rose by 0.2%. The Dow Jones gained 200 points, or 0.5%, driven by gains in banking stocks. However, the Nasdaq fell 0.4% due to losses in technology stocks. Notably, Alphabet dropped 6% amid rumors of a new AI-focused search engine. Apple also lost 1% in value. While banking stocks rallied, the technology sector underperformed due to tariff concerns. 

Bitcoin Surge and Profit-Taking 

Following the Fed’s decision, Bitcoin rose 2%, approaching $97,000. According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin gained over 20% in the past week. CryptoQuant’s analysis indicated that investors accelerated profit-taking. Daily realized profits exceeded $1 billion, signaling an advanced stage of the bull market. 

CryptoQuant noted that high profit-taking could increase the risk of a pullback. However, if profit-taking slows, Bitcoin could enter a new upward trend. The Fed’s interest rate policies indirectly influence crypto markets. JPMorgan analysts predict that the Fed’s cautious stance may sustain volatility in crypto markets. 

Post-Fed Decision Outlook 

Powell warned that tariff increases could fuel inflation and slow growth. “We won’t rush into rate cuts,” Powell said, emphasizing a focus on economic data. Analysts predict the Fed could implement two rate cuts in 2025. However, Trump’s policies may alter these expectations. Goldman Sachs forecasts a potential rate cut in June 2025, though tariff policies’ impact on inflation could delay this timeline. 

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Fed’s Move Could Ignite the Bear Market!

On March 8, Timothy Peterson posted on X, saying, “It only needs one trigger. I think that trigger may be as simple as the Fed not cutting rates at all this year.” Just a day earlier, Jerome Powell had stated that there’s no rush to lower interest rates.

Speaking in New York, Powell remarked, “We do not need to be in a hurry and are well-positioned to wait for greater clarity.” These statements have increased uncertainty in the markets.

Could Bitcoin Drop to $57,000?

Peterson, using his Nasdaq decline model, estimated that if a bear market begins, Nasdaq could drop by 17%. Adapting this to Bitcoin, he predicted a 33% decrease, potentially bringing BTC down to $57,000.

However, Peterson noted that such a drop is unlikely. “Traders and opportunists hover over Bitcoin like vultures,” he explained, adding that if Bitcoin approaches $57,000, buyers will likely step in before it gets that low. He expects Bitcoin to bottom closer to the $70,000 range.

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

Peterson recalled how, in 2022, many expected Bitcoin to bottom at $12,000, but it only dropped to $16,000. “The same could happen here. If the bottom is expected at $57,000, a 25% higher level would be around $71,000,” he added.

Bitcoin was trading near $71,000 on November 6, after Donald Trump won the US election. It then rallied for a month, surpassing $100,000 by December 5.

In January 2025, Arthur Hayes forecasted a correction in BTC prices to the $70,000–$75,000 range. He also predicted a rally to $250,000 by the end of the year. Blockware Solutions offered a more conservative bear case, projecting Bitcoin could reach $150,000 in 2025 if the Fed reverses its stance on interest rate cuts.

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