What Does Hayes Hold in His Crypto Portfolio?

According to his recent statement, Hayes currently holds four cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ether, Zcash, and HYPE. For an investor previously recognized for broad altcoin exposure—including speculative segments such as meme tokens—this streamlined selection marks a notable shift.

Of the four, only Zcash and HYPE fall outside the two largest digital assets by market capitalization. The absence of a wider basket of alternative tokens suggests a more selective stance in the current market cycle. This repositioning may reflect a recalibration of risk amid evolving liquidity conditions and macroeconomic uncertainty.

Hayes is also a co-founder of the Maelström fund, which has previously taken sizable positions across various altcoin sectors. In contrast, his present holdings indicate a tighter and more deliberate crypto strategy.

Exposure Beyond Digital Assets

The portfolio is not limited to cryptocurrencies. Hayes outlined allocations to equities, mining companies focused on gold, silver, and copper, major oil producers, and energy firms operating in Latin America. He also referenced defense industry companies—described in his own words as “merchants of death”—indicating exposure to large-scale military and defense contractors.

In addition, he confirmed ownership of physical gold. This detail reinforces a broader macro thesis centered on hard assets and inflation resilience.

No Cash Position, Focus on Productive Assets

Another striking aspect of Hayes’ allocation is the absence of cash. He has previously noted that U.S. Treasury holdings can provide passive income sufficient to cover expenses. Rather than holding idle liquidity, his approach appears oriented toward income-generating or store-of-value assets.

Overall, the structure of his portfolio reflects a macro-conscious framework: limited but high-conviction crypto exposure combined with commodities, energy, and defensive equities. The reduced number of digital assets suggests heightened selectivity rather than retreat, signaling a disciplined approach in uncertain market conditions.

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High FDV and Low Circulating Supply: A Hazardous Combination

Speaking on Altcoin Daily, the former BitMEX CEO described Monad as a classic example of a “high FDV, low-float VC token.” Fully Diluted Value (FDV) represents the valuation of a project if all tokens were already released. Hayes emphasized that when there is a significant gap between FDV and the available circulating supply, the imbalance often creates dangerous market dynamics.

He noted that such projects typically see an early price surge, only to experience aggressive selloffs once insider or investor allocations begin unlocking. In his view, Monad fits this pattern: a token that might enjoy an initial rally but lacks evidence of long-term sustainable demand. “A strong early pump does not imply lasting utility,” he cautioned.

Most Layer-1 Networks Fail to Survive

Hayes further argued that only a select few layer-1 protocols will maintain relevance over time. Historically, he said, new networks struggle to secure meaningful adoption. For the next market cycle, he believes only Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Zcash stand a realistic chance of remaining dominant.

Monad, meanwhile, raised $225 million in a funding round led by Paradigm last year and officially launched its mainnet recently, along with its native MON token.

Liquidity Expansion Could Ignite the Next Bull Market

Despite his skepticism toward Monad, Hayes maintains a broadly bullish outlook for the crypto market. He expects global liquidity to expand as the United States enters a politically charged period and economic growth softens, potentially prompting renewed monetary easing. He argued that the market is still in the early stages of this cycle, with major liquidity-driven rallies yet to unfold.

He also downplayed the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle narrative, asserting that previous booms were shaped not by halvings but by global credit expansion led by the U.S. and China.

Privacy Technologies Set to Lead the Next Narrative

Looking forward, Hayes anticipates that privacy-focused solutions will play a central role in the next major trend. He expects zero-knowledge technologies and privacy coins to attract renewed attention, while institutions increasingly gravitate toward Ethereum for stablecoin and tokenization infrastructure. He also revealed that Zcash has become the second-largest holding in his family office, Maelstrom.

What is Monad Coin (MON)?

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A Market Disconnect: Bitcoin Falls as Major Indexes Hold Near Highs

One of Hayes’ central observations is the unusual divergence between Bitcoin and traditional markets. While BTC has experienced a steep pullback, equities such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain close to their peak levels. Hayes interprets this as an anomaly, suggesting that something fundamental within the financial ecosystem is beginning to crack.

He adds that the rally seen after April’s geopolitical tensions was not sustainable. Instead of representing genuine market strength, the upward movement was largely fueled by ETF inflows. Once those inflows slowed, the bullish momentum quickly faded.

Potential Downside Targets: “Bitcoin Could Slide to $80,000–$85,000”

Hayes describes Bitcoin as a barometer of liquidity conditions. As liquidity weakens globally, he expects BTC to face deeper declines. The current price behavior, he argues, aligns with the early stages of a developing credit crisis—one that could soon reveal itself more broadly. In this environment, Hayes believes a drop toward the $80,000 to $85,000 range remains a realistic possibility.

After the Crash: “Money Printing Will Accelerate” Said Hayes

If a full-scale financial disruption emerges, Hayes anticipates rapid intervention from both the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve. Such a scenario would likely involve aggressive monetary expansion. While painful in the short term, he suggests this response would ultimately set the stage for Bitcoin’s next major leg upward, potentially pushing the cryptocurrency toward the $200,000 to $250,000 zone once liquidity floods back into the system.

Looking Toward 2026: “China Will Ignite the Next Bull Cycle”

Beyond the immediate market pressures, Hayes sees China playing a critical role in shaping the next major crypto bull run. He notes that Beijing is currently reluctant to ease monetary policy due to its desire to project a strong yuan. For China to begin expanding, the United States must first take the lead in boosting liquidity. Once that happens, Hayes believes China will follow—an event he expects to ignite the 2026 crypto bull cycle.

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Bitcoin, despite recent price corrections and declining investor appetite due to ongoing global trade tensions, is still on track to exceed $1.8 million by 2035. This assessment was made by Joe Burnett, Director of Market Research at Unchained.

Speaking during the Chainreaction live broadcast on X, Burnett stated that Bitcoin is in a long-term bull cycle and could potentially surpass or rival gold’s $21 trillion market capitalization within the next decade.

Despite tariff uncertainty limiting risk appetite among investors, research analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects.

“When I think about where Bitcoin will be in 10 years, there are two models I admire,” said Burnett, “One is the parallel model, which suggests that Bitcoin will be about $1.8 million in 2035.” “The other is Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin 24 model, which suggests Bitcoin will be $2.1 million by 2035.”

Burnett emphasized that both are “good base cases,” adding that Bitcoin‘s trajectory could exceed these predictions depending on broader macroeconomic factors.

Bitcoin’s Long-Term Outlook Remains Bullish

“The automobile industry is significantly more valuable than the horse and buggy industry,” said Burnett, adding that Bitcoin’s more advanced technological properties will help it surpass the $21 trillion market capitalization of gold. He continued:

“The gold market is an estimated $21 trillion market. If Bitcoin just hit $21 trillion and had Bitcoin-gold parity, Bitcoin would be $1 million per coin today.”

Since U.S. President Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20, global markets have been under pressure due to heightened trade war fears. Hours after taking office, Trump threatened to impose sweeping import tariffs aimed at reducing the country’s trade deficit, negatively impacting both equities and cryptocurrency markets.

Bitcoin’s role as a safe-haven asset may reemerge amid ongoing trade war concerns, while physical gold and tokenized gold remain the current winners.

Tariff fears led tokenized gold trading volume to surge to a two-year high this week, topping $1 billion for the first time since the 2023 U.S. banking crisis.

Strong Hands Buy During Drawdowns

Bitcoin’s volatility is decreasing during both bear and bull markets, signaling its growing maturity as an asset class.

Burnett noted that while another 80% drawdown during future bear markets is possible, it will serve as a robust acquisition period for the “strongest” holders, adding:

“The highs bring Bitcoin attention, and the deep, dark bear markets move coins into the hands of the strongest, most convicted holders as fast as possible.”

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom, predicted Bitcoin could climb to $250,000 by the end of 2025 if the U.S. Federal Reserve formally enters a quantitative easing cycle.

Despite the optimistic predictions, investors remain cautious and continue “rebalancing their portfolios” but are unlikely to take on significant positions in the next 90 days before markets gain more clarity on global tariff negotiations, said Enmanuel Cardozo, market analyst at real-world asset tokenization platform Brickken.

“With money flowing out of Bitcoin ETFs, investors are looking for safer spots to hold their cash right now, including strong currencies. Gold’s a traditional vehicle in these cases and a go-to when markets are uncertain,” he added.

Since the beginning of 2025, gold prices have risen over 23%, outperforming Bitcoin, which has fallen by more than 10% year-to-date, according to TradingView data.

This content does not constitute investment advice. Markets carry high risk, and it is important to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

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