Bitcoin Mining Difficulty and December Forecast

The next Bitcoin mining difficulty adjustment is scheduled for December 11 at block 927,360. According to CoinWarz, difficulty will increase slightly from 149.30 trillion to 149.80 trillion, placing additional pressure on miners. The previous adjustment reduced difficulty from 152.2 trillion to 149.3 trillion, shortening the average block time to about 9.97 minutes.

Rising difficulty directly impacts miners’ operational costs and decision-making. Hashprice values play a critical role in determining whether miners continue running their machines or scale back operations.

Hashprice and Miner Behavior

Hashrate Index reports that hashprice is currently 38.3 PH/s per day, a recovery from the record low below 35 PH/s seen on November 21. When hashprice falls below 40 PH/s, miners must decide whether to power down machines or optimize energy use.

Behavioral analysis in the mining sector shows that low hashprice periods slow operations and extend block production times. This can temporarily affect Bitcoin network security and transaction confirmation speeds.

What Is Mining Difficulty?

Bitcoin mining difficulty is a metric used to balance block production. It determines how easy or hard it is to find a new block.

The network aims to create a block roughly every 10 minutes. If miners find blocks too quickly, difficulty rises; if they are slow, difficulty decreases, keeping block times stable.

Difficulty depends on total network computing power. Adding more miners or stronger hardware makes blocks easier to find, prompting the network to increase difficulty.

In practice:

• Low difficulty allows miners to find blocks with less energy.

• High difficulty requires more energy and computing power, raising mining costs.

This mechanism ensures Bitcoin network security while affecting miner profitability.

Supply Chain and Geopolitical Risks

The mining industry also faces geopolitical risks. The United States is investigating Bitmain, the world’s largest mining hardware manufacturer. The DHS is checking whether their machines could be accessed remotely for espionage.

Bitmain dominates 80% of the ASIC market used in proof-of-work cryptocurrencies. U.S. restrictions or sanctions could disrupt hardware supply, indirectly affecting hashprice and miner decisions.

The combination of rising difficulty in December, persistently low hashprice, and geopolitical risks highlights the critical importance of strategic operational decisions for Bitcoin miners.

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Bitcoin miners sold more BTC than they produced in April, reaching the highest sell-off rate since the 2022 bear market. According to TheMinerMag, publicly traded miners sold 115% of their production, marking a significant record. 

This aggressive selling came just before Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $109,000 in May. However, this price surge did not deliver the expected revenue increase for bitcoin miners. Rising hashrate and declining transaction fees significantly reduced bitcoin miners income. As a result, many companies rapidly sold off their reserves to stay afloat. Notably, the 15,000 BTC sale on April 7 was the third-largest outflow of the year. 

Hashrate Rises, Profitability Declines 

Analysts Jonathan Petersen and Jan Aygul stated, “BTC mining profitability fell 6.6% in April due to a 6.7% increase in network hashrate.” This statement clearly highlights the challenges faced by the industry. 

According to a Jefferies report, U.S.-based publicly traded mining companies produced 3,277 BTC in April, a notable decline from 3,534 BTC in March. Their share of the network also dropped from 24.8% to 24.1%. Hashprice (earnings per unit of computing power) fell from $63/PH/s in December to $55/PH/s in April. This decline directly impacted mining revenues, forcing companies to sell BTC. 

Bitcoin Nears $110K as Institutional Interest Surges

Despite these challenges, some companies continue to expand capacity. CleanSpark increased its hash power to 42 EH/s, maintaining its growth strategy. MARA Holdings, with 57.3 EH/s, remains the industry leader. However, these investments often create more operational pressure in the short term rather than boosting revenue. Still, they stand out as a key strategy for firms aiming for long-term positioning. Rising energy costs, tax pressures, and intensifying competition continue to challenge mining companies. Nevertheless, Bitcoin’s price increase still offers promising signals for the sector. 

The high rate of BTC sales by miners in April is a clear indicator of market pressure. Declining profitability, rising hashrate, and low transaction fees pushed companies to sell more than they produced. 

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“If you’re mining Bitcoin, you already understand why this asset is valuable long-term,” Glover stated. “You don’t want to sell it.”

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This debt-based approach is similar to strategies used by companies like MicroStrategy, which raise capital through debt and equity to acquire BTC and profit from the currency divergence.

Rising Competition, Falling Margins

The BTC mining hashprice, a key profitability metric, has plummeted due to increasing network difficulty. As more powerful machines are deployed, costs rise and profit margins shrink.

Adding to the pressure, U.S. trade tariffs on tech imports are inflating prices of essential mining equipment like ASICs. These conditions threaten the viability of smaller operators in the sector.

In March 2025, miners collectively sold 40% of their mined supply—marking a trend reversal since the April 2024 halving and the highest monthly liquidation rate since October 2024.

BTC-Backed Loans May Be A Lifeline

In such a climate, Bitcoin-backed loans could be a strategic lifeline. They offer operational liquidity without sacrificing long-term asset value.

As Glover noted, “If you believe BTC will rise, why sell it now and lose future upside?”

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

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