Historically, September is known as a bearish month for Bitcoin, and this year seems to be following that trend. After starting the month on a downward trajectory, BTC fell to around $57,000 but has since recovered slightly, climbing back above $59,000 in the past 24 hours.

Investors remain cautious, concerned that Bitcoin may experience a more significant drop given the historical patterns of September. However, CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno has projected that Bitcoin’s closing price for the month will be $55,000.

In a post on his X account, Moreno shared that he conducted a price analysis for Bitcoin in September, simulating the price movement by factoring in historical daily returns throughout the month.

Based on his simulation, Moreno stated that the end-of-month closing price is expected to be $55,000.

He also noted that Bitcoin’s price could fluctuate between $44,000 and $66,000 during the month.

“I simulated Bitcoin’s price for September. On average, it will be slightly lower, ending the month at $55,000. Most of the price movement is expected to be within the $44,000 to $66,000 range. These simulations only consider historical daily returns for the month of September.”

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Current Market Landscape

Over the past year, Ether has underperformed Bitcoin. Bitcoin has gained market dominance with over $14 billion in inflows to spot ETFs in 2024. This dynamic has created a significant divergence between the two leading cryptocurrencies. However, the anticipated launch of Ether ETFs could reverse this trend.

Short-Term Volatility and Long-Term Outlook

Lunde and Zimmerman acknowledge that it is reasonable to expect ETH prices to “stumble” immediately after the launch of the ETFs. This short-term volatility mirrors the pattern observed during Bitcoin ETF launches. However, the analysts believe that inflows into spot funds will support ETH’s price over time. They maintain a bullish outlook on ETH, stating that they expect net inflows equivalent to 0.75-1% of ETH’s circulating supply in the five months following the ETF launch.

Lunde wrote, “ETFs are a solid catalyst for ETH’s relative strength as flows accumulate over the summer.” He sees current ETH/BTC prices as an attractive opportunity for patient investors.

Market Sentiment and ETH/BTC Dynamics

Despite the analysts’ bullish outlook, the market does not seem to be “stubbornly” following suit. This sentiment is evident in the fact that Ether futures are trading at a discount to Bitcoin futures, and ETH is trading at 0.055 BTC per 1 ETH. Over the past 12 months, ETH’s value has been steadily declining relative to Bitcoin, reaching an annual low of 0.045 on May 24. However, following the SEC’s approval of Ether ETFs, Ether’s price against Bitcoin quickly reversed course, surprising analysts and pushing the ETH/BTC pair to 0.055.

Leverage and Market Expectations

Despite the reversal, Lunde and Zimmerman note that open interest in Ether futures remains “relentlessly” high. This suggests that many investors are using high leverage to bet on ETH’s potential price action leading up to the ETF launch. This high leverage reflects a strong belief among investors that Ether will outperform following the ETF launch.

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Runes Maintains Dominance in Bitcoin Transactions

Runes has continued to dominate Bitcoin (BTC) transactions; however, Bitcoin miners’ revenue from this area has declined slightly since the record-breaking halving event. Since its launch on April 20, more than 2.38 million Runes have been transacted on the Bitcoin blockchain, representing 68% of all Bitcoin transactions during that period, according to a Dune Analytics dashboard shared by blockchain research firm Crypto Koryo.

Bitcoin’s Runes Craze Continues

Runes saw its biggest day on April 23 with over 750,000 transactions, but that number more than halved the following day to 312,000 transactions. These transactions contributed to approximately 70% of mining fees on halving day. Since then, the daily figure has fluctuated between 33% and 69%.

However, industry experts are divided on whether Runes can provide a sustainable revenue stream for Bitcoin miners. Additionally, there is already an inequality in the mining fees earned through Rune transactions.

The post  Runes Dominates Bitcoin Transactions Despite Declining Miner Revenue appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Despite the meme coin’s efforts to maintain its uptrend, a concentration of liquidations could lead to a 14-20% drop in the coming days.

PEPE bulls managed to secure some gains over the past few days. The critical support level at $0.0000062 was retested, resulting in a positive reaction.

However, declining trading volume in the meme coin is a cause for concern. Data shows a decrease in the number of new addresses over the past few days. Falling daily active addresses could also indicate a decline in demand.

Should You Be Concerned About PEPE’s Trading Volume?

PEPE has maintained an uptrend on longer timeframes. The low swing at $0.00000581 is the first hurdle bears need to overcome to turn the market structure bearish.

With the decline in trading volume, it becomes evident that the meme coin is in a consolidation phase. Additionally, the RSI technical indicator stands at 46. While a drop below the neutral 50 level indicates a preference for downward momentum, a drop below 40 is required to confirm a strong downtrend.

The Chaikin Money Flow, indicating a strong capital outflow from the market, is positioned below -0.05. This suggests that further losses are imminent.

What’s Next for PEPE?

The liquidation heatmap shows that the region between $0.000006 and $0.0000062 is a critical level.

Despite the short-term positive reaction in PEPE’s price, it may choose to deepen its decline to reach the nearby liquidation levels.

The key level to watch closely in the coming week is $0.0000056. This level could be PEPE’s next destination. If the bears assert their dominance and manage to reverse the trend, the coming week could witness significantly more losses.

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Bitcoin’s recent bullish run faces a critical hurdle at $52,000. This resistance level previously stalled rallies in 2021 and could trigger a pullback, according to Swissblock. They view this potential dip as a “necessary” cooldown after weeks of rapid gains.

Fear Not, the Bulls Are Still Charging (Bitcoin)

Despite the pullback warning, the overall outlook remains bullish. Swissblock suggests any correction above $47,500 represents a buying opportunity. FalconX echoes this sentiment, emphasizing the strong trading volumes supporting the uptrend.

Eyes on the Prize: $57,500 and Beyond

10x Research analyst Markus Thielen sets his sights even higher, targeting $57,500. He cites robust liquidity and growing demand for Bitcoin futures as key drivers for this potential surge.

While a short-term pullback may be on the horizon, long-term optimism prevails. Bitcoin’s underlying strength and growing institutional interest suggest higher prices await, making any potential dips attractive entry points for savvy investors. So, fasten your seatbelts and prepare for a potentially volatile, but ultimately rewarding, journey in the Bitcoin market.

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